It seems to me that a lot of people are getting sidetracked by "Big Horse/Little Horse" and missing the main point that tiny weight discrepancies are OF NO IMPORTANCE in horse racing due to numerous other factors (of which size MAY be one) acting as counter-influences. That Kiwi jumps to the conclusion (see below) that Bigger means Fatter, and therefore unfitter, shows the enormity of the problem. We can't know the effects of most variables and shouldn't be breaking our heads over every miniscule difference between the horses. Let the trainer decide if his/ her horse is "right" and look for clues that the Trainer is CONFIDENT. They know their horses better than anyone else and THEY have weighed ir all up for us. When Cinque Cento appeared at Doomben in The Roses (Group 3 2020m) last Saturday it was senseless to analyse at all. Up 420m and 8 grades after a moderate class 1 win at Gosford, it was "obviously" in too hard a race. So; were the punters right or was Tony Wildman???
The punting public got it horribly wrong because that didn't listen to Tony. The bookies GOT IT RIGHT (for them) because the punters were scared off by the 20s on offer which left them (the bookies) cheering!! They were cheering because the punters were hooked on ratings and thinking of what SHOULD be instead of what COULD be. Keep it simple and keep on winning. Bye for now