paid $8 for a small bag of blood and bone at the hardware last week for my new garden..
had to be an omen. cant believe the price. must have been some nasty rumours against it . thank goodness i didnt hear them.
there is something about drawing a barrier in brisbane.
most wide draws get jerked back to last good draws seem to grow a leg.
note show biz kid.

__________________
laurie

Used that theory once in Brisbane in a major sprint race.
The winner and placegetters came from 16, 18 and 19.
Don't think I've paid much attention to barrier draws ever since.
They only make the price better.

Yep good old blood n bone,it does wonders for your tomatoes by the way
it paid $14.90 up here
My mate had just come off a big win on SHOWBIZ KID $28.70 and a $1021 treble so we had a good day,then someone with long floppy ears suggested we better get on Peter lonard again in the golf
Cheers

Imagele raises a question that has given me a lot of difficulty over the years.

do you look to barriers 1-8 for a good chance or do you look to barrier 1 - 20 which includes the whole field and all the problems that go with.
there is a lot of luck in racing and I think that if I cant pick the barrier 16 horse that wins it is just another race in which I will back the loser.
and then only if I have a horse that I think can win from barrier 1 -8.
spreading ourselves too far is a big problem in racing.
betting against luck is a big ask.

but further over the past recent times I have commented that many horses (favored) are hooked back early from wide barriers. Is it that they have conced they cannot win from the barrier. Its a good question and I was inferring that perhaps showbiz kid and blood n bone answered it.

__________________
laurie

Topsy
I was looking at the last race at Traralgon early yesterday and 2 horses took my eye.
I noted that Stratus faction and She's Gun had wide draws and the thought crossed my mind that their task would be difficult.
I didn't get back to this race due to other commitments but when checking the results I notice that Shes Gun won at $14-90 and stratus Faction 2nd. at $3-10.
The other horse I rated, Just Ryah, ran 3rd.
I suspect that if I had got back to this race my judgement would have been affected by the draws to my detriment.
I guess my point is that if you snag a $15-00 winner from a wide barrier, you can afford to back some other losers from wide draws.
Your strike rate from wide draws relative to the price that you achieve will probably equal your returns from selections drawn 1-8.

interesting points imagele.
i wonder had the race been at eagle farm or a group race at randwick how barrier 15 or 16 would go.

but the point i am interested in is at what stage do you stop including every horse as a chance. i have no doubt if the best horse in the race is drawn at 15 then its probably a no bet race.

theorists contend that the experts in racing have it sorted out like this.
in a 10 horse race all things equal there is a 11% chance of picking the winner
but the punters by weight of money have it sorted to 30% - 33% e.g. the fave wins this percentage the rest is luck.
what proportion of that luck is good barriers is the question.
dismiss it if you like but at the end of the day on most tracks it has potential.
my recent interest was stirred by the way shortpriced horses hook back in brisbane.
i will keep watching. good luck with your method.
i am merely sharing my thoughts with those interested in reading.

__________________
laurie

DITTO. (re your last sentence)