Somewhat sadly, I don't have records going back far enough to verify my little system for picking the Melb Cup Trifecta. Any feedback from Forummers that have more data would be greatly appreciated.

I've always suspected that the most lightly raced runner in the market has the best chance in the Melbourne Cup, but I can't find anywhere on the Net these records. Finding the fields - no problem, but the age and sex and no of starts of each runner? Impossible.

That's theory one, which can easily be debunked I guess.

Theory two, is that entires don't like passing mares at the best of times, and never when the mares are on heat. Too many mares in the Melb Cup and too great one or more has the hots. Reckon they'd rather stay back and sniff around. OK, unorthodox theory - maybe.

So, theory test? Firstly, divide starts by age and rank field accordingly. Then eliminate entires, and last year the selections would have been Makybe Diva, She's Archie, Zagalia and Jardine's Lookout.

Hindsight's such a wonderful thing!!

The only other year I have these stats for is 2001. This same formula yielded Maythehorse, Ethereal,Persian Punch and Karasi. The result was Ethereal, Maythehorse and Karasi.

Does anyone have the results for other years to test?

Might be a system here?? Might be rubbish, and retrofit.

I recall that Vintage Crop would have rated 1st on the lightly raced factor. Kingston Rule probably would have as well. But, my records are lousy. Memory, which is sadly lacking.

Gut feeling? Well, as any of the serious punters on the forum know well, that'll only lead to a bad stomach ache!!!

Any further stats re Melb Cup would be greatly appreciated. Such an enormous pool for us forummers to get our teeth into!!!!!

gday bwheatle, ive got the melb cup best bets going back about 7-8 years i would guess so will dig them out over the next couple days & give your theories a workout




[ This Message was edited by: stugots on 2004-10-28 14:40 ]

no good in the few years i looked at 2000/1999/1998 soi stopped there although 1997 looked ok with might&power, but i could have tipped you that one

probably a good idea to box the 1st 4 each year just in case

Thanks for that Stugots, really appreciated. Of course, Murphy's Law would have it that it would only hold up for the two years I had the data for!!

Back to the drawing board - but I'll still take a 4 horse box just in case!!

as will i :smile:

hope you dont mind bwheatle but heres the selections for the system -

RAZKALLA (USA)
DISTINCTION (IRE)
MEDIA PUZZLE (USA)
WINNING BELLE (NZ)
DON RAPHAEL


looks like the locals may be in a spot of bother



[ This Message was edited by: stugots on 2004-10-31 20:13 ]

[ This Message was edited by: stugots on 2004-10-31 20:18 ]

[ This Message was edited by: stugots on 2004-10-31 20:19 ]

Quite right Stugots,

While difficult to see these imports running the tri, I'll take it nonetheless. In the rare event they salute, we'll bank a fortune!!

As for Winning Belle? According to history, and Bart Cumming's, mares don't back up well from runs on the Saturday prior. Still, Winning Belle's lightly raced and with the 80/1 available on Betfair have had a coverer.

Don Raphael? Well, he's travelled 20.5 kilometers prior to coming in to the cup. That's well above the average lead up. The only winner to have covered such distance prior was Media Puzzle. Still, huge odds available on this happening.

Certainly, if the bookies are to be believed, then history will be made on Tuesday.

Makbye Diva will need to overcome enormous historical obstacles. No mare has won a Melb Cup carrying this weight. The nearest was the giant Empire Rose that carried 53.5 kgs. No mare has won the cup two years in a row. And, no Sydney Cup winner has won the Melbourne Cup in the same year. Given that there's been
144 Melbourne Cups, I'd be looking for odds of 144/1.

Vinnie Roe's topweight, carrying 58 kgs. Historically, around 50/1 might tempt me.

Having said that, these two (at least according to the bookies) will run the quinella.

Ever compared the cars in the bookies to the cars in the punters carpark?

Say no more!!

my own working so far have indicated that distinction & media puzzle are the only raiders with realistic chances & i will certainly be including them in my other exotics.

razkalla - who? but i guess godolphin will win one one day

the don - love to see a horse & trainer like this win but hmmm not this year.

winning belle - what you said.

but after all that there is no harm in boxing them, just in case & wouldnt it be sweet