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Old 11th November 2010, 08:26 AM
bryz55 bryz55 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 58
Default If this was the case

Ok here's something I have been thinking about...

Scenario is the horses are all the same variables are field sizes and prices of animal but basically the chance of each is the same.

So the chance of a place is as follows

Fld size.
8 =3/8 = 37.5% place chance
9 =3/9 = 33.33%
10=3/10=30%
11=3/11=27.27%

Say your full stake is $100 the place, and in an 8 horse field ur required price is $1.50.

The question is would you reduce your stake in relationship to the % chance of place as the field size increases? And would you required a larger dividend to compensate for this?

Eg. 8 horse field =100@$1.5= $150 (s/r37.5%) so100/37.5x33.3=88.8
9. =88.8@$1.68=$150(s/r33.3%)so 100/37.5x30=80
10. =80@$1.9. =$150(s/r30%)
11. =72.72@$2.06=$150(s/r27.72%)

So to have a smaller risk when the chance of placing is less?

Anyone thought about this and would it be a way to make sure you got the value required? Obviously you need to have a sound seln method but if it were a game of chance would this improved anything or reduce your losses??

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