ive just been trawling the net and this value thing keeps popping up, i dont get it a win is a win surely. if you think a horse is going to win and you expect to get 5 dollars 4 the win but its only showing 2 dollrs why the heck wouldnt you bet, i mean if you are positive this horse is going to win surely any price should do,,,,??

Well surely if you have been reading about this topic, you would know exactly the responses you will get. There are enough threads about this already without everybody posting again.

As BJ mentioned, there really is no need to open a thread on 'value' again as there is heaps on this as well as other forums.

But put it this way: It is reasonable to assume that over any extended run of the spin of a roulette wheel odds/evens, red/black, high/low numbers will approximately split 50/50 of the time so there can be a degree of confidence that this will happen. Only problem is that whatever choice is made does not offer any long-term value, so that despite getting plenty of wins, most gamblers will end up losing because of this lack of value. That's why casino operators stay in business and many gamblers have problems.

It's the same on the punt, back enough under-valued horses and a punter will end up the loser.

Don't fool yourself for one second that this is not the case.

You musyt be stirring. Surely? You can't be serious.

"if you are positive this horse is going to win"

There are no other horses in the race, heh?

I'll take you on. Any game of AFL football you like next season. When you are positive a team is going to win I'll give you odds of $1.05. You'll take it. Why not? It's easy money. You can't lose.

lol
rofl

Mr Logic,

I'll give him odds of $1.01 perhaps he'll bet with me rather than you

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Mate, in case you aren't stirring I'll give you a sensible answer.

However sure you are that a horse is going to win there is still a chance that it won't. Something can always go wrong, from paid off jockeys at the sceptical end of town to faulty gear, to a very attractive filly in the next stall putting our boy off or maybe the other jocks will box our short priced favorite in, I've had that happen to a dead cert. There is always a chance it will not win.
Let's say it's a very good chance and that in 9 out of 10 races nothing will go wrong and it will win, that still leaves a 10% chance it won't.
If you can get $2 about this horse you're laughing. 9 times out of 10 you will come out in front (and end up with $18 from every $10 you bet).
If you can only get 1.05 about it cause everyone else knows it's going to win too YOU SHOULDN'T BET ON IT. Maybe this time you will win and make a little cash but if you bet on the same sort of horse 10 times chances are one of those 10 times you will find something goes wrong (10% chance of it). So for every 10 dollars you bet you only get $9.45 back.

This is a case at the very short end of town but the same applies all the way out to the longshots. If the price you get isn't worth the risk of the horse not winning then don't back it. If you do back these underpriced horses consistently you will come out behind.

Hope that helps,

KV