Hi all, once again.

Having decided to open a Betfair account and see what it is all about, and also just sitting here on saturday watching the first race at Newcastle. Noting Gai W's favourite Lyrical Prayer, solidly backed at around the even money mark and not running a place, the obvious question must be asked !

Has anyone done any stats on laying all of Gai W's favourites, or something similar to this..?

Regards, Paul

Shes had 413 runners this season 112 winners (60 different horses)

Thanks Crackone,

Upon reading your reply it made me look at the stats on R&S, its unreal just how many stats there are there. The stats I need are actually on that site. I've just been tossing some figures around here purely on the stats from R&S.

Her total number of favs over I think the last 7 seasons was 1892, of which 661 won which is 35%, not bad, but a loss of 13.6% for a flat $10 stake on them all, I would imagine this is based on the sp price.

I was then able to do a good analysis of her last 26 metrop favs. She had 9 winners. Had you backed them all at say $10 you would have got back $204 for your $260 outlay. But, had you layed them all at sp price with a $10 bet on each you would have made a profit of $56.

Then is her provincial last 26 favs. For 10 winners, but one was a 5/1 winner which put those ones in profit for backers. Outlay $260 for a return of $277 for $10 backers. Take out that 5/1 winner and then a profit of $23 for the $10 layers.

Still with me..?

So it does appear money can be made from laying Gai's favs.

About 6 months ago, I come up with another Gai system and wanted to trial it out. I used to read her site daily and pick up on any of her horses that were supposed to be fit and ready to win upon resuming from a spell, or hadnt won yet in the current prep. I would blackbook these and back them at the next 5 starts with a $2, $4, $6, $8, $10 bet, figuring I could lose 30 bucks on each horse. There was 2 horses that gave me a very nice profit, Royal Discretion when it won a big sprint race down at Caulfield and paid $31 with IAS top fluc, and also Theseo when it won the Epsom and another race paying around the $10 and $6 mark with IAS TF. Apart from these two horses, there were too many shortie favs that lost, so I took my nice little profit and ended that system.

Thats all for now,
Paul

And there lays the problem.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Check out Phil Pursers' site, justracing.com. He did an article on this exact topic about 2 wks ago, showing a big profit laying her odds on jobs. hang on, I'll find it! http://www.justracing.com.au/index....d=3170&catid=52

1/1/07
Starts 96
Wins 49
S/R 53.26%
Wret 81.8
LOT 11.85%
Av Div 1.66

Plc 74
S/R 80.43%
Pret 80.2
LOT 12.89%
Av Div 1.08

(Bigger fields = better results)

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

All odds on:

1/1/07
Starts 1,353
Wins 750
S/R 55.43%
Wret 1,260.9
LOT 6.81%
Av Div 1.68

Plc 1,145
S/R 84.63%
Pret 1,310.04
LOT 3.84%
Av Div 1.14

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

1. Fav - Evens or Odds On (<$2.1)
2. <57 kg
3. 3 or 4 yo Geldings
4. >50% place S/R

>1/1/06
Starts 260
Wins 164
S/R 63.08%
Wret 288.0
WPOT 10.77%
Av Div 1.76

Plc 223
S/R 85.77%
Pret 264.74
PPOT 1.82%
Av Div 1.19

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

1. Fav - Evens or Odds On (<$2.1)
2. <57 kg
3. 3 or 4 yo Geldings
4. >50% place S/R
5. <57kg
6. <2kg last start
7. <$28000 prize money variation last start
8. Not Resuming
9. At least 1 win


>1/1/06
Starts 169
Wins 116
S/R 68.64%
Wret 203.4
WPOT 20.36%
Av Div 1.75

Plc 152
S/R 89.94%
Pret 181.7
PPOT 7.51%
Av Div 1.20

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!