I note that we are keeping records of small fields and the performance of favourites. It is my view that the biggest impact of a small field is on the pace of the race. This however is more pronounced as distances get further. It may hardly be relevant over 1000 metres, as thes events are pure speed. 1200 metres could possibly be the same. I believe the distance of each race should be captured for meaningful analysis.

I thought I would take a quick look at favourites in small fields for myself.

Following are stats from the last 4 years for favourites in Sat Metro flat races where the field size was 7 or smaller. I have only included distances ranges where there have been at least 50 races.

Sat Metro - VIC, NSW, QLD, SA

Distance Win % POT %
1000 to 1199 - 42% -6%
1200 to 1399 - 42% -6%
1400 to 1599 - 36% -17%
1600 to 1799 - 25% -44%
1800 to 1999 - 35% -19%
2000 to 2199 - 38% -11%

Take 2YO's within this sample out and races up to 1399m produce a small 1.6% profit at NSW TAB dividends...that could equate to 15-20% profit using Betfair.

Of course these are just stats and its no guarantee such results will ever continue. In any case there has only been 300 instances in the past 4 years, hardly enough to get excited about.

Good work,

If you have time, could you run stats over mid-week and public holiday meetings, as well as Saturdays.

Thanks,
Cheers.

theyre interesting stats good on ya ........i know that you arent the only one that goes to the data base and throws up stats for us but thanks just the same ...........ive spent my life (or a greater part of it ) playing with little sysytems never losing too much along the way paying for my entertainment and this forum is one site i go to everyday .........and what about betfair ...magic absolutely magic ,ive already layed sound action at1.80 im waiting to see what i can get tomorroww for my other hundred but if she gets to the turn and kicks ill be cheerin her on yeeeeehaaaaaa