Hi all,

I have commenced developing a system that is consistently producing more than one selection in a race.

The system has a race s/r of 53% but the selection s/r is 22% (averaging nearly 2.5 selections per race).

At level stakes, win only, the POT is 40%.

I havent explored the results if I placed exotic bets.

Im after advice as to how I should interpret results. Should I be concerned that the selection strike rate is so low or does my race strike rate and reasonably high average div compensate for that?

Could I adopt a staking plan that changes when I have more than one selection per race?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.


Cheers,

Blocka

I would look at it as a race SR percentage as you have shown.

If it produces a profit , it has accomplished something positive were backing single horses has not.

I feel the race fav should maybe always included to cover the days where they decide to get up all day

This should minimise the damage if they decided to get up all day , which can & does happen.

I think you will find your best paying races will be Handicap race where many outsiders are know to get up.

Its the short paying races that will kill the idea long term , so try & only target the Handicap races where possible.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

One thing i have learned with multiple selections is to treat them as singles, say you have 10 races to bet on and you selected 27 bets for thos races then thats you bets for the day 27 work out your strike rate and average divi on this amount to see how well you are doing.

I would personally stick to level stakes [% of bank worked out at the beginning of each day] and forget about staking plans which will only alter your bet amounts, not your SR.

40% POT suggests a very good result but you haven't indicated how consistent that is [over what time period], as most punters would be happy with a consistent 10% POT.

I often bet 2 selections in a race [my wife picks a selection besides mine as a little personal comp. between us]. It works fine as our odds range is 4.50 to about 20.00.
I think odds are the key to betting more than 1 selection regardless of selection method. If I consider the favorite as the top selection, I ignore the race. Betting on shorties can sometimes pay but as 7 out of 10 favorites on average lose, having 2 bets that total very short odds [treated as 1 bet] often means regular odds-on betting or close to it. It might work for some but it's not my cup of tea for profit. If one of your bets is a shortie and gets up at $2.50, you have made 50 cents. Why bother?

Blocka

I wouldn't change anything (but I agree with Crash that more info is required for a more informed opinion), but if you wanted to get it down to one selection you'd probably stick to the one with the highest edge-to-profit ratio. You may lower your strike rate (not important) but your ROI will most likely increase.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

My filter selection method often picks 2 or even 3 horses. Most of the time I can get down to 2 if its three. If I can't and they are too short, I by pass the race.

Sometimes I get down to 2 and I can't split them. Say one is $4 and the other is $8. Who the aaaa wouldn't want an eachway bet on a horse at $8 dollars and the place bet is $4?

Thats how I look at it. Anyway, at a s/r of 53%, you will be able to afford your own mathematician within a few weeks and he can sort it out for you. :smile: