Betfair is still the #1 site to watch & continues to support my claim that the market is the #1 key to punting.

i watched the betfair moves in the last @ Canterbury tonite. Ultimate Risk opened up in the ring around the $1.70 mark. There was early support all around for it through most sites.
15min-20min in a $50k lay bet went up. Now most times you might see a $5k lay then a smaller one go up at the same time. This is usually done on Betfair to push the odds out before they remove the lays, swap over and get on at a slightly inflated price. Otherwise known as Manipulation. Its common in most races. Tonite this unusually large $50k lay bet didnt move. It infact chased higher allowing $5k chunks to be taken out of it. This to me was an instant alert. Not only was it a very high amount for a Thursday night at Canterbury but they were more then happy to lay the entire $50k which is a good sign they know somethings up.

Ultimate Risk went out very slightly in the market upon jump. Betting moves will show closely enough to $1.70 open $1.85 jump. Looking through other sites it wasnt obvious to most that something was up and the horse was supported well enough. All it took was 1 layer up to something very unusual for those that watch closely enough.

When they cornered in the last the voice of Ian Craig was heard " Ultimate Risk is going backwards" then " Ultimate Risk finishes last, there must be something terribly a miss with it"

Well, after seeing this layer chase down anyone that came near to get his $50k unloaded it was hardly surprising. $50k starting near $1.70 and chasing punters all the way up to and over $1.80 on a Thursday night meet & "the horse must have gone terribly a miss"....it was hardly a surprise. I was infact waiting to see how it would get beat.

I wonder whether our stewards will take it further. I watch flucs on betfair everyday and this was very out of the box to say the least. Someone knew exactly what was going on. Even on a Saturday, doing your best to get rid of $50k is worthy of a 2nd look at thats mixed up between big bets. This was 1 lone sole with an awfully big gripe with an odds on horse that just happened to tail right off.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

And the backer that ate up the 50K????

You can't really say someone "knew" something was up or the 50K would have been left swinging in the wind.

It was obvious something went wrong with the horse, neither the layer nor the rider knew, it was a lay on a pretty short horse - see it quite often with big money and they tail off.

Odds on that same 50k will appear on the weekend on Sydney races and the horse will win.

It's not as if the horse led and ran out of puff or fitness, or the jock misplaced the horse - something went very wrong.
In fact a 50k on a short horse signals top odds got somewhere else and it was a no risk trade.
Just my opinion.

P.S. It's not just me that knows about favourites at Canterbury, it's pretty well known around racing circles.
Check out the very next meeting at Canterbury and you'll see what I mean.

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Chrome

no backer took him on head to head. its was taken in small chunks all the way through. This $50k was put up much earlier then agencies moving price, so i suggest he didnt get on anywhere else at a better price. I see it more then not that when a horse is getting heavily hit on the lay side and the money is being taken the horse, no matter what its odds will fail to make a placing.
I was making an observation after spending 20min clicking on every site i have up to find a trend to match this layers stash. It wouldnt be at all uncommon for the stable to lay it off. I am aware of such a similiar thing about to happen in the next week for a trainer to retreive lost EI revenue north of the border. Do you have a horse Chrome? Spend time in stables? and have frienDs who do the same? We find this to be a common occurance spanning many years. The rise of Betfair has only made it worse.
The point was before you posted. i made an observation. It was very very unusual to see such a large sum on a Canterbury night meeting want to be layed. They didnt get better odds and tried to lay it off at a profit, as you claim because there was no better odds available anywhere. THey started at $1.70 and drove right up to $1.88 with $25k at that price available. THe horse as it turns out talied well off last. The observation stands & my suspision was correct. You chrome have simply gone against the grain. Perhaps your right but big lay, failed horse is what i am talking about here. Nothing more.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

yes Chrome that was my point. Had the horse been beaten in a photo or something then i guess the layer would have been holding his breath nervously. The fact it got beat by so far was my point. Horses arent like dogs and get weighed before boxing. They can 'fill' a horse very easily. The ways to stop a horse from getting max oxygen levels is very easy to do and is the most obvious way to go about it. The horse was lucky to make it back to the stalls....and was $1.75f. There was no risk.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

King, you're not suggesting that this sport that we all love is FIXED in any way are you?? surely not?

gday Party

I know big lays are beaten on a daily basis. This one was very sus. As Chrome says ( even though i explained i am refering to a 1 off race in CANTERBURY where you dont often see a $50k bet let alone someone laying one, AND chasing them all the way out to $1.88, and also understand the favs always get beaten there.) yes there will be plenty like it on SATURDAY that will get beat.
The stewards have ordered a full vet exam. The jockey says the horse was spent at the 500m mark !!!!
i made an observation that resulted 100% correct in my feelings behind how the horse would go.
Not only didnt it just try then perhaps fall away, it was spent 500m out! It won its first 2 starts so it has some ability. To then run like that and after someone went out of their way to let everybody they could on board ........ suggest there was something FIXED....who me??
They didnt even sit at the one price. They started below what they went on course @ $1.70 and chased everyone in sight to finish at $1.88 which was higher then you could get on course when they jumped. Should have posted it under the fisho thread i spose.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

Sorry King, but your post is just cementing the paranoia that opposers use to fight Betfair.
There are many ways to lay a horse without Betfair, in fact lots of ways just using the tote.
I see that you've seen a large amount get eaten up at what appears to be a high price and come to the conclusion it was a sting, only because the horse failed miserably.

Have you noticed the large amounts eaten up at well over the odds and the horse wins???

I have seen much larger than 50k.
Remember the Universal Queen plunge, well that horse was laid early for very large amounts until the jig was up.

So what did all these layers do before Betfair, how would they have laid the horse in question?
Would they just have let it go and thought, wish we could lay it?
No they would find another way, and they've been doing it for years.

I have owned horses and been around stables, although I don't care which friends have horses, because that's irrelevant to the argument.

I have yet to see a trainer anywhere, say this will run last.
If the horse is that bad they won't run it - and something really bad was wrong with the horse, which was only found out in running.

I am aware of such a similiar thing about to happen in the next week for a trainer to retreive lost EI revenue north of the border.

I really think you live in fantasy land.

If that were correct, that trainer could lose his licence, you think he'd risk it -I don't.

There is absolutely no substance to your claim other than the amount laid, and 50k is not a large amount.

A stewards report will probably verify that something like a nail in the hoof or similar happened.

You are forgettingthat all money on Betfair is identified, it is much easier to pull something sinister off in cash.

__________________
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yes Chrome your the ants pants around here we all know.

I am refering to 1 race....you still continue to refer to other races, that again i am not.

Fantasy Land reference

if you think stables dont bet for or against their horses in races then theres no point in continueing. You are 100% wrong. I know for a fact so whats the point. Everyone knows horses are set in racing fro plunges either way.

If you own a horse and your trainer thinks hes been lagging in work why wouldnt you lay it to retreive some payments for bills? DO you honestly think this doeasnt happen? you are kidding.
The owner doesnt do it >> they get outsiders and give a cut so records are not taken.

Well at the end of the day i hope the owners of this site are making a heap from your sales pal because its no wonder most have droppped off from those days of quality posts i find in the archive

Who can be bothered with boffins like you?

To think that stables arent using their horses for extra income in the betting arena.....as i said, theres no point in argueing with someone who is out of touch with something as simple as that.

Last post....... dont bother

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

King,


I wish you well in your future endeavours.

I only became a member on this site a few weeks ago & had been using as a tool for learning, it is amasing the things I have learnt.

I have not offered many opinions because any time anyone seems to offer an opinion which doesn't match that of a few certain folks they are shot down.

To all those sensible forum follower farewell. To any others obviously no point to make a comment which is rude.

This was posted on another forum before that race.
I think it just adds a bit more reality to kings theory.

A little bird told me that the wrong Bob thomsen horse won the other day and that Beau covet in the last tonite will run a big race