Ana Ivanovic v Maria Vento-Kabchi
Qatar Open

New 'wonderkid' Ivanovic up against a very ordinary Vento-Kabchi whose recent form has been, to say the least, poor. Ivanovic has some great scalps in 2005 and recently won her first WTA tournament (Canberra).

$1.33 available WillHill - 1 unit.

Players to be weary in Qatar - Bartoli (suspect knee), Bovina (resuming form long injury layoff), Sharapova(resuming from flu), Suarez (resuming from long layoff - dodgy foot)

Dally Randriantefy v Angela Haynes
Acupulco

True clay courter and experienced Randriantefy up against young hard court player Haynes who rarely competes on the dirt. Haynes is also coming off some ordinary form last week losing to qulaifier Bondarenko. Career marred by nagging shoulder injury.

$1.40 available at 5Dimes - 1 unit.

Players to be weary of in Acupulco - LlagosteraVives (recent tendonitis), Domachowska (recent shoulder strain)

Interesting first post...

I thought WTA was an abbreviation for Wangaratta.
Surely it's not Weight To Age?

Stosur vs Sugiyama
Qatar

Stosur's progressed through the qualies even though she was beaten by the impressive Kirilenko in the third round. However both girls knew before the game started that the loser would progress to the main draw as the "lucky loser" - so I'm not too concerned about the result. Sugiyama's played
poorly since last year's US Open and has lost her four games this season (including some ordinary opponents). She's still a good player but is getting old by tennis standards so her career may well have peaked (she ceratinly doesn't move as well anymore). Stosur'warm up through the qualies, her strong start to 2005 season (two hardcourt finals appearances), and her ability to hold her own serve make her good value.

Stosur $1.87 @ SportOdds

Week 1

14 Bets: 9 Wins 5 Losses
At flat stakes: Bet 14 units; Win 0.37 units; ROI 2.6%.

A below target week but always 'tricky' at this time of year moving from hard to clay (Acupulco bets). There were a few surprises during the week - Domachowska's loss but beaten by a better player on the day so no complaints. Gagliardi is my 'whinge of the week' - she lead Serra Zanetti
4-1 in the first set and was 40-0 serving for 5-1. The set went to a tie break!! Gagliardi broke Zanetti but managed to lose the set. Gagliardi was then serving first in the second set (an advantage in tennis), broke Serra Zanetti but went on to lose. This isn't a proper 'whinge' - just an opportunity to make note's about Gagliardi's consistency.

Dubai hardcourt this week - should be some good value opportunities.

Schnyder v Maleeva
Dubai

Fourteenth ranked Schnyder has - despite a few minor hiccups - had a strong start to 2005. Her 14-4 season includes good wins over Golovin and Dementieva and a straightforward win over Maleeva (rank 29) in Sydney. Schnyder's coming off some ordinary form by her standards- she didn't play particularly well in her loss to Kirilenko last week and was fortunate to
get past Na Li the week prior. However her 131/88 hardcourt record reflects her experience and ability and while the overall h2h favours Maleeva 3-2, their 2 hardcourt encounters have gone to Schnyder (the other games predated were also some years ago). The Bulgarian is certainly no easy-beat having put up a good 3-set fight against Molik on Antwerp's indoor carpet a few weeks back and another 3-set battle against the in-form Hantuchova in Qatar last week (note she lost both games). However Maleeva is more of an all rounder than a hardcourt specialist (95/88 on hard) and she lacks a decisive weapon. Her season was also interrupted by a shoulder strain earlier this month (withdrew Tokyo).

Schnyder $1.53 @ 5Dimes
(This is an early line, there maybe better prices).


Notes: A couple of players to be wary of in Dubai: Sania Mirza - last start winner but resuming from an ankle injury that's seen her offcourt for two weeks. Paola Suarez - second start back from a long spell and a bit underdone. Jelena Jankovic scratched from Qatar last week with right shoulder strain. Farina Elia's also been struggling with a right shoulder strain.

Pennetta vs Cervanova
Acapulco

The short price has made me think twice about this bet but I believe Pennetta still represents value (rated 72.6%) and that she has the momentum and game to beat Cervanova. There's no doubt Cervanova played extremely well against Randriantefy yesterday - especially during the third set. However finals pressure may count against her - she lost to Loit in her only other finals appearance (Casablanca; Clay; 2004) and has lost her four other semifinal appearances - all on clay. It can be argued that Cervanova has lifted her game and improved more than Pennetta during the week but I still rate her well below the Italian. Of course an upset is always possible and fatigue could be factor in Pennetta's performance - she complained of leg pains during her match with Osterloh - but this didn't seem to affect her yesterday. Luckily Serra Zanetti put in a meek performance in the semi final saving Pennetta from a physically drainig effort. She's also sounding very upbeat: "I like it here very much. I've always said that this is one of my favorite tournaments." Note that Cervanova won their only meeting but this was a hardcourt game in Indian Wells last year.

Pennetta $1.41 @ 5Dimes

Schiavone v Sugiyama
Qatar

I stick by my assessment of Sugiyama and put her win over Stosur down to Samantha's very ordinary play. Her serve and volley was so confused that Sugiyama continuously passed her down the line. Schiavone, while not setting the world on fire this season, has only lost to quality players such as Myskina and Molik. She also has solid 3-0 h2h record against Sugiyama with these wins coming while Sugiyama was in top form.

Schiavone $1.51 @ Pinnacle.

Domachowska v Osterloh
Acapulco

According to yesterday’s interview, Domachowska is over her shoulder complaint and displaying confidence. She traveled to Mexico a week early to acclimatize to the conditions after her short layoff so should be ready for the match. Domachowska prefers clay and is 53 wins/23 losses while Osterloh is 24/41 on the dirt. The first round didn’t provide much insight – Domachowska warming up by thrashing a “no name” and Osterloh getting past a lackluster Waters (who is no star on clay either).

Domachowska $1.40 generally available

Randriantefy vs Perebiynis

Slightly riskier proposition. Randriantefy is one those players who always starts the season slowly and then improves during the clay swing. Her 108/55 record on the dirt speaks for itself, even though a fair proportion of those games were on the end of year clay court Challenger circuit. Perebiynis is no slouch on the dirt but doesn't have Randriantefy's experience. Her poor start to the season and early departure from Bogata (clay) last week may count against her. Perebiynis won their only encounter but this was at the Olympics and on a different surface so I'm not sure what conclusions can be drawn.Slight edge to Randraintefy at the price.

Randriantefy $1.76 @ 5Dimes

Thanks for the tip on the WTA.

Didn't have much on but enjoyed the win

Do you post here often?

karla