Say, in a field of 12 runners which horses do I eliminate - those over a certain price or the who have poor recent form. Like those animals who were well beaten at their most recent start.

Any help is most welcome.

Benny

Looks like you've taken a step backward Benny! Happens to the best of us :lol:

If what you state,Benny stated,is true,then I think Benny is a bunny.
The quoted Benny is a genius.Well maybe mot a genius,but is well on his way to his first million.
Or Benny,are you a different Benny just starting out?
If so,never eliminate a horse because it is above a certain price.
You just can't describe how much nicer it feels to have backed a 40 to 1 shot winner,than a 6 to 4 winner.

All I'm trying to do is weed out the no hopers - then set about pricing the main chances.

Benny

Well that's easy.
Just keep the first five in the market.
You now have 66% or more of all winners.

[quote]
On 2004-09-13 17:08, Benny wrote:
Say, in a field of 12 runners which horses do I eliminate - those over a certain price or the who have poor recent form. Like those animals who were well beaten at their most recent start.

Any help is most welcome.

Benny - This isn't mine, but picked it up along the way, it appears to work, give it a go. La Mer

In the constant battle to find winners at the racetrack the punter must not take the process of “doing the form” lightly. He needs to develop a method of attack that is consistent, covers all the vital aspects of form, provides a sensible approach to determining value and, finally, is rewarding enough to be continued with confidence.

There’s little doubt that one of the most frustrating aspects of horse-race betting is to realize AFTER a race that you have missed and essential part of the form which could have made you a winner instead of a loser.

This post-race frustration can be controlled quite easily by using the “Pairs Analysis Technique” (PAT) I have developed. It is simple to implement, ensures you have thought about every runner and leaves very little to chance.

Most punters start their form analysis with TAB No.1 and work their way down the weights, discarding the no-hopers and mentally retaining the form and marginal chances. Alas, by the time all this initial analysis has been completed they have become somewhat lost in myriad form considerations, especially in the larger fields containing many chances.

They have difficulty in remembering that TAB No.1 meets TAB No.5 better at the weights, TAB No.2 is better at the distance than TAB No.7, TAB No.4 is better on today’s track conditions and that TAB No.8 meets TAB No.2 better at the weights but is not as good at the distance, and so on, until each of the individual components of form becomes a hazy blur.

My PAT method requires the punter to break the field down into PAIRS—i.e. TAB 1&2 is one pair, TAB 3&4 is another and so on. The punter then does the form on each pair as if that pair was one race comprising two runners and, most importantly, evaluates a ‘margin’ between the two once the ‘winner’ has been decided.

In a field of eight runners there will be four pairs. So, after comparing one against the other there will be four ‘A’ selections (the winners of the total of four two-horse races) which are the ones we initially continue to consider.

Let’s provide a field to make this clearer. The field is:

TAB 1: Tulloch

TAB 2: Gunsynd

TAB 3: Phar Lap

TAB 4: Rising Fast

TAB 5: Kingston Town

TAB 6: Dulcify

TAB 7: Gloaming

TAB 8: Archer

In this example let’s assume the “winners” were TAB No’s 2, 4, 6 and 8 which are Gunsynd, Rising Fast, Dulcify and Archer while the “losers” are Tulloch, Phar Lap, Kingston Town and Gloaming. Let’s say we calculate that:

2 Gunsynd beats 1 Tulloch by 0.5 lengths
4 Rising Fast beats 3 Phar Lap by 0.75 lengths
6 Dulcify beats 5 Kingston town by 1.0 lengths
8 Archer beats 7 Gloaming by 1.25 lengths
The “losers” are now no longer considered as they have been eliminated as contenders for the FINAL A selection. If you are a one-horse-per-race-only punter you will now need to create another set of pairs from the ‘winners’.

Thus, your new pairs are TAB No’s 2&4 and TAB No’s 6&8, which means you are comparing Gunsynd against Rising Fast and Dulcify against Archer and you must again provide a margin between each. The form is once again applied to each pair and we will assume the winners are Gunsynd and Dulcify.

This time we calculate that:

2 Gunsynd beats 4 Rising by 0.75 lengths
6 Dulcify beats 8 Archer by 0.25 lengths
Naturally, by now, you are into the gist of this technique! The next step is to once again apply the PAT on the remaining pair, Gunsynd and Dulcify (TAB No’s 2&6) and eventually you decide that your FINAL A selection is No.2 Gunsynd by 1.0 lengths.

By the time you reach this stage you have been forced to make a series of choices (using as many criteria as you normally do) between only two horses at a time, thus eliminating a major, if not total, part of the hazy blur mentioned earlier.

There should be NO after-the-race excuses because, if you have used PAT sensibly, your FINAL A selection has been calculated by thorough form analysis and not a process that formerly resembled a guess. There is no place in racehorse selection for guessing which horse is best, though there will be many times when we are guessing about the issue of fitness and other intangibles.

Almost all the work has been completed if you only want one horse per race without considering what price should be accepted. But what if the punter wishes to have more selections per race and wants to calculate a priceline? Well, the hard work has been done by providing margins along the way and it is a simple matter of organizing the margins into a format ready for the required calculations. Starting from Gunsynd we find, say, the following:

Sel Mrgn Name

A 0.00 Gunsynd

B 0.50 Tulloch

C 0.75 Rising Fast

D 1.00 Dulcify

E 1.25 Archer

F 1.50 Phar Lap

G 2.00 Kingston Town

H 2.50 Gloaming

By using the Don Scott tables in his books The Winning Way and Winning More we can assess a priceline for every runner based on a market of 100 per cent.

Sel Mrgn Kg Deci % % Odds Name
A
0.00 0.00 1.00 20.57 21 15-4 Gunsynd
B
0.50 1.00 0.80 16.46 16 11-2 Tulloch
C
0.75 1.50 0.67 3.78 14 6-1 Rising Fast
D
1.00 1.50 0.67 13.78 14 6-1 Dulcify
E
1.25 2.00 0.57 11.72 12 15-2 Archer
F
1.50 2.50 0.50 10.28 10 9-1 Phar Lap
G
2.00 3.00 0.40 8.23 8 11-1 Kingston Town
H
2.50 4.00 0.25 5.14 5 20-1 Gloaming

Key: ( Sel = Selection, Mrgn = Margin, Kg = margin in kilos, Deci = Decimals, % = Percentage).

This final assessment in its simplest form provides an order of expected finish between all runners and provides a professional market from just a simple process of comparing pairs of horses. You can, of course, use any individual way you prefer to work out the priceline.

Editor’s Note: Don Scott provided what he called a ‘Table of Advantages to Chances’ in his books. These enable you to work out each horse’s price provided you have established an estimated ‘margin’ in KILOS between each runner. Remember that ONE LENGTH is the equivalent of 1.5kg.

Scott’s table is as follows (it cannot be taken as being a 100 per cent accurate guide, but it does provide you with the opportunity to get reasonably close to a sound priceline):



EXPECTED MARGINS (KGS) DECIMAL ODDS

0.0 (top-rated)……………………………………1.00

0.5………………………………………………..0.90

1.0………………………………………………..0.80

1.5………………………………………………..0.67

2.0………………………………………………..0.57

2.5………………………………………………..0.50

3.0………………………………………………..0.40

3.5………………………………………………..0.33

4.0………………………………………………..0.25

4.5………………………………………………..0.20

5.0………………………………………………..0.14

5.5………………………………………………..0.11

6.0………………………………………………..0.08

6.5………………………………………………..0.06

7.0………………………………………………..0.05

7.5………………………………………………..0.04

8.0………………………………………………..0.03

It’s simple then to work out each runner’s decimal odds according to your estimated finishing margins between the runners. Your next task is to add them up. The total may come to, say, 3.75. You now divide each individual decimal odds figure by 3.75 and multiply the outcome by 100. This will give you the runner’s final estimated betting percentage.

In the case of Gunsynd (above) it was 21 per cent, which is equivalent to 15/4 according to the bookmakers’ tables of prices and percentages.


[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-09-13 19:06 ]

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-09-13 19:07 ]

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-09-13 19:08 ]

Benny

The following are a good rule of thumb whilst not being the 'be all and end all' they do help get regular winners (~30%POT)!

For them to qualify as a selection, they must:
- have placed >40% of the time (wins included)
- be in the top-5 in stake money. Caveat: beware a horse that has won 1 good race and nothing since as that may distort the $%
- have finished either 1st or 2nd last start OR in the top 4 placings
- have finished within 2 lengths of the winner or within 3 lengths if genuinely hampered in the straight
- not have risen >1.5kg over minimum from last start, OR 2kg if BELOW 55kg
- have had 3 to 4 starts back in their current campaign with a break of no more than 3 weeks from last start.

Also include Moeee's suggestion of using top 5 in SP and you should be pretty much covered.

Happy punting and good luck

Fast Eddy