Hi Lomaca,

Didnt want to take over the other thread so started a new one,i hope others will post their opinions aswell but this is mine.


Its all about the profit on turnover.

Im trying to target races that have a greater chance of producing a result where the available dividends are much larger than the true odds of my selections.

Its my expeirence that this happens far more in larger fields,its all about the cut off point,it can change depending on the type of bet.

The situation i listed with my top 2 providing the quinella at $195 for a $1 outlay and the top 3 filling the trifecta at $3009 for a $6 outlay might
not happen very often but at 195 to 1 and 501 to 1 they were both massive overlays compared to the true chance of them finishing in that order,in a smaller
field the chances of this kind of massive overlay just doesnt exsist.


Here's an example of the benefits of filtering to field size from a system im currently testing-

All races =
714 bets-201 wins -$700.40 return - 0.019% loss on turnover

Races with 7 starters or less =
104 bets - 33 wins -$72.40 return - 0.303% loss on turnover

Races with 8 starters or more =
610 bets - 168 wins - $628 return -0.029% profit on turnover


* so weve taken a losing system and turned it into a profitable one by simply ignoring races with less than 8 starters.

This is from well fancied horses,the situation is exagerated even more with longer priced horses.

Cheers