There are "x" amount of systems that win at some stage then go for a burton !

Fibonacci is a long established system that could be utilised to interpret when a system is "overdue" for a run of success in order to bring it back to the "mean".

This may help stop the run of outs that kills a lot of system followers. When Fibonacci indicates it's time to re-enter, a progressive staking plan can be used to maximise profits.

So we've reduced the impact of the run of outs, and given ourselves a chance of maximising our profits.

You're welcome ! lol

yes, Yes, YES, YES!!! I'll have what he's having...lol

I never agree you can tell when a system is going to start winning, maybe statistics can tell you the best time to start betting and stop betting but this is not the same thing.

The staking plan "bet Smarter And Win" I used for 12 months with one of the "Optimists" systems . .Profit as I recall over 12 months was $1600 with a target of $100.

Target over 10 bets
If the target was reached at any stage of the 10 bet cycle then no further bets were made in that 10 bet cycle.ONLY recorded

If the target was NOT reached then you set a NEW target/NEW divisor PLUS what was left of the the old target /old divisor for the next 10 bets.

The MAIN thing was NO further bets in the 10 bet cycle if the target was reached.i.e Target reached at bet 5 then next 5 bets were only recorded.

Cheers
darky

The Premise it was based on was that Winning runs are ALWAYS followed by Losing runs and vice versa.

Cheers
darky

See that would only make sense depending how the bets were selected, such as they were starting in race 1 and working race to race looking at the option that in earlier races more of there selections won than in later races.

It would depend on why they selected those runners to determine if stopping in the middle of a cycle and waiting until the end of the cycle made sense, rather than just starting a new cycle if the basis was mathematical.

I,ve used the "other" Rythym method too but ended up with 10 kids.

Sorry .Couldnt resist

I think the reasons most systems go down the gurgler is that the parameters in racing are not consistent but continually change except for the following two.

Firstly, over the years horses have been found to win in direct proportion to their starting price and if adjusted for the TAB/bookmakers take, horses win rate is almost equal to their starting price. DS found this years ago and others on this forum have shown it still to be true. Hence, punters generally get a horse's chance of winning right. Its the take you have to beat.

Secondly, the strike rate for the top three ranked place percent horses is consistently just under 50% but again the take is just to much.

There may be other unchangeable truisms in but very few have discovered any that help a system.

Chaos theory shows how a small change in a single factor when repeated over and over can result in an entirely different outcome in a system from that expected historically.

I don't know how to apply chaos theory to horse racing but it does suggest why systems go wrong.

Hi darkydog2002, I didn't think it would be you to lower the tone of this forum, but there you go. Others here would like to know what your SR was ? ie: How many "bets" for each "winner". I'm guessing your SR would have been very, very low early in the piece ..... lol

More importantly, were you at all interested in trying to improve your SR, or were you happy with having many "bets" and enjoying the ride (so to speak).

I shan't even broach the "lay" betting !

Nice one Barny.