There are plenty of ways to win and lose on the punt. What are the main factors that people use in their methods?

Here's the 10 things I look at -

# Prizemoney

# Place %

# Win %

# Position last start

# Record over distance

# Record at track

# Odds

# Weight

# Change in distance from last start.

# Beaten margin last start.

PLSDR method

Take the top 6 horses in the pre-race market and rank via the following:

# Prizemoney

10pts - ranked 1st by prizemoney/race
8pts - 2nd
6pts - 3rd
5pts - 4th
4pts - 5th
3 pts - 6th
2 pts - 7th
1 pt - 8th

# Last start
10pts - 1st
8pts - 2nd
6pts - 3rd
4pts - 4th
3pts - 5th
2pts - 6th
1pt - 7th

# Distance record
Win % at dist
10pts - 100%
8pts - 75%
6pts - 66%
4pts - 50%
2pts- 33%
Bonus Points
6 pts for 2 wins at distance
8 pts for 3 wins at distance
10 pts for 4+ wins at distance

Place % at dist
8pts - 100%
6pts - 75%
4pts - 66%
2pts - 50%
Bonus Points
3 pts for 2 places at distance
4 pts for 3 places at distance
5 pts for 4+ places at distance

IF NO STARTS AT DISTANCE -
5pts if won 1 race within 100m
8pts if won 2
12pts if won 3
16pts if won 4+

(NOTE: for 2000m-2400m races, award same points if won within 200m)

Back the horse with the highest no of points.



_________________
Love the Randwick mile.



[ This Message was edited by: Red Machine on 2002-06-06 10:59 ]

I guess there's only 1 way then

No there are lots of ways.

Look for horses with price between about $8 and $20.
Convert price to winning chance % (eg. $10 = 10%, $15 = 6.25%)
Analyse form for those horses and come up with the chance of each one winning.
Bet on any horses where chance of winning is better than the odds (eg. if horse is $10 but you estimate has 15% chance of winning then bet on that one).
If betting on TAB only bet within 30 seconds of race jump if price is still OK (allow a margin on TAB betting to allow for price change after jump).