Think it's just that she has so many good horses in the same races.

Red Oog definitely is a first up specialist. Yesterday makes it 5 first up runs for 4 wins and a 3rd. And I assume the announcer was like me in referring to a real spell as being 12+ weeks, not one of these little mini spells of 6 weeks or so. He was one of my best bets yesterday as was Shania Dane.

Ok, I stand corrected.... I had a closer look at his form and I can see that he had 12 weeks off between 18/9/04 and 9/10/04 and won his first race back at Rosehill over 1200 carrying 56kg...

I should have seen that, but I can't see that that makes him a first up specialist. He's only had 9 starts in the last 12 months...

I had him as third pick in my assesment with Resistor and Dance the Waves on top, Domigos and Presently were next best.

I went with Dance The Waves & Resistor with Red Oog, Presently & Damigos as savers..

It really wories me when one gets under me like that as clearly my assesments need improvement. I ended up with the first 5 finishers but not in my desired order.. Same sort of thing happened in R8 but I will admit Dance Hero was clearly the class horse in the race. I had the first 4 (not the bet, just my assesment)

Oh well, so much yet to learn.

Regards

OzPunter

Don't you look back past the last 12 months? Red Oog had had 4 previous first up runs for 3 wins and a 3rd in it's entire career. I'm sure most form guides should tell you that.

Saturday was a real downer for me....I'm a bit annoyed with some of my bets..
Infinite grace was way to risky especially in sydney..Tristo was risky especially after the rain and his pattern of racing..
Baraba rd in adelaide is starting to costing me as well...
Thank god for the roller..after watching ballet society i couldn't have enough on him,,,
I layed out fairly large on tris and 1st4's and had my first loss in 2 months..
wich tells me its not panick time yet but a good wake up call....

in a nother post i was talking about money pit horses.
barraba road is in the category as is cobamuse.
a feature of adelaide races is that longevity isnt a great attribute lately.
llast years horse is exactly that.
chaff stealers i think they call them.

had a couple of good wins yesterday among some losers.
cats clause (had to back the tasmanian) and niagara falls. )
i wonder about the weight for age races in sydney as i have always done for many years. seems to be a gift for the top trainers.
iimagine 5 horses in the ranvet.
reminds me of tie the know who no doubt was a good horse but won 8 million or something like it but only once outside sydney.
(probalbly be corrected on that but i recall him winning a group one in melbourne (underwood i think)

__________________
laurie

Small WFA fields are neither a new phenomenon nor a bad thing.

I remember Kingston Town in a small field in the Caulfield Stks one year. 4 genuine top class WFA horses then a cockroach called Moist that was maiden class and went around at 1000/1. Got in the way of a couple when tiring at the 800m. My point is ... better a small quality field than puff the numbers out with hopeless flesh. Melbourne Cup week is notorious for big fields ( the TAB love it ), and very ordinary horses ( the serious punters hate it ). Excluding the Group races of course.

Grand Armee can't be held responsible for being so good. Elvstroem was flat chat winning two starts back and finished 2 lengths ahead of Vouvray. Grand Armee beat Vouvray by nearly 6 and pulled up the last bit AND went within a second of the course record on a dead track AND made the running himself.

I put it to you that had Elvstroem been parked second behind GA at Rosehill yesterday he would have finished a gallant second beaten about 3 lengths. GA is a top WFA performer, Elvstroem a rung below. The Elvstroem camp will be very pleased to hear the champ is staying home for a $2 million race at Rosehill rather than traipse to dreary Melbourne for a mere $1 million.

I remember a horse called Long Close a 3 legged donkey (many years ago) that beat 3 of the BEST class horses in England in a 4 horse race, it carried an extra burdon of I think 5 bob (from Memory) of mine, and still won! @100/1

I remember another 2 horse race (more common than you would think in England) the Fav.(1/25) was about a furlong in front of the other one @20/1
on form, but that didn't stop it from rearing up at the start and losing a heap of ground that was to prove impossible to make up to the line!

Not to mention ARKLES' ultimate defeat by DUNKIRK, by a nose albeit with a broken fetlock .

The point!!??? well what do you reckon?????