Neil, Are the Super Specials only available if the full package is purchased? not quite clear on that one. Also I read with great interest that many "SERIOUS PUNTERS" are working on 1-2% POT long term. Does that mean that the guy who's currently showing 53%POT on the Specials is in for a hard time ahead?

Hello,

The Super Specials are part of the Premium Betting Package. They are not marketed separately.

You wrote:
"Does that mean that the guy who's currently showing 53% POT on the Specials is in for a hard time ahead?"

Past results statistically have no influence on how future results will go. Because you've had a very good run with 50, 100, 200 bets doesn't mean the next 50, 100, 200 will be no good.

However, 50%, 40%, 30% very long term profits is an unrealistic expectation.

Over a huge number of bets we'll be satisfied if we can obtain around 10% POT. This doesn't rule out the possibility of sequences of say 100 bets making 50% POT, nor does it rule out the possibility of 100 bets actually making a negative return.

We expect serious, disciplined punters to understand this, unlike the small casual punter who usually expects miracles from a tipping service and when a few selections lose says, "They're no good."

I played blackjack counting cards accurately and eventually Crown Casino restricted me, admitting I would beat them over the long term. But even when I had a significant advantage I could easily lose over a sequence of 100, 200, 300 bets placed.

Unfortunately that is the nature of the betting game, even when you have an edge.

Cheers, Neil

Don't think that's quite right, Neil.

You can certainly make 30%+ profit on turnover at the races - the problem is, to do so you really have to limit the number of bets. If you're really selective - say 1-3 bets per week - then high % profits are achievable The downside is that your bank doesn't turn over very quickly.

On the other hand, if you're operating on the basis of only winning 10% on turnover, that is achievable with many more selections per week and higher turnover.

One of my selection methods runs at about 100 bets per month/ 36% winners to runners/ 18% profit (more than 2000 to date).

Another runs at about 15 bets per month 50% winners and almost 40% profit. Interestingly, I've found that if you can find a method that returns 50% winners to runners and bet on it regardless of the bookmaker odds, the average price of the winners is always around $2.80...strange.

Overall, my preference is for the high turnover/ lower return bet types but it's a matter of personal taste.

Anyway, I wouldn't be accepting 10% profit as any sort of benchmark - there's more fat in the bookies' markets than that.

Cheers

Oh how true Neil!

The casual punter expects unrealistic miracles if they pay for something.
This is the downfall of these punters, because they will never have the patience or discipline to make racing pay longterm. They'd rather have a 200% POT one day only, than win over a year.

Every significant punter I know or know of, that wins longterm operates on a small margin of profit, but high volume of turnover or very large wagers on a small number of bets .

Anything else is chasing miracles.

With your first method just level staking $200 would turn over $20,000 per month and give you $3,600 tax free per month. Even with just another $200 on your other 15 bets per month you'd get another $1200 tax free. That makes $4,800 per month tax free. I guess you must be a full time professional living of the punt. Good on you, Filante.

Assuming you start with $20,000 bank on the first system and bet $200 on every selection, doubling your bet when each time your bank doubles, you'll be a millionaire in less than five years.

In ten years you'll have almost as much money as Donald Trump, hopefully you can spend $20 and get a good haircut.

I just do it for a hobby - I wouldn't turn over anything like $20,000 a month; more like $80,000/year. But I appreciate the irony of Mr "Logic" using rhetoric in an attempt to make my figures seem extraordinary.

I did post my bets for about a week and a half not long back under the heading "My Bets for (date)". The result of that was over 40% winners at over 30% profit. I also posted around 50 best bets over a period of about a month with similar results.

Go check 'em for yourself.

Filante, you misunderstood me. I just assumed you would have to be a professional with results like those. I also assumed your bets would be higher than the amounts I gave above. That was just for illustration purposes. I can't imagine too many social punters who if they could obtain your results would keep it as just a hobby. Then at least admit that you have been seriously tempted to go professional.

Oh really?

I don't think I misunderstood you at all. I think your comment was a thinly veiled, gratuitously offensive, expression of sarcastic incredulity at the figures I gave. It demonstrated a kind of small-minded ignorance.

Anyway, no offence taken.

And, what do you mean by "going professional"? - give up my job and put more money on the horses? That sounds like a pipe-dream for losers with dull jobs.

I just do it for a hobby - I wouldn't turn over anything like $20,000 a month; more like $80,000/year.
You would make $80 000 /year as a hobby,and you don't wont to give up you day job?

I got nothing more to say.
cheeeeeeers.