A bit of help rqd from the stats gurus if anyone could.
Was chasing the win% of horses based on their current win %.

Eg:
Current win % =50 % Win % = 18% (ie: wins 18% of races it contests)
=49% =17.8%


(I don't know if that example makes a great deal of sense)
Any help would be much appreciated.

Cheers.

I think you will find that ranking the horses win percentage to the others in the same race will give a clearer picture rather that a single percentage on its own.
e.g. 20% for a horse does not mean much on its own if its ranked 10th in the rankings for that race.

One has to try to compare apples with apples where possible.

For example the top ranked win percentage accross all races is approx 20% & it the SR drops slightly as one goes down the list.

If one chases the top ranked place percentage, that is around 22% & is considered to be more accurate that the win percentage.

Then there is the top ranked API (Avereage price) also accurate where majority of winners will come from the top 5 in the rankings.
This also has a 20% SR with low divs.

There is a commercially available system heavily promoted based on combining top win & API together who claim massive POT .
When I ran it through my program its SR was approx 20% for a LOT with consistant very low prices.

These top ranks are usally over bet as well, in other words , are usually shorter in price to what they should be, if betting with the TAB.

If one is going to chase top rank percentage horses , its a strong idea to bet with Betfair so as to attain a stronger price.

A rule I find that seems to inject more value to the final outcome, is to only target the selections that are shown to be $3.20+ in the pre-post newspaper market.
This rule reduced the LOT considerable when applied.

Cheers

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Cheers.

Ta for the reply B.
Not quite what I was after, but informative non the less.
I was actually looking for a quick way to weed out a few of the no hopers. At the moment it seems to be going OK but is a bit labour intensive.


Anybody got these stats????????

Hi JoeF are you after the % a horse wins its next race compard to its overall win %?
If not with your example a horse has 50% win strike rate then its statistical chance in the next race is 50% (all things being equal)

If it's running in the same class or all thing being equal [that's the problem with SR% stats].

20% strike rate in the provincials don't mean jack in city class.

adrianmassey.com/fav/fav0.php has a catagory for favourites called "Career Win Percentage (% of all races which the horse has won)"
Maybe along the lines you are looking for.

Generally speaking , win percentages dont mean much until they have 10+ career starts.
e.g.
Have a look at horses with 10+ starts with a 10% & less SR, they usually show very poor results.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Your right Bagman and another thing on the 10 race starts point, once a horse has had 10 starts, it's SR % is [mostly] set for life. It won't improve.

A handy thing to know about horses with 10 to 15% SR is, if they have been lucky enough to have had a win this prep, they won't get another one!

I look for horses with

• 15 or less career starts
• 5 career wins or less
• Mainly follow 4yo's.
• reasonable place strike rate

It works for me

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Yes crackone, the % a horse wins it's next start.
Ta for all that fellas.