My Christmas belly was full, 'tis now empty. Time to get some winners so we can fill it again.

Here's my thoughts for Flemington tomorrow, new years day, and the Perth Cup also. Will probably do more but won't have time to post. Black Tom is the one I will be backing in the Perth Cup. Free at Last no value. Did end up backing her last week when she won, however it looks like she might be SHORTER tomorrow and she has MORE WEIGHT. To quote Gollum, "we don't like its!" Whilst she is my top pick, rated $5.40 she'll be nowhere near that price.

PS - these prices are 80%.

ENJOY PUNTING.

WA

race 8 7.20
seln mgn price name
1 0.0 $5.4 FREE AT LAST
6 0.5 $6.6 BLACK TOM
4 0.9 $9.1 LAETARE
11 1.2 $10.6 JUST A KISEKI
12 1.6 $14.6 LOCAL PRODUCT
3 1.9 $18.8 SIR PENTIRE
5 2.1 $23.7 CROWN PROSECUTOR
9 2.6 $42.4 HIGGINS GOLD

MELB

race 5 3.30
seln mgn price name
9 0.0 $6.4 PORTO DOURO
4 0.3 $7.2 MODERN ERA
7 0.5 $7.9 EVASION
2 0.5 $8.1 CAPADAN
1 0.7 $9.3 MR OHARA
3 1.2 $12.7 IRISH CRUSADER
8 2.4 $36.3 MASAI-NZ
10 2.6 $48.7 WINKLER
race 6 4.10
seln mgn price name
3 0.0 $7.3 BROADBAND
1 0.0 $7.3 SUPER IMPRESS-NZ
6 0.9 $11.8 BLESSUM
8 1.1 $13.5 CONFEDERATE KID
13 1.2 $13.9 SAVAGE ATTACK
2 1.2 $14.1 CHONG TONG
5 1.7 $20.9 SHANGOS IMAGE
9 1.8 $23.9 GUNNER TOM
race 7 4.50
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $5.6 LIMITED IMPULSE
1 0.5 $7.1 RED HANNIGAN
9 0.7 $7.9 VALEDICTUM
5 0.9 $9.4 FINE OMENS
2 1.2 $10.6 CATCH ME MATE
4 1.5 $14.3 REEF BEACH
8 2.3 $31.0 MYSTIC MORSE
3 2.6 $42.7 CLOWNS
race 8 5.30
seln mgn price name
3 0.0 $7.6 ASHKALANTE
5 0.4 $9.2 SIR PENTIRE
4 0.5 $9.6 BRUGES
2 1.3 $16.4 FAWAZ
15 1.4 $16.8 THE BIGHEARTE-NZ
13 1.4 $17.0 FOREST PRIDE
16 1.4 $17.4 LANDLOPER
1 1.5 $18.6 DEMERGER

Missed your ratings again Duritz!
Maybe I'll catch them next time.

Just making the comment that you seem to have between 6 to 8 horses finishing within 2 lengths in every race!
This does happen but not that often.
I'm sure there is some other system that can be combined with your ratings to spread the field finish out a bit!

Moee the margins aren't lengths, so you're actually best to ignore that bit of it. It's just there from a pricing point of view, the important bit is actually the assessed price. As to them, they went very well yesterday. I backed three of the four winners in the races I did at Flemington, ie Evasion at 8.0 Super Impressive at 10 and Valedictum at 15. Had four horses going with a mate in the quaddie final leg too, for amounts ranging each from 3700 to 12,000 for each of us but couldn't get closer than third. Ah well, still had a very good day. Blowout in the Perth Cup but can't win them all.

Duritz

Duritz,

That was very nicely done at Flemington - I gave up the meeting as too hard. As for the 8th race, Beaujolais Prince did run on strongly behind Bruges and Ashkalante at their previous encounter, but you had to guess that he'd run the 2,500m when all his wins were in the 1,400m-1,600m range (although he is by Jeune, if you consider breeding a factor when guessing such things). He also has a terrific strike rate, met Bruges (and Ashkalante) better at the weights and was better drawn. Even so, it was a lottery race.

Cheers,

F

ps. Where do you bet to get such nice odds?

Largely Betfair. Also use Austote when the pools are good, as they were at Flemington and usually are on Saturdays. Annoyed that Austote stopped betting on Perth races though. They started out doing just that but must not want to keep the office open for an extra couple of hours. Absurd notion. Perth races are an excellent betting proposition and attract good pools. By not betting on them all they do is give the impression of not being a professional outfit. You'd never see IAS or any of those mobs not betting on Perth metro meets.

Don't like the Valley today, small fields, midweek class horse. Am getting a Hong Kong database going, think I'll work on that.

Duritz.

I must add though that the only horse I really got any overs on from those three was Valedictum. The others were almost exactly what the tote paid.