Hello All!

Could anyone share a good, practical stop-loss strategy? Do you feel that it is best to stick with betting a % of your bank? If you use a progression-type betting plan, when do you call it quits when suffering a losing streak?

What are your thoughts?

Thanks,
bullet

bullet32

Yes when to stop. I've wondered about the management of streaks for some time. I think streaks make and break punters. It's sort of like the wave you surf on any race day.

What I found helped me was to find my strike rate over a long series of bets. When I found that out (based on a history of bets and results from a method or approach I use) then I used the site below.

http://mailer.today.com.au/fairfax/users/sidsid

This site was offered before by someone else on this post. It's very useful once you know your strike rate. Put the percentage strike rate in and click to see what to expect. Then it's easy to have an idea when the red line has come.

Say for a 30% strike rate method or approach, it's going to be rare to go beyond 6 or 7 losses in a row. It does happen as the simulator shows, but it's a freak streak. Reaching that sequence of losses would tell me it's time to stop.

Some others on this post say it's not worth stopping as the streak will restart again when you start betting the next day. All you are doing is delaying the eventual outcome.

I think not. And that's because I account for the bets I don't bet on as part of my betting sequence. Say you did reach 6 bets and didn't find a winner. Then you have a choice to bet on the 7th or stop there and watch what happens. Ok sometimes you let the cat out of the bag and it wins. And sometimes laying that bet meant saving money and that means you are going the right direction.

I have a saying, "We know that passing up races requires some discipline and "inner strength" but a race passed can be equivalent to a winning bet."

Say I hit a 7 bet streak. Would I bet on the next one? Would I sit it out?

There's another element to this situation. ME. I find if I am busting for a result I'll go ahead and blunder. If I focus on a longer term view and think, ok it's not happening right now, or maybe in the next hour, but that doesn't mean I have to get a result in the next hour.

Delaying my gratification for a result has often helped me get on top of the situation than heading down that chasing the loss feeling. Just by getting my cool back. I think it's part of the whole game of punting.

Of course as wool43 has said quite clearly if you change your methods half way through the sequence, well you've added to your woes.

Anyone else care to make a comment?

Refer to below for the longest expected run of outs chart.

If you want to figure out the average run of outs or medium, multiply the the charts longest run by 40%.
e.g. If the longest expected run of outs on horses with a 30% SR is 20.
Multiply by 40% =8 this will be the average run of outs before striking a winner .

You could create a staking plan around this figure.
1) Increase your bets by 50% for the next 8 bets, if still hehind after 8 bets , increase by another 50% , until in profit or
2) Stop betting until a winner ,then start again or
3) Halve your bets until a winner gets up ,then go to your full bet until another run of 8 outs comes along. That way you are halving your losses without the feeling you are missing out on something.

I prefer to stop betting , then start again once a winner gets up .
I have saved a fortune doing this, but it does take dicipline.


STATS on longest expected run of outs.
Click onto below.
http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=2410&forum=7

__________________
Cheers.

You might like to try this staking

plan.http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=2558&forum=7

__________________
Cheers.

Staking plan

http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=2558&forum=7

__________________
Cheers.

Thank you Fryingpan and Bhagwan for the sites and stats.

One more question, if I may: With the discussion of expected losing streaks and the many tracks now available for play (via the internet), could a bettor capitalize on losing streaks by WAITING for a given number of losses AND THEN begin betting?

For instance, here in the U.S., I can play 15 or more tracks every weekend day. If my method were showing a given strike rate, could I reasonably WAIT for several losses in a row (regardless of which track they occured at) AND THEN begin my betting?

Have you tried this? If so, what were your results?

Thanks!
bullet32

Hi Bullet32,

My advice is to keep detailed records or past bets including your strike rate and average dividend.

If your strike rate drops below the average at any stage of betting then this is the red flag that you should stop immediately.

Do not bet until the strike rate returns to the average level - in other words paper trade your selections without actually betting.

When your strike rate returns to the average then begin betting again.

Coming in after a sequence of losses in order to catch one winner is dangerous, it could well be that there is some factor which you may not have recognised causing your strike rate to lower and you may end up in a long losing run.

Waiting til your strike rate returns before betting means that you may miss a few winners, but the risk of a longer than expected run of outs wiping you out is avoided.

It's all about risk versus reward.

Hope this helps.

The normal method in calculating Anticipated Losing Sequence remembering your calculating the confidence level not the actual amount of Losing turns, so to calculate to a 99% confidence level you use the following formula, 1 minus( Losing Strike Rate % (to the power of) ^ Losing turns )
eg if my win strike rate was 25% my losing S/r is .75
1-(.75^ 5)=76.3%
that is after 5 losing runs the confidence level is 76.3%, when you reach the first 99% that is your anticipated longest losing sequence.

Try betting in bursts of 5 outs in a row then stop until one of your selections gets up then start again until you have another run of 5 outs in a row .

It could help save many long runs of outs.

__________________
Cheers.

If your using the Kelly optimum as your method of bankroll growth, what you do is not stop betting but change your Kelly opt.%
In my experience i know that i will run into my minimum Bankroll somewhere around the 40th bet in a betting series of 100. So I adjust kelly Opt% accordingly (less than 50%)until the minimum bankroll window has passed,I then adjust the Kelly Opt% to over 50% for the remaining betting series.
My own oddsline is also incorporated into the above...but that another story..