I tested a couple ratings out that I made on 10 races and there was 20 lay selections for 1 place in the first 4 of the market that were not in the top 50% of my ratings and the average price was $6.50.

I know the chance of getting that sorta s/r every 20 bets wouldn't happen but if it was anywhere near that with that average price, what would be the best way to bet them?

How many accidents would it take to finish in the red at an average price of $6.50 over 20 lay bets for the win or for the place if that was your bet choice?

What sorta profit would you be looking at if you was lucky enough to only have 1 accident over 20 lay bets at an average price of $6.50 for not winning or not placing if that was your bet type?

Does it all come down to your bet being matched and what does that mean exactly? does that mean I may possibly only end up having like 15 actual bets out of the 20?

Would you be better off lay betting to not place at all or just to not win if s/r remained anywhere near that at those prices?

The lay place markets have very low liquidity. Also the place prices that go on betfair can be much much higher. I have seen prices of $5 on the totes and up to $50+ on betfair.

If your serious about laying then check the betfair prices first to see what that $6.50 winner really went for.

Personally I think your better off sticking to the win market as the place market can be very frustrating with the low / no liquidity.

As far as what strike rate you would need. You would need to hit at least 17 out of the 20 to not place in order to show a possible profit. That is based on your $6.50 amount. ie. $5.50 lost on each placing so you would lose $16.50 is 3 selections ran a place. Even then after commission on the winning bets you are probably showing a loss. So you really need 18 out of 20 to make a profit.

Wow 18 out of 20 to make a profit at $6.50, that is pretty sad

Why is lay betting so popular then?

Would I had been better off just laying the favourites at an average price of say $4.00 and how many accidents could I have out of say 20 bets to still make say a 20% pot?

Out of 20 selections at $4.00 you would need to hit 4 winners or less. 5 winners would be showing a loss. ie you would need 16 ot of 20 selections to lose at avg odds of $4.00 winners.

Lay betting is not as easy as it looks.

Thanx for that UB

And how much would that be worth if only 2 runners won out of the 20 at an ave price of $4.00 and what would be the difference in worth if you choose the bet type for the runner not to finish in the top 3?

How much more is the return if you choose the bet type for the runner not to place?

Michael obviously enjoys laying so must be something in it.

Lay betting is basically the reverse of back betting.

On Betfair:
Backing $1 on a horse paying $4 will win you $3 if the horse wins the race or you lose $1 if the horse loses the race.
Laying $1 on a horse paying $4 will lose you $3 if the horse wins the race or give you $1 if the horse loses the race.

The same thing for place bets except the horse can come in any of the 3 placings and you win/lose the same as above.

Toil, Sorry to be brutal but it might be best for you to have a look at the Betfair site and see how to lay bet as you don't want to lose everything by not knowing what you are doing.

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Thanx Ocho, I've had a couple brief looks at the Betfair site.

Surely its harder to select a runner not to place as apposed to not to win?

Is the return higher for your dollar for selecting like a favorite not to place at all?

Cheers.

The return will be the same whatever you pick however you will lose less for the place for each bet for the same horse if it runs a place.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I believe Laying to 5% Liability is the strongest approach to adopt if laying them not to win.

Target profit 4%
Important, because if one keeps going then one will eventually give a lot of it back.

Max Stop/Loss 4 x 5% Liability
e.g. 20.00 x 4 = 80.00 stop/loss

Example.
5/1 (6.00) into say 20.00 (5% of 400.00 bank) = O/L 4.00

Target profit 16.00 (4% of 400.00 bank)
STOP for the day (Thats the hard bit)

I feel you will have more control on the outcome with this approach


Laying them not to place is great if they dont run a place , but you will find days where they will get up all day - Frustrating.
I would bet these at Flat stakes
Max price 4.00

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Cheers.

Thanks for that Bhagwan.