I came across a chart titled “What affects a horse’s performance in any particular competition” as I was going through a few boxes from my Vet student days and thought it might be of interest, but unfortunately I can’t paste it as part of this post/thread. The chart is broken down into 13 ‘slices’ (e.g. Muscles & Tendons, Joints and Ligaments, etc) of equal proportion. The 13th is Individual Unknowns. Essentially, the ‘slices’ are equal because no individual ‘factor’ can be accurately or scientifically quantified. Some of the ‘factors’ are beyond our control as punters (e.g. barrier attendants) and some we can analyze/handicap (e.g. jockey). For example, who knew She’s Archie’s wasn’t 100% right? Certainly not the vets that ‘checked her out.’ Who lost money backing her? The same applies to Starcraft and his “torn pectoral muscle.” When did it happen? Should punters (and stipes) have known about it earlier, if possible? I have looked at each ‘factor’ and added my 2 cents both from a veterinary perspective (vet school dropout) and also as a punter. Also included is if each ‘factor’ can be handicapped, IMO. Feel free to disagree or agree it’s a free world now Bushy has been re-elected pressy.

1. Muscles and tendons. Muscle sore horses can be easily recognized, but can you identify the integrity of the horse’s tendons? Can you ‘tell’ that the deep digital flexor is compromised with micro tears? Maybe handicappable (is there such a word?) IMO if you can ‘see’ the horse’s locomotion (before betting) or privy to ultrasound, etc;
2. Joints and ligaments. Are there any underlying problems that may affect the athlete’s performance? Has an ultrasound or radiograph been undertaken? What was the reading/result? Should the public be told? The answer is, of course, yes. Again maybe handicappable IF you have ‘seen’ the horse’s movement;
3. Health and fatigue. I would also include stress. In Hong Kong, to my knowledge, all veterinary intervention is recorded and displayed for public view. Should it not be the same for Australia and New Zealand? Handicappable IF you know what you are looking for;
4. Mental preparation. Handicappable IF you know how the horse behaves under certain conditions;
5. Physical conditioning, including race fitness. Is the horse fit enough? Has it had consistent trackwork? What’s normal for that horse? If it missed a few days or more, why? Handicappable if you have the information;
6. Soundness and shoeing. How is the horse walking? Short? Choppy? Overstepping? Any apparent foot problems? How is the hoof breakover? Handicappable if you know what to look for. Shoeing aspect applies more to Standardbreds;
7. Immediate surroundings. Could be included in ‘factors’ 3 & 4 but also when a horse travels. Is it a similar environment to what it’s used to? Different water? Smaller stalls? More or less horses around? If different, how and will it adversely affect the horse? Not handicappable unless you know the normal and current surroundings, although IS handicappable IF the horse is fractious in the birdcage prior to you having a bet (also refer #13.2 & 13.6);
8. Weather & track surface. I would include the variation between penetrometer read and actual track condition, and maintenance of same. Have sods been replaced? Has the horse raced on a similar surface before? What sort of track surface does it prefer? Slow? Fast? Handicappable. Alternatively, if it pours down when the gates are released on a dead surface and it’s a 2400m race, how will this affect your bet? Not handicappable;
9. Rider influences. Is the jockey returning from an injury (or fall), either that day or after a ‘break?’ Is it wise to back a horse when the jockey had a fall in the previous race? Can you guarantee that (s)he will be comfortable ‘in the saddle’ and give it a winning chance? Also, don’t confuse ability with experience. Does the jockey exude ability and confidence? Some jockeys are very experienced but you know a blind feral monkey will give the mount a better winning chance. Be wary of apprentices. Definitely handicappable;
10. Events during competition. Otherwise known as luck in the running. How do you factor in the horse getting checked or a clear run? You can’t precisely know where the horse/jockey will take up the running. Not handicappable even if you only back front-runners (is that an oxymoron?). Who is to say that it won’t be slow away or the riding ‘instructions’ have altered from the norm? What IS handicappable though is ascertaining the approximate race shape or doing a speed map, but still doesn’t alter how the race is run;
11. Skeletal conformation. Only handicappable, if you have seen the horse;
12. Genotype. At the end of the day, class will, like cream, come to the top and doesn’t matter if the horse is royally bred or something bought for $500. Does anyone use pedigree analysis these days? Not handicappable, with the possible exception of winter gallopers;

13. Individual Unknowns that I can think of, without the use of excessive grey matter:
13.1. Barriers, includes the starter and barrier attendants. Does the starter ‘keep’ the horses in the barrier for too long? If so, often the 1st loaded will be slow to leave. Is the attendant still holding the bridle or ear at release? Not handicappable;
13.2. Fractious horses, either in the birdcage or at the barrier. Do you know what caused them to become fractious or were they like that before entering the birdcage? Did something spook them? Can you get your bet off? Only handicappable if you haven’t bet yet. Can be included in #7;
13.3. Vet inspections at the barriers. Not handicappable;
13.4. Track size and shape. Has the horse competed successfully on the track before? Does it prefer left or right-handed tracks? Could tie into #8. Handicappable;
13.5. Barrier draw and distance to first corner. I don’t place any importance on barrier draws with a couple of exceptions, and they are: wide draw and short distance to first corner or start is on a bend, and pace setter with top weight drawn wide. Handicappable;
13.6. Travel. Has the horse traveled far? How does it travel? Has it lost any weight? Potentially handicappable; and
13.7. Nutrition. Did it eat everything on the morning of the race? Has the feed changed recently? Why? Generally not handicappable;

The point to my ramblings is simply to show you that there are a lot of unknowns to punting, some of which are handicappable and some are not, therefore all the more reason why you need precise, reliable information before placing your bet. You also need to know how to disseminate the information, that is, sort the wheat from the chaff and apply it using your own tried and true filters. You need to KNOW THE HORSE. Know what it can and can’t do, under what conditions it best performs, what is it’s weight carrying threshold, etc. You also need to recognize that some factors are well and truly beyond your control. Don’t sweat the small stuff friends.

If it’s as clear as mud or you want to add something, let me know.

Good luck and happy punting

I seem to recall a horse that had "done nothing" for a couple of starts and then won 2 or 3 on end.
When questioned, the trainer said that he had discovered that the birds had been s*&%$ing in the water trough. When he changed the position of the trough the horse was right.
So what chance has the poor old punter got!

__________________
Jose'.

Whilst all of this information could be helpful, I wouldn't have the time to spend analysing it all. Besides I think sometimes if you look into the form too much it becomes more and more confusing.

If you ever see a horse named "Intangible" entered for a race; let it be known that I'll be making it my Five Star Special of the Century. After years of studying form, I've come to the conclusion that it's the only certainty in racing.

Always enjoy your posts fast eddy; very much appreciated again on this occasion.


dundas lane .......

p.s. The Starcraft reference still "bites".

Yes it looks like there are a lot of ‘factors’ but you can easily reduce them by a) knowing the horse (factors 3, 5, 7-9, 11 and12) and b) looking at the horse in the birdcage, either in the flesh or on TV (factors 1-7). Part b) is also called physicality. I certainly don’t analyse each horse in the field and ask, “How are the horses muscles today? Does it look disinterested? . . .” I look at the whole picture and only break it down if something doesn’t ‘look’ right. It’s like looking at a runway of models. You generally will look at the entire body, from head to toe, and then focus in on her butt or face, or whatever. If you like or dislike an aspect of her body, you’ll remember it and then pick up on it next time you see her. Given time you can recognize when a horse has the right conditions to win and looks good. It’s no different to “value”. After a while, you instinctively know when a horse is value and when it’s not. At the end of the day regardless of how you make your plays/bets there are some ‘factors’ that are tangible, that is stuff you can control like your selection process and the jockey, and there are intangible factors, i.e. horse clips heels when in the trail, etc.

It doesn’t take long to ‘build’ a database of the main contenders and their traits and doesn’t take much to keep it up-to-date. Likewise, it only takes a few seconds to see if the horse is well and race ready.

Good luck if betting today.