i know lots of people on this forum won't like these systems at all, but i would just like to see some results that you can't argue with, so if anyone with a database could test either of these it would be GREATLY appreciated....

1:
We all know that about 33% of favourites win, so i think that if you back a favourite after the favourites of the day have had 4 consecutive losses, it should get some good results

2:
Look at these facts
-Many people go home before the last race cos they are broke
-if they are not broke, then they back an outsider to cover their losses

So i propose you back the favourite to WIN, providing it is more than $3.20, in the last race

Thanks to anyone in advance
Chuck

_________________
Class will always prevail over fitness, when the quality of the horses is not equal.

[ This Message was edited by: Chuck_3000 on 2004-08-28 07:20 ]

Not saying you are wrong but think of this....favs win more races early on in the day we have done this before and the winning % of favs starts to decline as the days races are run.....if you take your idea of backing a fav after 4 losses where do you start this...on any given saturday there are like 60-80 races we have all seen days where the favs wins everything and there have been days where the fav could not buy a win i think on these days that you would lose what ever profit you made on other days....not really sure how to back favs maybe some time of all-up system or parlay

[quote]
On 2004-08-28 07:19, Chuck_3000 wrote:
1:
We all know that about 33% of favourites win, so i think that if you back a favourite after the favourites of the day have had 4 consecutive losses, it should get some good results
***********************************

Chuck, my advice is don't do it, you'll go broke - chance has no memory and it matters tidily-do if four favs have lost in a row - BTW, the record is 32 losing in a row (at least on the Melbourne races).

What you propose is simply another of the gambler's fallacy type situations which always end up a disaster.

Shaun is correct, more favs win in the first four races then the last four.

Todays Results:
1:
Selections - 3
Wins - 1... all up $3.10
Places 2... all up $3.60

2:
Selections - 7
Wins - 2...$6.90
Places - 4...$5.90

Not toooo bad...but room for improvement
Chuck

I didn't realise more favorites won the first four races than the last four. This is useful information - what would be even more useful is to know why. Any theories anyone?

Smaller fields and lower standard of races. The early races are often 2yos, maidens and jumps which actually have a pretty good strike rate for favs. The success rate for favs is highest in Race 1 and declines from race to race throughout the day. However the prices are also shorter early in the day, so don't go thinking you can just automatically profit by backing favourites in the first race.