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#1
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Does anyone have any thoughts on studying form and betting exclusively on a secluded area, mainly Perth, Tassie and Darwin to a lesser extent. I find the difficulty in lining up the form from e.g a heavy track maiden at a Kyneton thursday meeting to a Seymour saturday meeting maiden on a good track extremely difficult. There are so many variables involved when trying to line up these races. I am looking at purely looking at Perth racing where there is very little variation. They race on the same tracks with the same competition, generally on a fast or good track. It is however more difficult to gain tapes, times etc for these races if anyone knows where i could best source this info it would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers ED. |
#2
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Mr Ed, yes you are on the right "track" (dare I say it) though bare in mind that the 2 city tracks we have here are VERY different, and ALL the country tracks have their own peculiararities. But across the board, Perth is pretty well consistant
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#3
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Looking back on my records i find that i do better here in brissie...might have something to do with actually seeing the horses in the flesh ,knowing the tracks and trainers..I've long since given up on trying to work out country races...If i have a blackbooker running in a country race i try to rate the race best i can but it can be hard and if i'm not confident i just dont bet..
Melbourne is like a graveyard for me..i've practically stopped betting there.. So i guess you're right if i concentrated solely on brissie and surrounding tracks i'd be better off.. |
#4
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I personally concentrate all my efforts on Melbourne racing.
There are enough races going around to forget about maidens anywhere. The problem we have in lining up the form is that there is a diference in class between a restricted class race on a Monday, Saturday, Friday,etc., and a restricted class race on a Wednesday. All form guides identify these races as a C1, 2, 3, etc.regardless of which track or day they are run on. Maybe if Handicappers or whoever is responsible for categorising races had punters interests at heart,a $4000-00 C1 at Wangaratta on a Saturday would have a different classification to a $7000-00 C1 at Bendigo on a Wednesday. I find it particularly frustrating to have to refer to dates to get a handle on which day the race was run in order to get an idea of the quality of the race. As far as specialising on one area goes, it also follows that it might be a good idea to specialise on types of races. I find that distance races are difficult to predict because of the effect of differences in pace. Generally speaking, it might be a good idea to concentrate on races from between 1100m. and 1600m. Eliminate maidens and the weaker restricted class handicaps. |
#5
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Very good idea to restrict your betting on certain areas and I think in Australia, your 3 secluded areas would be the best options.
I also heard that Hong Kong only has about 2-3 meetings per week with a horse pool of around 700. I think the results would be more predictable and consistant, but remember, it is the same for all punters. There would be more money to make in Melb, Syd etc if you are any good (who is??) but for more consistant winners, perhaps paying less on the tote, seclusion is the way to go... As far as sourcing tapes and other info, I can't help you. |
#6
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You'd cringe to here this Imagele but a good mate of mine only bets on distance maidens. He studies hard and shows very healthy profits. He believes the distance aspect sorts out most of the first starters who you have no idea about. And he likes maidens because of the set weights and similar form lines they produce. Just funny how two serious punters have such differing views. I lived in Darwin for three years through 1999 - 2002, great place to punt but you are dead right BJ you find many short priced commoditities for these very reasons. Would love to be able to just do Darwin, Alice form but the pools are just to insignificant to profit from, And no betting agency will bet fixed odds.
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#7
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Perth is a great spot to bet if you do your form. Sometimes it seems everyone in the world knows something is going to win though. i.e Exchequer on the weekend. But he ended up paying 2.30 which is ok for a good thing. But look at some of the value on the weekend - Crown Prosecutor paid $13sp and $11 on the tote. He was beaten favourite with excuses in a harder race last start. Local Legend I thought was great value and then the two good things of the day in ellicorsam and exchequer bith won very well. Great Place to bet if you do your form. I also think a lot of people blindly follow harvey(as good as he is he is not going to ride every winner on the card). Also a lot of favourites seem to come up short so if you dont like it it is easy to build a book.
cheers |
#8
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I don,t worry too much about track conditions at all my main concerns are Dist Range,fitness,class,barrier,jockey,and where I think the horse will be running.
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