Hi all,

Just got a hypothetical question for you guys.

I'm just looking at something which involves laying certain horses in the price bracket of $2 to $3 on Betfair.

What would be the best way to do this - laying at level stakes or laying to liability?

I cannot give you the stats or percentage of winners/losers involved because I don't know myself (maybe someone could help with this). I'm just wanting to know what may be the best way to go.

Taking commission out of the equation for now and just using simple numbers we get the following:

Laying minimum $5 level stakes
Price $2.00 - Lay win $5 - Lay loss $5
Price $2.50 - Lay win $5 - Lay loss $7.50
Price $3.00 - Lay win $5 - Lay loss $10

Laying say to $10 Liability (so minimum $5 lay bet requirement is met)
Price $2.00 - Lay win $10 - Lay loss $10
Price $2.50 - Lay win $7.50 - Lay loss $10
Price $3.00 - Lay win $5 - Lay loss $10

Is there really a difference? Level stakes means you lose less on the lower priced horses which are expected to win more often HOWEVER liability means you win more when a lower priced horse wins.

Is one better than the other?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Ocho
Ideally with laying you want to win the same on your longer priced selns as you do on the shorter ones because they are going to lose ( win for you ) more often, statistically speaking. So, in my actual experience, I would always have won more laying a stake not to a liability ( I have done lots of xls studies to prove this ). However, since I like laying longshots I use the liability method because I don't want to wake up in the morning having laid a 330/1 winner. In practical terms the worst loser I have laid in the UK in the last 6 months was about 33/1 so I wouldn't have woken to a nightmare.
With the low price range you mention I reckon you will be slightly better off laying a stake but in that narrow range there should not be much of a difference.

It depends on the edge.
Is your edge fluent across all odds ranges or is the edge towards the shorter or longer end?
Laying to fixed stake can be better, but laying to liability can also be better as it magnifies your edge if it's towards the shorter end.
The simple answer is, it is not the same.
It will be different one way or another.

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Thanks guys. I've just broken the odds range down to 10c increments with the following results but I had been using a $30 liability for testing.

2.00-2.10.....-13.78
2.12-2.20.....193.26
2.22-2.30.....163.16
2.32-2.40.....-3.72
2.42-2.50.....144.48
2.52-2.60.....204.56
2.62-2.70.....120.96
2.72-2.80.....56.34
2.82-2.90.....76.75
2.92-3.00.....-56.59

I've now changed the last increment up to just 2.92 (back fitting or what) giving me.....46.86 (instead of -56.59).

That's +988 for laying with $30 liability (no commission deducted though).

It is only 134 bets though however so it's probably running really hot (or cold as it's laying) right now.

There have been 34 losing lay bets out of those 134 races to date (75% SR).

Do the above figures give anyone any idea if level stakes or liability would be better?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Yes 134 bets isn't enough, but at this stage you're better off laying to a fixed stake.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thanks very much Chrome Prince.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I just checked my figures (pre-commission let me stress) for those 134 bets

If laying to $5 level stakes +247
If laying to $10 liability +329

Today there were 11 races with 7 winning lays
$5 level +2.51 (only +$0.23 after commission)
$10 liability +9.76 (+$6.52 after commission)

I still don't believe I am comparing apples with apples so I suppose it's just a matter of which side of $2.50 the winners/losers fall for which way would be best.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Ocho,
I must say I'm very surprised by those results given the previous figures you posted. Perhaps what has a further bearing is the number of bets less than $2.50 and greater than $2.50.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 413,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I was a bit surprised too with those figures for yesterday. Obviously the number of losing bets matters a lot. For instance with the $5 level stakes if all 11 races won you would have +$55 (less commission). Lose a race and you lose the $5 while also paying out between $5 and $10 (depending on odds). So probably not too surprised actually.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Yesterdays results were a bit better with the system picking 13 races with 10 winning races and 3 losing races (77% SR - all picks between $2 & $2.92). The losses were at odds of 2.88, 2.66 & 2.56. The winning lays ranged from odds of 2.02 to 2.86.

Saturday 09/02/2013
$5 level +21.26 (after commission)
$10 liability +36.72 (after commission)

As mentioned in my trading thread, I may put $300 aside to give this one a go. If I do I think I will use the liability betting.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale