Gday All

I doubt there is a bigger Makybe Diva fan than me... but I am not going to back her in the Plate...

There said it

As has been metioned in this thread she is mighty short, too short for my liking. When I rated the race she could only come in 6th, mind you that is a fairly compressed rating spread tho. I have Xcellent on top with no real confidence. Why shouldnt I be confident about this bloke? his form says he wins.. But it is kiwi form, and we know that these days it does'nt always stack up.. I look back over his last 5 starts.. 4 G1 wins out of 5, but the big query is that all the G 1's are kiwi G 1's, he came over here and failed miserably at G1 Level in last year's AJC Derby beaten 10 lengths.. that is why I am not confident..

Lad of the Manor and Lotteria share the next line. Obviously Lotteria is the big over In my opinion, her form has been solid including a close up 3rd in the Epsom and a nice, but close, win in the Gr 2 Shannon. Lad of the Manor has been impressive winning 2 out of his last 3 starts at Gr 2 level and placing in the Turnbull, his last run at G1 level was a 4/7, beaten 4.5 in the Aust Cup earlier in the year.. so maybe class could be a worry.

These 2 are followed by God's Own, who couldnt help but be impressed by THAT win,(there was also a fantastic run in that race from Primus.. get on next time)... His rise to G 1 level is nothing short of astounding, but the dampener for me is there is NO G Boss steering this time and is untried at the distance... and to round out the top 5 is Confectioner... I dont have a real wrap for this bloke but the numbers speak for themselves.. he has performed adequately at G 1 level, has seen the track, and is yet to be out of the money( 1/1/3) after 5 goes at the distance

Makybe Diva's last G1 was in Japan where she finished midfield.. but as we know that race has proven to be a resonable form race.. She has contested 3 Gr 2 for 2 wins and a placing in her last 3 starts.. I fear the track may well beat her here.. They run this race at Flemington.. she just wins

So with no confidence that is my opinion of the Cox.. Xcellent has the superior G 1 form of late.. and deserves to be looked at very closely

Below are my full field ratings for the big race

Good Luck if you choose to have a bet

8 XCELLENT 34
2 LAD OF THE MANOR 32
12 LOTTERIA 32
13 GOD'S OWN 30
4 CONFECTIONER 28
10 MAKYBE DIVA 27
14 HOTEL GRAND 26
5 DESERT WAR 24
1 GREYS INN 24
6 FIELDS OF OMAGH 23
11 SKY CUDDLE 22
9 OUTBACK PRINCE 21
3 SUPER KID 15
7 TOSEN DANDY 11

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Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

I agree. If the race was at Flemington, it wouldn't even be a contest. A lot different here.

I agree at Flemington she wins but it isn't this is the worst track in australia to try and pick a winner at because there as so many horses that do not handle the surface and the ones that do grow an extra leg when they are on it. I feel that there are only 3 horses that will handle the surface they are Lad of the Manor, Greys Inn who ran a mighty race on the Strathayr in Hong Kong behind Vengance of Rain and Fields of Omagh who has shown an affinity with the track I just question if he is going aswell as in the past.

I amnot saying that the others won't handle the track I just question if they will find there best on it where I think the other 3 will. I would like to say one last thing I have never said that Makybe Diva cannot beat these horses I did say she won't beat Lad of the Manor at this track in this race.

XPT

I couldn't agree more on the Kiwi horses mate I think the only one that has ever done anything good for me is Miss Potential the rest owe me alot other than maybe Calveen yet to win but has run good placings at very good odds.

Diva just needs the perfect sit and a clear run for the short straight and the story is over. That said, getting the perfect sit and a clear run tends to be the hard part of a race. Thats up to the jockey. They say discounting her would be punting suicide. They said that about El Sig as well. I think this time however, they are probably right.

Xcellent, well everything about his form says winner. Except of course unless you add some water. Too many other horses with decent wet track form here. Sure, it was only one start in the wet, but 10 lengths doesnt bode well. Also, as XPT has already pointed out, NZ form in Australia doesnt a champion make.

Lad will make a very bold showing. But he is giving too much to the Diva. This isnt one of his better distances, and the most he really has going for him is a perfect record at this track. But as with the diva, leaving him out is bad Mojo..

As for who is going to win. I think for once, thats a good question. With other races, its never been so hard. Sure, my pick may not have been the winner, but at least I could actually pick one before. Thinking I might sit the plate out this year and concentrate one whats happening in sydney..

Besides, if what I expect to happen in the first in sydney does happen, I doubt that I will still be coherant come the Cox Plate.

111 8 Xcellent (NZ)
102 2 Lad of the Manor (NZ)
100 13 God's Own (14)
98 12 Lotteria
97 10 Makybe Diva (GB)
96 14 Hotel Grand
92 4 Confectioner

The X factor will come into play here.They say he beat nothing in NZ,but Distinctly Secret is no chaff bandit and ran some great races here.Interesting to note Chris Munces comments about everyone saying his NZ form is suss,but any horse that can miss the start,cop a couple of checks in running,get turned sideways on the turn and still win easily at WFA against older more seasoned horses must have a stack of ability.I believe he will be the next superstar and will prove that status on Saturday.And the $7.50 fixed odds I took will do me nicely.My only concern is the weather,but IMO if he does not reach great heights this year,he certainly will next year.Maybe I am a year too early,only time will tell.starting this week.

i would hand the race to makybe if there were only 9 or 10 horses in the field yet being 14 she might c a few more ****s on the way home in that case LOTM and Lotteria are her dangers

Hotel Grand for me, if he doesn't get caught wide then he will go mighty close.

be a believer in the diva ......it is BUCKETING down here in Melbourne, absolutely BUCKETING i tells ya.
Have something on Sarerra in Race 9 #9, a nice daily double....
then put it all on TREWLY SPECIAL on Sat night at the Meadows dishlickers, in the Topgun race.

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straight to the rails....