Here's a little Lay The Fave system I've checked over the past 7 days. I omitted Saturday because of the higher class races.

1) Minimum of 8 runners.
2) The pre-post fave (I use the Telegraph's market) to be under $3.00.

It would be expected that this might not be a good Laying system because the fave, being short in the market, would be expected to run well. However the results from Wed 17 Feb does not support this.

There were 51 races for 39 successes and 12 accidents. When adding 33% to the Unitab divvies for the accidents the total liability comes to $14.40. Obviously they were very short in the market. I calculated that if the winner paid $3.00 on Unitab then it would have been $4.00 on Betfair ($3.00 by 1.33). When deducting the stake of $1.00 it gives a loss of $3.00.

As there were 39 successes the profit was $37.05 after Betfair's commission. This results in a nett profit of $22.65 from 39 races.

Today's races are:

Gosford R6
Ballarat R3
Ballarat R7
Albany R2
Albany R4
Townsville R1
Townsville R2
Townsville R3

Let's see if it can beat the Forum Curse...

This lay the Fav plan has shown very good results so far.

RULES
.Target races where the whole field is 90+ pts as per UniTAB.

.Lay the Betfair fav if its 2.20+

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.

I used to look at those races with the hope of large divvies and a low strike rate with the fave. However, I could find no viable trend so I stopped. Some of the faves started surprisingly short and often won. I even looked at only those with 11-plus runners but again they seemed to prove nothing. Maybe the periods I looked at them were not indicative of the long-term results.

Yesterday the 8 races mentioned had an accident strike rate of 37.5% but in spite of that there was a very small profit of 0.34 units. I'll give it another go today:

Quirindi R4
Bendigo R1, 2, 6, & 7
Randwick R2
Moonee Valley R1
Ipswich R2, 5, & 7.

A slight loss today of 0.76.

However, if those races where the Tele fave has won its last start are eliminated then the results so far are quite good.

On Thursday eliminating the races as described above would have increased the profit from 0.34 to 3.39 units, and today from a loss of 0.76 to a profit of 1.85 units.

From the 13 races there would have been 10 successes. I'll look at this added rule and see how it goes.

Thanks for your findings Michael,
I notice you dont mention the horse number in the race selections.

Are we targeting the Betfair fav in those races, even though it may be different to the newspaper Fav?

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.

I'm laying whatever is the fave on Betfair. The chances are that if it is short in the Tele market then it should also be the fave with Betfair. I've only come across two instances where they are different. I've also deleted races where the fave ran second at last start, I don't know if this is a wise move or not but it makes me feel uncomfortable.

Yesterday was another winning day.

Only two races today:
Taree R5
Pakenham R3.