All,

Here is another interesting angle to look into. This could be the basis for a system with a few extra filters.

Rules:
1. Horse must be dropping in "class" by at least 33%. Class is measured by the Prize Money on Offer. For example if todays race is a 12K race and the horse last ran in a 24K race that is a 50% drop in class. ( 12/24 = 0.5 or 50% )

2. Horse must not be first up. This rules out horses that are just looking at cheap races to run into fitness.

3. Horse must have been competitive at its last race. I am going to assume any horse within 5 lengths was competitive.

Essentially we are trying to find horses that are coming up against easiest competition and where they are a genuine chance as they were competitive in the higher class race. We eliminate resumers as they are not always fit.

Any comments ?

FOr those interested. I looked at Ballarat today and there is 1 selection.

Race 4 - Dane Park . Dropping from a 20K race to a 12K race and was only 0.6 lengths from winning.

Good Luck.

A decent drop in class or horses heading further and further North or West [it's all downhill for them when their doing those sort of things]: = Desperate for a win to pay some long overdue trainers or Vet fees? The weight rise usually gets these 'just can't quite win' suckers. If they haven't had a win in the last 12mths. they probably never will again, regardless of how far they drop in class.

Dane Park: 2 only wins ever. A $9k C1 at Swan Hill and it's $4K maiden at Kerang. Down in Class? I don't think so. For a 4yr. old with a record like that it's a Donkey. Still, it might fluke another win. You never know!