Anyone know the latest odds on PM Howard winning the next election?
Cheers.
darky.

Around $1.50 to $1.60.

And I thought I had a Gambling problem!

Yeah, people sure seem keen to put a bet on this election Mo. Personally, I gotta say that I think $1.50+ is great value too.

Been watching this on closely.

BTW: There was a 100k bet placed on Labour just this week.

Labour $2.52 = 40% (with about 40% of the money.
Coalition $1.50 = 67% (with about 60% of the money)

So looks like the market is about right, but doesn't match with the Polls. I think people are expecting the ALP to lose in NSW seats, like Banks (and maybe Greenway, which is usually safe ALP).

[i]
Labor would win election: poll
The Age August 28, 2004 - 9:14AM

Labor would easily win a federal election if it were held now, according to a new poll.

The nationwide Morgan Poll of 1,926 voters found two-party support for the ALP rose two percentage points to 55 per cent while coalition support slid to 44.5 per cent, its lowest since March.

Primary support for the ALP rose half a percentage point to 43.5 per cent while coalition primary support dropped one percentage point to 39 per cent.
[i]



[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-08-30 11:17 ]

Radio stations are starting to show their political sway, with most getting behind John Howard. Not surprisingly, support for Libs is statinrg to swing back.


At the start of this election campaign, who is your preferred Prime Minister?
Total votes: 8218
4134 50.3% Mark Latham
4084 49.69% John Howard




Howard bites into Labor lead
By Dennis Shanahan
August 31, 2004 -- AFP

JOHN Howard's base vote has lifted in the first weekend of the election campaign, despite damning disclosures about the children overboard affair.

The Coalition's primary vote has risen but Labor is still in an election-winning position, on the back of preferences from the Greens, Democrats and independents.


Odds:

Coalition $1.66
ALP $2.42

Polls vs. Bookies

"... we found, election betting markets run by the Northern Territory bookmaker Centrebet were a better guide than the pollsters"



http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004...3938920410.html

Coalition $1.63
ALP $2.54

[ This Message was edited by: jakelee on 2004-09-01 09:37 ]

Hello! - JAKELEE -
Waiting for my formula re-AFL.

Thank you.

Polls starting to turn...

Liberals take early lead in SA
By Chief Political Reporter PAUL STARICK in Canberra
September 2, 2004

THE Coalition has raced to the lead in the crucial battleground of South Australia, with an Advertiser poll showing Prime Minister John Howard ahead on his perceived ability to manage the nation's economy.

In the first insight into SA's voting intentions since the October 9 poll was called on Sunday, the Coalition leads Labor by 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Coalition $1.58
ALP $2.52

BETTER THE DEVIL YOU KNOW