I have been having success with laying the inside barrier in races of 1,250 and less in fields of 10 and more. There were no accidents yesterday.

I've now looked at a free site that tests systems - Thorns and Bhagwan are aware of it.

Testing the above system for only Saturdays shows an overall loss of 34% on Win betting from 890 races.

I do not feel too comfortable laying this system on tracks that have a short stright or at Flemington where there is the "six straight" as inside barriers may not be a disadvantage.

There are only two Saturday tracks that are under 300 metres, and the results for the system on each are:

Ascot - 100 races for a 7.30 LOT.
Moonee Valley - 41 races for a 2.68 POT.
Flemington 43 races for a 19% POT - not a bad result for Win betting.

Omitting these three tracks would increase the Lay profit. I have also been using the system on mid-week racing with good results.

Cheers for that Michael.
Dunno what is it is, but Moonee Valley and my lay methods do not work at all, good to see I'm not the only one!
From my few years of data, I have found that if I actually backed all my lay selections to win, I would actually be sitting on a nice profit!

Idea looks nice and simple as well, which is what I like!

Have you played with a price filter at all Michael?
That could change it a bit.

Thorns, maybe its got something to do with the length of the straight and/or the shape of the track? Have you any results for Ascot?

Yesterday I omitted Pinjarra because of the "straight five", which was a good move because there was a winner and a second from the two qualifying races.

Thorns, there were 11 races where I layed the No.1 barrier, I used a cut-off price of $15. I don't know if there is a price filter on the testing website - I couldn't find one. Yesterday there were several more races but their Lay prices were over $15 - none won. Of the 11 races there was one accident of $7.00 giving me a profit of 3.50 units.

michaelg, for Ascot and Belmont <= 1200m (and since they laid new tracks a few years ago).

Ascot.... All odds 19.6% LOT
Ascot.... <$16 14.3% LOT

Belmont.. <$16 16% LOT

I'll look at this further, well done.

Thanks, Schonegg.

I've been testing a max distance of 1,250, not 1,200 metres. Is it possible to obtain this information?

If the new tracks at Ascot and Belmont still have a home straight of under 300 metres I suspect the LOT results will not be too favourable.

Have you got the pots/lots for Moonee Valley? It'd be interesting as it'd be the shortest straight for a Metropolitan track in Australia. The 1000m has a 13.8 win % but I can't find the pots/lots. (10.5% for 1200m).
For WA the provincial tracks have good long straights so wouldn't pass your test. There are a couple of country tracks with shorts straights e.g Toodyay, but don't race often enough.

Just seen you posted the MV results in your original post

Not a bad day today. I omitted Geraldton because I do not know the length of the straight.

8 selections for no accidents, but only 4 that were $15 or less for a profit of 3.80 units..

Hey Michael,

ran this through my database and the long term results weren't to good for laying. Over about 2 and half years data the LOT was around 2% for metro, and 5% for all venues. I did not however have those tracks mentioned above excluded from the results. As you showed i your first post, the last year has been pretty solid showing around the 30% LOT mark, but the period before that would have been an absolute disater if you layed them. Will do a test with those tracks left out when I get a chance as well.

edit: that was with a $12 and under TAB price (roughy equivalent to $15 BF)