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1st September 2008, 09:49 PM

Sprog

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Maximum Bet

Probably academic, I know, but what would be the maximum bet you would make. At some point, your bet would be large enough to effect the odds. Of course, this would all depend on the pool but, how would you calculate the bet so that it maximises your return considering that the odds would drop by the very act of placing that bet?

I'm interested in any response...

TIA

Steve

2nd September 2008, 12:35 AM

partypooper partypooper is offline

Member

Join Date: Nov 1999

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 2,420

Sprog, being a place bettor I've been particularly concerned about this, but I can say that bets of $500 don't appear to alter anything. In any case after this amount I spread it between several outlets, which although are independent of the Tote, I'm reliably informed some of the cash would end up in the pool, so maybe it does affect the divi. But there again if youre betting at BEST Tote, which Tote is it affecting? I don't belive at this level it would make much difference?

2nd September 2008, 10:45 PM

Sprog

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Posts: n/a

Ah, spreadsheets

Code:

OK, had a bit of time and a spreadsheet and came up with this...(apologies for the font but i need fixed-pitch for this)...
        
         Where:
        
         P = Win pool
         D = The current odds
         x = the proportion that you want to reduce the odds by. 0.1 = 10%. For example, if the odds are 5, 0.1 reduces this to 4.5 = 5 - (10% of 5)
         n = your bet
        
        
         n = Px
        	 ----------
        	 D - Dx - 1
        
         Using a Win Pool of $10,000 and x = 0.1, I got...
        
         P	   D    T	  n	     P+n   T+n	   Dn
         ----- -- ------- ------- -------- ------- -----
         10000 20  500.00   58.82 10058.82  558.82 18.00
         10000 19  526.32   62.11 10062.11  588.43 17.10
         10000 18  555.56   65.79 10065.79  621.35 16.20
         10000 17  588.24   69.93 10069.93  658.17 15.30
         10000 16  625.00   74.63 10074.63  699.63 14.40
         10000 15  666.67   80.00 10080.00  746.67 13.50
         10000 14  714.29   86.21 10086.21  800.49 12.60
         10000 13  769.23   93.46 10093.46  862.69 11.70
         10000 12  833.33  102.04 10102.04  935.37 10.80
         10000 11  909.09  112.36 10112.36 1021.45  9.90
         10000 10 1000.00  125.00 10125.00 1125.00  9.00
         10000  9 1111.11  140.85 10140.85 1251.96  8.10
         10000  8 1250.00  161.29 10161.29 1411.29  7.20
         10000  7 1428.57  188.68 10188.68 1617.25  6.30
         10000  6 1666.67  227.27 10227.27 1893.94  5.40
         10000  5 2000.00  285.71 10285.71 2285.71  4.50
         10000  4 2500.00  384.62 10384.62 2884.62  3.60
         10000  3 3333.33  588.24 10588.24 3921.57  2.70
         10000  2 5000.00 1250.00 11250.00 6250.00  1.80
        
         Where:
        
         D = initial odds
         n = bet
         Dn = new odds (all other things being equal, of course)
        
         also:
        
         P+n = win pool after placing your bet
         T+n = total amount bet on the runners after placing your bet
        
         Does this make any sense at all?
        
         Steve

3rd September 2008, 09:47 AM

Michal

Member

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 1,007

Hi Sprog,

This has been done before here is the link to a site which is free and provides a simple spread sheet to calculate change of odds for you in any pool size and bet size

geocities.com/punt2005/

Im not asociated with this at all. To my lknowlege there is nothing else being offered on the site other then a few free excel spreadsheets.

Michal

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 4th September 2008 at 08:30 AM.

3rd September 2008, 07:14 PM

Sprog

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Posts: n/a

Thanks

Thanks, Michal, that site confirmed it. My formula seems to work fine although it doesn't consider the tab's take. I think I can like with that, I don't think I need that accuracy.

Cheers

Steve

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