Does anyone know how to work out the true odds for a horse to run a place. The reason for asking is that over the last month I've had 23 bets and 16 ran a place.

any help is most welcome.

p.s I backed the last winner in bris and it payed $27

mad gambler

Way to go Mad Gambler --- just found this on another site timed 16 minutes before yours.

Does anyone know how to work out the true place odds. I've been doing for my win betting but 8 times out of 10 my will run a place.Any help would be most welcome. Either with pen and paper or a spreadsheet.


Are you moonlighting or did you copy it???

If you check through my earlier posts I believe you will find that I have answered this question comprehensively a number of times.

True Odds for Place:
Falacy !

It just so happens that I've been mucking around with this in Excel. Rather a convoluted process of creating Trifecta & Exacta probability tables, but i'm almost there.

My idea is to put in rated odds of my main chances (say at 90% market) & calculate the true place odds based on those assessments. It can also be used to put in a pre-post market from a bookie.

Can anyone explain why it was at that price.

I had it using my fading front runner theories but it had beaten the favourite home last start by half a length anyway.

One was improving fractionally and the other dying fractionally as a lead horse but the tote price differential says that tote punters are as big a mug as me. Can anyone explain it in other terms. The horse was DULACCA DIVA at $27 on SUPERTAB and the unplaced favourite at $3.50 was ANCA. There was a half kilo weight disadvantage and Beadman riding the favourite. Anyway gave half it back on the Monday.

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pipped at the post