Neil,
Rotten luck with Super Elegant on Sat never thought Le Zagaletta would run it down,when it kicked clear in the straight I was counting the money. How many times as this happened over the I have lost count. OH the joys of punting. The main thing though I found 2.0 the place with Kafataris,so I grabbed that then waited for win fluctuations. Got 6.5 so I reckon I had a bet going for nothing with a good chance of a good priced horse saluting. Keep the specials coming especially at 6.5.

Cheers

G'day kenchar,

Although Super Elegant was beaten it was not from lack of trying by ace jockey Greg Childs. At the turn he was behind a number of horses but he summed up the position in an instant and drove his horse through a gap which presented itself and rode his horse very hard to the line only to be beaten by that old marvel La Zagaletta. This shows you why it is best to concentrate your bets to those runners which are ridden by masterful jockeys. Sure, he didn't win on this occasion but more importantly, Childs gave his mount every hope.

Cheers.

also prebble drove through a narrow gap on the grey ghost instead of hooking wide. his ride was superb.

how wide did arnold take magical miss. Universal prince couldnt have won from there.

Hi all, Super Elegant needed another run. Suffered from classic 2nd. up flatness. Would be impossible to catch now. It was a faily weak race anyway. Super Elegent might not have placed otherwise.

Thats my view anyway.

Cheers.



[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-01 11:55 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-01 12:00 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-09-01 14:47 ]

In summary, if we stick to backing class horses ridden by class, in-form jockeys then we should look forward to a profitable spring.
There is an old system which selects horses in the 1/1 - 7/2 range, ridden by one of the top three jockeys(or if you like, the top 3 strike-rate riders). If more than one runner qualifies, then back each or eliminate any that you choose to. This used to work extraordinarily well years ago but I haven't checked it for some time. It is a system directed specifically for featuire races and carnival time but it should also work very well on the very strong Victorian Spring Provincial carnival circuit(Bendigo, Werribee etc).
Maybe one of the forum's stats experts may be able to monitor this method.

Cheers.

bad luck guys you were close but no cigar?????????thats racing???????but i collected my cigar with the winner ,the old white casper....paid $5.00 not a bad result from my $5.00 horse racing software...jockey to follow brett prebble...

Hi Crash,
You said the Trainer & Foreman Of Super Elegant said that it was 1 run short.
You dont think thats because they wanted 11/2 about their horse and not 3/1 which it would have been had they got on the media and said it cant be beat BLAH BLAH. The 11/2 was available with about 1 minute to go lasted for 30seconds and started 5/1. Do think it might have been stable money at the last minute. Lets face it racing is about the almighty dollar not the love of horses. Just a thought on my part maybe right maybe wrong???????????

CHEERS

Xanadu,

Doesn't look too good.

Bear in mind that I selected my own jockeys and these stats are for about 8 months, so not limited to Spring Carnival.

Jockeys Considered
D Oliver
G Childs
K McEvoy

Tote Price Considered (at jump)
$2.00 => $4.50

Selections 130
Winners 36
Strike Rate 27.69%
Profit -$13.10
Profit On Turnover -10.08%
Average Dividend $3.25

Perhaps someone with a larger database can provide more feedback.

Incidentally, if you change the price to between $5.00 and $10.00.
Selections 242
Winners 39
Strike Rate 16.12%
Profit $27.40
Profit On Turnover 11.32%
Average Dividend $6.91


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-09-01 17:39 ]

Hi Kenchar,
It was a good run by Super Elegant. I couldn't believe the odds. Super Elegant was a massive overlay for both the win and the place.

Hi Crash, you wrote:
"Hi all, Super Elegant needed another run. Suffered from classic 2nd. up flatness. Would be impossible to catch now. It was a faily weak race anyway. Super Elegent might not have placed otherwise."

I'm not certain where you got Super Elegant as being second up from. This was its fifth run after a four week freshen up. Horses second up are also often very good bets. Horses second up being a risk is just another betting myth that is pushed in the media and yet another rule that many punters follow which helps them to avoid backing winners. Each horse second up needs to be looked at on its merits, and assessed against the field etc. it is meeting.

I agree with you Crash. It was a pretty ordinary Group 2 WFA race. But Super Elegant was racing against THAT field, not another field, so the comment that in a stronger race "Super Elegent might not have placed otherwise" is pretty much off topic. Super Elegant was selected as a strong bet in Saturday's race, NOT in another race.
Cheers, Neil

it did look a week field however if you look back to last spring le zagaleta lost the liston by a lip to sports and then ran a lip second to Northerly in the craiglee. so the ghostly grey is around where he was last year. Perhaps there are no Northerly's but there will always only be one Northerly!