OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Race Classes (Thoroughbreds)

18th November 2016, 06:44 PM

Playlife

Member

Join Date: Nov 2014

Posts: 33

Race Classes (Thoroughbreds)

Hi guys.

I'm working on a new ratings system where I've tried to minimise the number of subjective (human) inputs. The last piece of the jigsaw puzzle is the requirement to rank the classes of various races throughout Australia from strongest to weakest but I'm having a tough time doing it.

I started off with the list from here:
https://www.racerate.com/race_classes.htm

But upon finding more info on handicapping from the official State racing authorities, it has muddied the waters somewhat.

Some of the info I found is below:

Vic
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Listed Race
Open
Mares Open
BM / 0-96
BM / 0-90
BM / 0-84
BM / 0-78
Open 2YO
2YO
2YO
Open 3YO
3YO 0-78
3YO 0-70
BM 90
BM 84
BM 78
BM 70
BM / 0-64
0-58

NSW
Metro
Open
BM 95
BM 90
BM 85
BM 80
BM 75
BM 70
1MW
0MW
Maiden

Provincial
Open
BM 80
BM 75
BM 70
BM 65
BM 60
Class 2
Class 1
Maiden

Country
Open
BM 75
BM 70
BM 65
BM 60
BM 55
BM 50
BM 45
BM 40
Class 3
Class 2
Class 1
Maiden Plates
Maiden

SA
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Listed Race
Handicap
BM 90
BM 82
BM 75
BM 70
0-68
3YO Handicap
3YO BM 70
3YO BM 64
BM 80
BM 72
BM 64
BM 60
0-58
BM 54

QLD
Metro Handicap
BM 95
Metro 2MW
Metro Class 6
Metro 1MW
Metro 0MW
Metro 3YO Handicap
Metro Class 6
Metro Class 5
Metro Class 4
Metro Class 3
Metro Class 2
Metro Class 1
Provincial1 BM 85
Provincial1 Class 6
Provincial1 Class 5
Provincial1 Class 4
Provincial1 Class 3
Provincial1 Class 2
Provincial1 Class 1
Provincial2 Open Handicap
Provincial2 BM 79
Provincial2 Class 6
Provincial2 Class 5
Provincial2 Class 4
Provincial2 Class 3
Provincial2 Class 2
Provincial2 Class 1
Country1 Open Handicap
Country1 BM 75
Country1 Class 6
Country1 Class 5
Country1 Class 4
Country1 Class 3
Country1 Class 2
Country1 Class 1 B
Country1 Class 1 A
Country2 BM 74
Country2 Class 6
Country2 Class 5
Country2 Class 4
Country2 Class 3
Country2 Class 2
Country2 Class 1 B
Country2 Class 1 A

I'm by no means a horse racing expert so it's very much

I have been told Group 1 in NSW does not necessarily equate to Group 1 in VIC. If this is true, could someone explain that?

I recognise there are a lot of categories above, however, my list does not have to be quite so elaborate. Ultimately once the list is collated, I'd like to be able to rank each class relative to the other and normalise the data for use in my algorithm.

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1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

18th November 2016, 07:43 PM

Playlife

Member

Join Date: Nov 2014

Posts: 33

Update, just realised the QLD template was updated, please ignore QLD in the top post.

QLD
Metro Open Handicap
Metro 2MW
Metro Class 6
Metro 1MW
Metro 0MW
Metro Class 6
Metro Class 5
Metro BM 75
Metro Class 4
Metro Class 3
Metro Class 2
Metro Class 1
Provincial1 Class 6
Provincial1 Class 5
Provincial1 Class 4
Provincial1 BM 70
Provincial1 Class 3
Provincial1 Class 2
Provincial1 Class 1
Provincial2 Open Handicap
Provincial2 Class 6
Provincial2 Class 5
Provincial2 BM 70
Provincial2 Class 4
Provincial2 Class 3
Provincial2 Class 2
Provincial2 Class 1
Country1 Open Handicap
Country1 Class 6
Country1 Class 5
Country1 BM 65
Country1 Class 4
Country1 Class 3
Country1 Class 2
Country1 BM 55
Country1 Class 1
Country1 Class A

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

18th November 2016, 10:16 PM

TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline

Member

Join Date: Sep 2009

Posts: 1,051

Hi Playlife,

The race rating order you have is pretty spot on. The hard part I have discovered is properly analysing how the 2yo & 3yo restricted form will equate when the 3yo's have their first starts in Open grade.

Often this restricted form is rated too highly and so I avoid races where it is too hard to gage the correct rating.

Maybe compare a few free and paid ratings to figure out where each race stands. You've probably seen the racing Australia website but just in case, look at the nominations and see the base rating each horse has. Here's a link to Ballarat tomorrow:

Racing Australia Ballarat fields

Racing and Sports have ratings that work well on the better class races and are free:

Racingandsports Ballarat form

Best of luck Playlife!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

19th November 2016, 07:44 AM

blackdog1

Member

Join Date: Aug 2013

Posts: 177

Any idea how accurate those "Hcp Ratings" are?
I mean as in S/R and ROI?
thanks

19th November 2016, 09:46 AM

Playlife

Member

Join Date: Nov 2014

Posts: 33

Howdy TheSchmile,

Thanks for your detailed and well explained response, much appreciated.

I must admit the 2YO and 3YO ratings had me well confused with the allowances, time of year, and various other factors needed to be taken into account.

I've poked around those sites before but had not really looked deeply into them due to the amount of data being presented. After your suggestion, I've spent the last hour having a closer look and have seen quite a few pieces of potentially helpfully information. I'm in the process of collating it and see if I can make some sense of it once I have enough data to fill out the classes and ratings.

Thanks for your assistance!

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

19th November 2016, 09:24 PM

TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline

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Join Date: Sep 2009

Posts: 1,051

A pleasure Playlife!

Hope your quest is a fruitful one!!

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The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

9th December 2016, 07:23 PM

Playlife

Member

Join Date: Nov 2014

Posts: 33

So after much investigation and deliberation, I've put together a list of Class ratings based on definitions from the respective state websites.

I'm not sure one could ever be certain about the relative ranking since it requires lots of interpretation, but it's a listing I am running with to develop my rating algorithm.

Unfortunately my algorithm takes 20 hours per 12 months of race data. I am using data from 2011 onwards and so far have only managed to run it once through - then realised that I had made a little error in outputting results which render the entire rating of every horse slightly incorrect. However the effect multiplies as it is a zero-sum algorithm and since I'm a perfectionist, cannot handle this!

Please feel free to comment and modify as you see fit. This is the first cut of many:

Code:

1.00	COX PLATE
0.99	CAULFIELD CUP
0.98	MELBOURNE CUP
0.98	Metro Group 1 WFA
0.95	Metro Group 1
0.93	Metro Group 2 WFA
0.93	Metro Group 1 Handicap
0.90	Metro Group 2 Handicap
0.90	Metro Group 3 WFA
0.88	Metro Group 3 Handicap
0.85	Metro Listed
0.85	Metro Listed Handicap
0.85	Metro Group 1 3YO
0.85	Metro Group 1 Mares WFA
0.83	Metro Group 2 3YO
0.83	Metro Group 3 3YO
0.83	Metro Group 1 Mares
0.80	Metro Open Handicap Sat
0.80	Metro Listed 3YO
0.80	Metro Group 2 F&M
0.80	Metro Group 2 Mares
0.79	Metro Group 3 Qlty
0.79	Metro Feature Handicap
0.78	Metro Group 1 F&M
0.78	Metro Group 3 F&M
0.78	Metro Group 3 Mares
0.77	Metro Group 1 2YO
0.77	Metro Group 3 2YO
0.77	Metro Group 3 2YO
0.77	Metro Open Handicap
0.76	Metro BM 96 Sat
0.76	Metro BM 95
0.76	Metro BM 94
0.76	Metro BM 93
0.76	Metro BM 92
0.76	Metro BM 91
0.76	Metro Class 6 Sat
0.76	Metro Open Mid
0.76	Metro Open 3YO Sat
0.76	Metro Listed F&M
0.76	Metro Listed Mares
0.74	Metro Open Handicap
0.73	Metro 2MW
0.72	Metro Welter
0.71	Country Open Handicap
0.71	Metro Open 3YO Mid
0.71	Metro Open F&M Sat
0.71	Metro Open Mares Sat
0.70	Metro Welter
0.68	Metro BM 90 Sat
0.68	Metro BM 89 Sat
0.68	Metro BM 88 Sat
0.68	Metro BM 87 Sat
0.68	Metro BM 86 Sat
0.68	Metro BM 85 Sat
0.68	Metro 1MW
0.68	Metro 0MW
0.68	Metro Fillies F&M Handicap
0.67	Metro 3YO Qlty
0.66	Country Open Handicap
0.66	Provincial Open 3YO
0.66	Metro Open 3YO F&M Mid
0.66	Metro Open Mares Mid
0.66	Metro Restricted Handicap
0.66	Metro Handicap
0.66	Metro 3YO Fillies Qlty
0.65	Metro Restricted F&M Handicap
0.65	Provincial Open Handicap
0.65	Metro Open 3YO
0.65	Metro 3YO C&G
0.63	Metro BM 90 Mid
0.63	Metro BM 89 Mid
0.63	Metro BM 88 Mid
0.63	Metro BM 87 Mid
0.63	Metro BM 86 Mid
0.63	Metro BM 85 Mid
0.63	Metro Restricted Handicap
0.63	Metro 3YO Fillies
0.62	Metro Restricted F&M Handicap
0.61	Metro Class 5 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 84 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 83 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 82 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 81 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 80 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 79 Sat
0.61	Metro BM 84 Sat
0.61	Country Open 3YO
0.61	Provincial Open 3YO F&M
0.61	Metro Restricted Handicap
0.60	Metro Restricted 3YO
0.60	Metro Restricted Handicap
0.59	Metro Restricted 3YO
0.59	Metro Restricted 3YO Handicap
0.59	Metro Restricted 3YO
0.59	Provincial Stakes
0.59	Provincial Novice
0.58	Metro Restricted 3YO Handicap
0.58	Metro Restricted 3YO
0.57	Provincial Intermediate
0.57	Metro Restricted 3YO Handicap
0.57	Metro 2YO Qlty
0.56	Metro BM 84 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 83 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 82 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 81 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 80 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 79 Mid
0.56	Metro Class 5 Mid
0.56	Metro BM 84 Mid
0.56	Country Open 3YO F&M
0.56	Metro Restricted 3YO Fillies Handicap
0.56	Metro 3YO Fillies Handicap
0.56	Provincial Advanced
0.56	Metro 2YO Fillies Qlty
0.55	Provincial Intermediate
0.55	Provincial Stakes
0.55	Metro Open 2YO
0.55	Metro 2YO C&G
0.54	Metro BM 78 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 77 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 76 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 75 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 74 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 73 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 72 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 71 Sat
0.54	Metro BM 78 Sat
0.53	Metro 2YO Fillies
0.52	Metro Class 4 Sat
0.51	Metro Class 3 Sat
0.50	Provincial Intermediate
0.49	Metro Restricted 2YO Handicap
0.49	Metro 2YO Handicap
0.49	Metro Open Mid
0.49	Provincial 3YO
0.49	Provincial 3YO C&G
0.49	Provincial
0.48	Metro Restricted 2YO Fillies Handicap
0.48	Metro BM 78 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 77 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 76 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 75 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 74 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 73 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 72 Mid
0.48	Metro BM 71 Mid
0.48	Metro Class 4 Mid
0.48	Provincial 3YO Fillies
0.47	Provincial Open 2YO
0.47	Provincial 2YO C&G
0.47	Metro Class 3 Mid
0.46	Metro BM 70 Sat
0.46	Metro BM 69 Sat
0.46	Metro BM 68 Sat
0.46	Metro BM 67 Sat
0.46	Metro BM 66 Sat
0.46	Metro BM 65 Sat
0.46	Provincial 2YO Fillies
0.45	Provincial 3YO Handicap
0.45	Provincial 3YO C&G Handicap
0.45	Provincial Handicap
0.44	Provincial BM 78
0.44	Metro BM 70 Sat
0.44	Provincial 3YO Fillies Handicap
0.44	Provincial BM 78
0.44	Provincial BM 77
0.44	Provincial BM 76
0.44	Provincial BM 75
0.44	Provincial BM 74
0.44	Provincial BM 73
0.44	Provincial BM 72
0.44	Provincial BM 71
0.43	Provincial Class 6
0.42	Provincial 2nd Div 2YO
0.42	Provincial 2nd Div 2YO C&G
0.41	Metro BM 70 Mid
0.41	Metro BM 69 Mid
0.41	Metro BM 68 Mid
0.41	Metro BM 67 Mid
0.41	Metro BM 66 Mid
0.41	Metro BM 65 Mid
0.41	Provincial 2YO
0.41	Provincial 2YO C&G
0.41	Provincial 2nd Div 2YO Fillies
0.40	Provincial Class 5
0.40	Provincial 2YO Fillies
0.39	Metro BM 64 Sat
0.39	Metro BM 63 Sat
0.39	Metro BM 62 Sat
0.39	Metro BM 61 Sat
0.39	Metro BM 60 Sat
0.39	Metro BM 59 Sat
0.39	Country BM 78
0.39	Metro BM 70 Mid
0.38	Country BM 78
0.38	Country BM 77
0.38	Country BM 76
0.38	Country BM 75
0.38	Country BM 74
0.38	Country BM 73
0.38	Country BM 72
0.38	Country BM 71
0.37	Provincial 2YO Handicap
0.37	Provincial 2YO C&G Handicap
0.37	Metro BM 64 Sat
0.37	Provincial Class 4
0.36	Provincial 2YO Fillies Handicap
0.35	Metro Class 2 Sat
0.34	Metro BM 64 Mid
0.34	Metro BM 63 Mid
0.34	Metro BM 62 Mid
0.34	Metro BM 61 Mid
0.34	Metro BM 60 Mid
0.34	Metro BM 59 Mid
0.34	Provincial BM 70
0.34	Provincial Class 3
0.34	Provincial BM 70
0.34	Provincial BM 69
0.34	Provincial BM 68
0.34	Provincial BM 67
0.34	Provincial BM 66
0.34	Provincial BM 65
0.33	Metro Class 2 Mid
0.32	Metro BM 64 Mid
0.30	Metro Class 1 Mid
0.29	Country BM 70
0.28	Country BM 70
0.28	Country BM 69
0.28	Country BM 68
0.28	Country BM 67
0.28	Country BM 66
0.28	Country BM 65
0.27	Provincial BM 64
0.27	Provincial BM 64
0.27	Provincial BM 63
0.27	Provincial BM 62
0.27	Provincial BM 61
0.27	Provincial BM 60
0.27	Provincial BM 59
0.22	Country BM 64
0.22	Metro Maiden Mid
0.21	Country Class 2
0.21	Provincial Class 2
0.21	Country BM 64
0.21	Country BM 63
0.21	Country BM 62
0.21	Country BM 61
0.21	Country BM 60
0.21	Country BM 59
0.20	Provincial BM 58
0.20	Provincial Maiden
0.20	Provincial BM 58
0.18	Provincial Class 1
0.18	Country Class 1
0.15	Country BM 58
0.15	Country BM 57
0.15	Country BM 56
0.15	Country BM 55
0.15	Country BM 54
0.15	Country BM 53
0.15	Country BM 52
0.15	Country BM 51
0.15	Country BM 50
0.15	Country BM 58
0.10	Country Maiden
0.02	Picnic

The reality is that I don't believe my algorithm will be that sensitive to Class ratings if they are a little out. If there are glaringly obvious mistakes (such as a factor of 1.00 should be 0.2) then this will have a considerable effect. Anything within 25% (0.25) would probably to be considered to be in the noise so to speak however with every iteration the effect worsens considerably.

I am initially aiming for something that is within a perceived 10% (0.10) of true class rating as a first goal.

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

Last edited by Playlife : 9th December 2016 at 07:26 PM.

9th December 2016, 11:40 PM

walkermac

Member

Join Date: Nov 2013

Posts: 605

Code:

0.60	Metro Restricted 3YO
...
0.59	Metro Restricted 3YO
...
0.59	Metro Restricted 3YO
...
0.58	Metro Restricted 3YO

Are the dupes errors, or does the underlying data differ and the labels are just the same?

Also, shouldn't a Country BM 58, for example, be a higher rating race than a Country BM 50? ...unless you factor the 4kg difference in some other way, I guess.

Are maidens equally strong year-round? Do trainers throw them into a race as soon as they're ready, or do they target certain times of year so that if their horse responds well they might dodge the handicapper and get into higher-value races better weighted?

What about class ratings with respect to prizemoney? For example at Coffs Harbour today there was an Open race with $85k prizemoney and another couple with $35k prizemoney. Are they equivalent in your race rating system, or is the former rated higher on account of attracting stronger candidates?

Are you automatically specifying whether it's a provincial or metro race by venue? Victorian weekend metro races are held on provincial tracks 3 (or is it 4 now?) times per year.

Are Sydney/Melbourne Group races equivalent to those in other states? (Oh. I just re-read the thread and see that you queried something similar in your first post. My novice opinion: no. I'm not even certain that Melbourne Group races in Autumn are equivalent to Melbourne Group races in Spring...)

Those were my initial thoughts.

Cheers

10th December 2016, 09:39 AM

Playlife

Member

Join Date: Nov 2014

Posts: 33

Responses in red.

Quote:

Originally Posted by walkermac

Are the dupes errors, or does the underlying data differ and the labels are just the same?

Thanks for picking that up. They are different, it seems it did not display correctly when I copied the data over. I shall amend later.

Also, shouldn't a Country BM 58, for example, be a higher rating race than a Country BM 50? ...unless you factor the 4kg difference in some other way, I guess.

Country BM 58 is an error in copying across to the forum.

Are maidens equally strong year-round? Do trainers throw them into a race as soon as they're ready, or do they target certain times of year so that if their horse responds well they might dodge the handicapper and get into higher-value races better weighted?

Some of the ratings have different values depending on the month. I can post them in a separate list as it is > 12 columns wide.

What about class ratings with respect to prizemoney? For example at Coffs Harbour today there was an Open race with $85k prizemoney and another couple with $35k prizemoney. Are they equivalent in your race rating system, or is the former rated higher on account of attracting stronger candidates?

Unfortunately I was not able to take into account prizemoney since I cannot get the historical data for it. That is definitely an avenue I'd like to pursue. The data is readily available for group and listed races only (that I could find).

Are you automatically specifying whether it's a provincial or metro race by venue? Victorian weekend metro races are held on provincial tracks 3 (or is it 4 now?) times per year.

Yes, automatically specified by venue and day. However, all races that are Group/Listed and appear in the link below are treated separately and specified by their class, age, weight etc. http://www.racingaustralia.horse/ar.../2016-2017.aspx

Are Sydney/Melbourne Group races equivalent to those in other states? (Oh. I just re-read the thread and see that you queried something similar in your first post. My novice opinion: no. I'm not even certain that Melbourne Group races in Autumn are equivalent to Melbourne Group races in Spring...)

I agree. As to the weighting difference to apply, I'm not sure. Perhaps some factor according to pricemoney from group/listed races might be worth considering.

Those were my initial thoughts.
Cheers

Thanks for your constructive comments, they are a real help to further fine tune this list.

Personally I feel the list is too detailed but I await the results to see how the first analyses goes.

__________________
1977-1982
Gli Anni Della Febbre
Gilles Villeneuve

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