The Baseball Formula Newsletter
Volume 4, Number 97

Plays for:
Sat July 16

Dogs Formula:
YTD Performance:
+ 15.72 units** (based on 1 unit per play)**

Yesterday's Recap:
+ 0.04 (based on 1 unit per play)

American League:
--Yankees lost (did they ever)
--Los Angeles, not Minnesota was the game time dog at Wagerline and they won
--Chisox won

National League:
--D'Backs brought the tying run to the plate in the 9th, but couldn't pull
off the miracle comeback.

Game Times are Eastern Standard

Dog Plays are in CAPS

----------------------------------------------------

Dogs Formula

See below for our line grading policy.** It will explain how we are coming up
with our official plays each day and how we are grading our official plays.**
Or re-read the "Dogs Line Policy" email that was sent out.


===========

Notes:**

File this in the "hilarious" file:** Washington was dumb enough to pick up
Yankee dumpee Mike Stanton.** In Stanton's debut with Washington last night, he
came in to a tie game in Milwaukee, with the Brewers batting in the bottom of
the 10th with runners at 1st and 3rd and one out.**

So what does Stanton do?** He balks in the winning run.** Absolutely pathetic.**


We just can't see the Nationals holding on to their divisional lead for much
longer.** They can't score runs, and sooner or later, the odds they are defying
is going to catch up with them in all likelihood.**

-----

With the dramatic downfall of the Dodgers, it is time for their GM to be
fired. They started the season so well, and are now playing like one of the worst
teams in baseball. Their GM made some bad moves and dismantled a division
winning team from last year.

================

Final Line Grading Policy for Marginal Dogs:

In the event that the play changes from the overnight newsletter, the closing
line at Wagerline.com will be used to grade the game:
http://www.wagerline.com/mlb.asp

The exception to this is if Wagerline mistakenly posts no line for the game
(NL) or when Wagerline mistakenly posts the game twice.** In such cases,
Pinnacle's closing line will be used as an emergency backup source.

When we refer to "Pinnacle's closing line," we're referring to the posted
closing line at**theRx.com for the line from Pinnacle sportsbook that is that
webpage.**

Here's where you will find those emergency backup closing lines:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/li...resh=0&period=0

================

Check out the underdog lines at Bowmans.com and Pinnacle to improve your
results.

American League:

New York @ BOSTON +105, 1:15PM...Official play will be on New York IF they
are the game time dog at Wagerline.** Otherwise, play remains on Boston.
NYY: R. Johnson (9-6, 4.16)
BOS: M. Clement (10-2, 3.85)

Chicago @ Cleveland, 1:15PM...Cleveland is currently the dog - NO PLAY ON
CLEVELAND.** Official play will be on Chicago if they are the game time dog at
Wagerline.
CWS: write in: Garland
CLE: J. Westbrook (6-11, 4.67)

LOS ANGELES +138 @ Minnesota, 7PM...Santana could be pitching against God and
he'd still be favored.** Colon is a better pitcher this year.** Los Angeles is
a better team.** Santana is good at home, but as we've said before, the
linesmakers are still hung up on his Cy Young win.** That was last year.** He's much
more average this year.
LAA: B. Colón (11-5, 3.42)
MIN: J. Santana (7-5, 3.98)

BALTIMORE +121 @ Seattle, 10PM...Orioles are kind of like bad tie dye
shirts....they just won't fade away. It keeps it exciting in the AL East. In fact,
the only exciting divisions now are the two Eastern divisions in both leagues.
Down the stretch, MLB will take an attendance hit because of the lack of
good divisional races in baseball.
BAL: B. Chen (7-5, 3.87)
SEA: J. Moyer (8-3, 4.64)

National League:

Houston @ St. Louis, 4:15PM...Houston is currently the dog - NO PLAY ON
HOUSTON.** St. Louis will be the official play if they are the game time dog at
Wagerline.

Devastating 13 innning loss last night for Houston as Pujols' heroic HR
spells doom.
HOU: R. Oswalt (12-7, 2.39)
STL: J. Marquis (8-6, 3.89)

FLORIDA +123 @ Philadelphia, 7PM...Marlins snapped a losing streak last
night, but still find a long road ahead in getting back in the NL East race.
FLA: S. Olsen (1-0, 2.89)
PHI: J. Lieber (8-8, 5.09)

Atlanta @ New York, 7PM...Currently, neither team is the dog. No play on New
York.** Atlanta has weathered the injury storm, and they now have Hudson
back.** Others will be back soon as well.** They'll be hard to beat down the stretch.
Braves will be the play if they are the game time dog at Wagerline.
ATL: T. Hudson (6-5, 3.78)
NYM: V. Zambrano (4-7, 3.58)

ARIZONA +197 @ San Diego, 10PM...Vargas' ERA has actually improved recently.**
That gives you an idea of how much of a longhshot this is.** Arizona scored 5
in the top half of the 6th inning, then gave up 5 runs in the bottom half last
night. Just another reason why they don't have enough to win the NL West.
ARI: C. Vargas (3-4, 6.70)
SD: J. Peavy (7-3, 3.14)


--------------------------------------------------

======================================

Our comments next to some the plays are just our opinions.** Our opinions do
not factor into the formula.** Playing dogs can be a little daunting at times.**
Given that, some of our comments next to the games can sound slightly
worrisome.**

The natural tendency in wagering is to think that the favorite is going to
win, which is why they are the favorite.** But, we do have a long term edge here
with this formula.

Our opinions on the games can throw some people off.** But it bears repeating
- our subjective opinions are just that - opinions.**** We go with the plays the
formula is giving us.** Our personal opinion of the plays do not factor into
the formula.**

When the formula puts up a play such as Toronto to beat Boston, it doesn't
necessarily mean it expects to win THAT game.** But the formula has demonstrated
in the past that it has a long-term edge in winning just enough of those games
to make a difference.** The value lies in hundreds of such dog games spread
out over a long period of time.** That is why we stress taking a long-term
approach with this formula.

======================================

For international subscribers, and those not too familiar with baseball
wagering: In blue links, you see the starting pitchers and their YTD individual
records (won-lost, followed by their E.R.A. (Earned Run Average).** Clicking those
links will give you some information and stats on those pitchers.** Starting
pitching is a key determinant in the outcome of the game.

======================================

Grading Policy:
At this time, the closing lines from Pinnacle are
used as the benchmark in determining which teams
are dogs.

Here's where you will find those closing lines:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/li...resh=0&period=0

On that webpage, Pinnacle is listed as the first sportsbook
on the left.

Lines are from PinnacleSports.com at time
of publishing or in the event that the play changes
because of a line change, the closing line at
Pinnacle's closing lines will be used to grade the game.

We only consider the official plays to be
the selected teams that are dogs at game time
(the closing line).**

In some cases, the lines may shift so that the dog
at the time of publishing becomes the favorite
by game time and visa versa.** Usually this does
not happen, but does occasionally if the line
is marginal early on.**

Remember, only dogs are plays--never
favorites for this formula.

Some subscribers choose to just keep the overnight
dog that is published in the newsletter.

Recommendations:
All plays are ACTION plays unless noted otherwise
(this means that pitchers don't have to be selected)

Make sure you play the moneyline, and not the
runline (the spread) for this formula.

Note:** We highly recommend
wagering the same amount for each
play, and playing the games to "risk"
that amount, rather than to "win" that
amount.

======================================

Good resources for keeping up
with Major League Baseball:

Official Site of Major League Baseball
Live Scores, online audio/TV coverage
http://www.mlb.com

ESPN.com
Live scores, informative articles
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/index

USA Today's Baseball Section
Comprehensive coverage from "the Nation's Newspaper."
Excellent for statistics
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/front.htm

Sports Illustrated Baseball Section
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/

Yahoo's Baseball Section
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb

Good Luck!

The Baseball Formula Team

======================================

Good resource for watching the games live:

MLB.com offers an affordable package where you
Can watch the games live on your computer.** It's
Good for international subscribers in particular.

These sites are good for watching live scores:
MLB.com
http://www.mlb.com

ESPN.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/scoreboard

Sportsline.com
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/scoreboard

Yahoo.com
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/scoreboard

CNNSI.com
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/ba...reboards/today/



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