I'm okay with finding a selection.

But supposing I come up with 2 Races and in each race, the animal I wish to back, I have assessed as a $3 Chance.
I figure it as having a 33% Chance of winning.

In one of the Races all the Form is revealed and all the Factors used to compare horses are obvious and plain for eceryone to see.

In the other there is a doubt about the selection never ran over the Distance, and there is a First Starter from a leading stable
But the animal is VERY Good.

At First I figured that both selections are worth an equal amount, because of the Price I came up with, but somehow the Race with the less unknowns is worth more.

Anyone care to comment on how they go about how much to invest?

moeee,
if you are so confident about the chance of horse A, but less confident about horse B I can't see how you could have them priced equally. Clearly horse B should be at longer odds, if not maybe you need to review your pricing and/or rating methods...just my 2c

Hi Dennis.
Both horses came up at the same Odds because they did.
The Total for all runners in a Race must tally 100%, and if some of the animals are very poor conveyances, then they get rated very poorly.
So even in a Maiden Race, sometimes a poor Quality and inconsistent animal is SO Mush less poorer than the others, it is still coming up as a short Price.

If that don't help how about this.
One of the races is running at Flemington on a good Track.
The other race is at ROSEHILL, where the Track is wet and muddy.

Is a $3 Chance worth investing more, less or the same as a $3 shot on a GOOD Track?

If you're convinced that you have assessed the horses accurately but are having misgivings re: one of them, my suggestion would, at the very least, reduce your investment if not stay out completely. We all can be wise in retrospect. Not knowing your punting psyche, I can't give any more specific advice.

....or borrow Partypooper's ouija board.......

Just suppose you could have a P.O.T. of 15%
And you wanted to live on this Profit.
And suppose that amount was $250 a week.
That means the turnover will need to be $1667
And that would mean $238 investment per day
And supposing you had 3 selections per day.
That would mean $80 invested on each selection

$80?

NO WONDER I'm not getting anywhere!!!
I'm having trouble betting anywhere near that amount.
I'ld be lucky if I could comfortably bet $25 per selection.

So can anyone give me some advice as to how I can get the ability to Bet $80 per selection, when it is so far out of my Comfort Range.

Evening Moeee,

I've put this up before but nobody seemed to think it was worth a mention. However mate this is the function that transformed my life. Once you've got a little system happening the trick is how to make a living off it..no?

Well I struggled with this for ferkin years until my good wife set me straight. You see until you start earning good money from the game it is so easy to lower your standards and let discipline slip. You know the story. It's so close to a qualifying bet and after all you've only got fifty on it so let's risk it!!!

Or maybe your having a golden run and you decide to put a hundred on ......what a surprise when thats the very time that your system crashes....and so on.

The only way I know to get to the serious money (not the Betfair Rubbish) is this ..... Always bet to percentage of bank. The percentage chosen depends on your strike rate. Generally 1 or 2% is about right. If your system shows a profit for the week (any profit will do, even a buck!) put another set amount into your bank. This amount depends on your current income. I deposited $100 per week for a couple of years before the snowball took on a life of it's own.

If the system doesn't show a profit for a week then don't deposit the increment for that week. Stick to this and if your system is dodgy you won't blow your life's savings, but if it's a winner you'll soon be back at the TAB's putting on proper dough... Good luck .

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

moeee my friend, as the lady in Allo Allo said: "I shall say this only once"

If your selections work out Ok, you only need a couple of weeks to build up your bank, and as your bank is building so will your confidence.

After that it's plain sailing, sort of, given human nature being what it is.

You will doubt your judgment from time to time, ignore the doubts.

Good luck

Moeee,
you being an avid greyhound follower will understand, when betting with the TAB's, pool size counts for everything in greyhound racing.

Trifectas being a good example of how pool size effects dividends for greyhound racing.
take this example,
I divide my trifecta database into 3 equal sizes based on the size of the pools

The 3rd with the highest pool sizes the median dividend is 173.45
The middle 3rd the median dividend is 163.30
The remaining 3rd with the lowest pool sizes is 156.20

all that might not mean to much to most punters, but just knowing the pool sizes can change your profit from a slight loss to a nice return, just in the above example.

Now using your example of that even money maiden racing on a skinny pool day, as compared to an even money maiden dog running on an golden Easter egg holiday crowd bumper pool day, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand what is going on

Doesn't answer your question directly, but for wagering you need to know your pool sizes first an foremost. In fact that is a major requirement for any database

Try this .

Its called.
Betting to Price.

Divide bank by 20
e.g. 300.00 / 20 = 15 This is our Base Ret figure

Now divide the price of your selection into this figure.
15.00 / 3.00 = O/L5.00
15.00 / 5.00 = O/L3.00
15.00 / 10.00 = O/L 1.50
Total O/L 9.50
Bet to Ret 15.00

Profit if any one wins 5.50

All separate races or the same race.

If any get up , we are in profit, even if the 3.00 shot gets up, where at level stakes , one would have broke even.

What you will see is that we are placing more on the shorter priced horses & less on the longer priced horses.

It works the best on your own price ratings & if they are OK , one should do well.

This method usually shows better returns than just level stakes betting.

Another way of using this is in that example you gave us.
If the market says its 3.00 in a maiden race & has never run before & feel it should be priced at 4.00 then that's the price you divide into our 15.00 base ret figure.

That way , if it falls over , we didn't risk as much.

This approach keeps the Risk factor (Liability) totally under control.
Which is half of what the punt is about.

You can even do this with say 2-4 horses in the same race if prices permit.

This is the approach bookies use when they are betting with other bookies , say 3 horses in the same race.

The reason way it works is that the majority of a punters winners tend to be the shorter prices in the majority of times not the longer prices.

But if one feels they are the exception to the rule , put more on the long prices & less on the short prices .
I have a feeling you already know what will happen if one tries that long term..

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

I ended up dividing my Bank by 10 and than dividing the Rated Price into this Figure.

My Current Bank started off at $800 , so if the Rated Price for the animal was $4 , then I divided this into 80 , and therefore the Bet was $20.
Pretty much what you suggested Bhagwan.

It was fairly comfortable but I tended to bet a little less than what I shoulda by this system.
Maybe your divide by 20 is the go Bhagawan.

Anyway, the bottom line is I had about 6 bets without a collect
Plus dollars here and there on the Exotics.
And am now down to $700.

I'LL BE BACK!!!

And WOOFER - there ain't no danger of me and my $10 a win doing much damage to the pools, especially when I get better Odds at Betfair most times.