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Metadata meltdown?
Are we all being deceived by hype without realising it?
As the sun rises on another day, a few sneak out early and pick up a paper. They sit back over a cuppa and look for a value favourite in the weekday races. AAP have crunched a few numbers the day before and have come up with some prepost prices. There's only two brands of paper ownership of any consequence and both mastheads have sourced the same data to print, save a few editorial tweaks by the Racing Editor to make it look like a custom assessment. So 'old mate' and a million others have seen a fave called 'Besthope' going round at a provincial track at 4:15 with a pre post of $3.30. "Looks like value to me", says old mate, "...gotta a couple of placings in last 3 starts". By the time it's lunchtime the TV and radio boys have jumped on board and they don't want to be too contrarian, no good rocking the boat, so they've picked 'Besthope' too in the top 3. (Has anyone actually done an assessment on their own yet?) In the meantime, a few smarties have done their own assessments and reckon 'Besthope' is rated at $8, but they're in the minority. 10 mins to start time and 'Besthope' has opened at around the $3.30 - $3.70 mark on the totes, bookmakers and exchange and still ranked the first favourite. Another group of 'followers' see that and think 'value' again (without really knowing) and pile some money on. The price starts to firm, more 'followers' cotton on and pile more money on 'Besthope'. It starts at $2.90 and comes 4th! Is this what really happens on a day to day basis? |
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