Ratings Challenge

[Sportz]

Okay, we'll start this officially this week. People who didn't put ratings in last week are welcome to join in with the rest of us this week. You can use any sort of method you like to get your ratings.

Simply list your top 5 rated runners in order with their prices using a 100% market.

2 races to rate this week:

CAULFIELD R4-ROBERT TARANTO HANDICAP 1980 M ($50000)
1 MY GIBREEL John Hawkes J Benbow (a3) 10 58
2 CLOWNS John Hawkes D Gauci 5 57.5
3 IRISH CRUSADER (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith M Flaherty 7 57
4 MODERN ERA Brian Mayfield-Smith V Hall 3 57
5 CAPADAN (NZ) Ross McDonald N Callow 2 56.5
6 YOU LITTLE BEAUT Tony McEvoy D Oliver 11 56.5
7 ASHKALANTE Cliff Brown S W Arnold 9 55.5
8 MANY ARE CALLED Geoff Daffy N Wilson 6 54.5
9 NO HIGH NO SONG Greg Eurell L Nolen 1 54.5
10 LANCASTER'S GOLD John Ledger S Baster 4 54
11 BIKKIE TIN BLUES Mark Houlahan R Maloney (a3) 8 54

CAULFIELD R5-RUPERT CLARKE STAKES 1400 M ($75500)
1 CHONG TONG Lee Freedman D Nikolic 3 58
2 BROADBAND Lee Freedman D Oliver 4 57
3 LORD VOLKSRAAD (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 6 56
4 MR. LOFTY (NZ) Peter G Moody L Nolen 7 54.5
5 SHANGO'S IMAGE Geoff Daffy N Wilson 8 53.5
6 YOUTH John Hawkes D Gauci 1 53.5
7 SMART AND MIGHTY Nick Cox K McEvoy 2 53
8 GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman N Ryan (a) 5 52.5
9 TUAREG John Hawkes J Benbow (a) 9 52

Okay, let's see how we go. Not big fields, so if our ratings are any good, we should be able to go pretty close.

Anyway, good luck.

[system]

no4 modern era $4.9
no2clowns $6.7
no8 many are called $6.7
no9 no high no song $6.7
no1 my gibreel $9.00


no6 youth $4.3
no3 lord volksraad $4.7
no8 grundy,s crossing $4.7
no7 smart and mighty $5.9
no2 broadband $9.4
no9 tuareg $9.4

[Sportz]

Geez, that was quick! :)

[Filante]

no4 modern era $4.9
no2clowns $6.7
no8 many are called $6.7
no9 no high no song $6.7
no1 my gibreel $9.00


no6 youth $4.3
no3 lord volksraad $4.7
no8 grundy,s crossing $4.7
no7 smart and mighty $5.9
no2 broadband $9.4
no9 tuareg $9.4

System,

In the second race that looks like 6 picks at 104%...

F

[Sportz]

Well, they're obviously equal 5th picks. It would be better if people could provide only 5 picks, but if you do have equal 5th rated horses, please try to at least put them in some order of preference. As for the odds, that's not absolutely crucial, but it would be much better if people could use a 100% market to price their horses. Some people's ratings are listed in kgs, some in lengths, some in points etc etc, so giving each horse a price is a good way for us to make a good comparison between methods.

[xptdriver]

System,

In the second race that looks like 6 picks at 104%...

F

Gday All,

just to get this clear... do I rate the 5 picks as the only horses in the field ie 100% of the market or do I do as I normally do rate the whole field as 100%. Then post the top 5?

[DR RON]

xptdriver,

rate the whole field to 100% and then list your top five.

[Sportz]

do I rate the 5 picks as the only horses in the field ie 100% of the market or do I do as I normally do rate the whole field as 100%. Then post the top 5?

Yeah, as Ron said, rate the WHOLE FIELD to 100%, but only post the top 5.

Sorry I didn't make that clearer in my initial post. :o

[Duritz]

LOL we haven't even run a race yet and there's queries everywhere!!!

[Sportz]

Yep.

Well, I've been looking after the tipping comp for the last 4 or 5 months, so I know all about that. :D

[Shaun]

MR4
4 Modern Era (3) $4.53
2 Clowns (5) $5.66
6 You Little Beaut (11) $8.98
10 Lancaster's Gold (4) $9.18
1 My Gibreel (10) $10.69


MR5
6 Youth (1) $5.75
2 Broadband (4) $5.81
1 Chong Tong (3) $5.82
4 Mr. Lofty (NZ) (7) $6.99
7 Smart And Mighty (2) $7.89

[system]

sportz just remove the bottom selection tuareg.
cheers mate

[Chrome Prince]

MR 4

BIKKIE TIN BLUES $5.38
CLOWNS $7.45
MODERN ERA $8.39
IRISH CRUSADER $8.81
LANCASTER'S GOLD $9.57

MR 5

LORD VOLKSRAAD $2.58
BROADBAND $6.03
CHONG TONG $6.49
YOUTH $10.08
GRUNDY'S CROSSING $12.45

[QuickFunBet]

MR4

8. Many Are Called $5.50
4. Modern Era $6.00
2. Clowns $7.00
6. You Little Beaut $9.00
9. No High No Song $9.50

MR5

2. Broadband $4.00
7. Smart And Mighty $6.50
8. Grundy's Crossing $9.00
6. Youth $9.50
9. Tuareg $12.50

Thanks

[Top Rank]

Race 4:

Modern Era - $4.20
My Gibreel - $7.00
No High No Song - $7.00
Clowns - $10.00
Lancasters Gold - $10.00


Race 5:

Lord Volksraad - $2.60
Broadband - $3.30
Chong Tong - $6.50
Youth - $6.50
Smart and Mighty - $16.00

Good Punting

[DR RON]

Race 4

Ashkalante $3.50
My Gibreel $8.00
Bikkie Tin Blues $8.00
Many Are Called $10.75
Clowns $12.65

Race 5

Youth $4.85
Grundys Crossing $6.90
Shangos Image $6.90
Chong Tong $8.00
lORD vOLKSRAAD $8.00

[ubetido]

race 4

modern era $3.7
clowns $6.6
capadan $8.6
many are called $9.7
no high no song $10.6


race 5

youth $3.7
grundys crossing $6.2
smart and mighty $8.6
chong tong $9.7
lord volksraad $10.6

[Duritz]

My ratings to 100% as follows -

race 4 2.30
seln price name
4 $3.2 MODERN ERA
7 $4.6 ASHKALANTE
6 $6.2 YOU LITTLE BEAUT
1 $10.6 MY GIBREEL
11 $13.3 BIKKIE TIN BLUES

race 5 3.10
seln price name
4 $4.2 MR LOFTY
6 $5.6 YOUTH
9 $7.0 TUAREG
2 $8.4 BROADBAND
3 $10.0 LORD VOLKSRAAD

PS - If any more rain comes, Tuareg will be harder and harder to beat, very well in with 52.

[zorro]

Race 4
4 5564-Modern Era (3) $2.70
3 0205-Irish Crusader (NZ) (7) $5.00
5 8067-Capadan (NZ) (2) $6.80
11 0263-Bikkie Tin Blues (8) $8.30
1 3817-My Gibreel (10) $9.30

Race 5
6 x6x4-Youth (1) $4.10
2 6214-Broadband (4) $4.10
3 0902-Lord Volksraad (NZ) (6) $5.70
7 3227-Smart And Mighty (2) $7.50
4 x340-Mr. Lofty (NZ) (7) $9.30

[the mug]

Ratings

M4
6- You little beaut $4.25
1- My Gibreel $4.25
4- Modern Era $6.50
9- No High no Song $10.50
7- Ashkalante $13.00

M5
4- Mr.Lofty $4.70
6- Youth $5.50
2- Broadband $6.00
1- Chong Tong $8.50
5- Shango's Image $9.50

Please note- If the rain continues, caulfield will most likely become a front runner bias, with rail out 12m also...me thinks..
cheers

[Sportz]

If any more rain comes, Tuareg will be harder and harder to beat, very well in with 52.

Is that likely? Is it raining now?

[La Mer]

Okay, we'll start this officially this week. People who didn't put ratings in last week are welcome to join in with the rest of us this week. You can use any sort of method you like to get your ratings.

Simply list your top 5 rated runners in order with their prices using a 100% market.

2 races to rate this week:

[B][U]CAULFIELD R4-ROBERT TARANTO HANDICAP

[B][U]CAULFIELD R5-RUPERT CLARKE STAKES

Caulfield Race 4
4: Modern Era $4.20
2: Clowns $5.00
1: My Gibreel $6.50
8: Many Are Called $8.50
6: You Little Beaut $11.50

Caulfield Race 5
2: Broadband $4.20
3: Lord Volksraad $5.00
1: Chong Tong $6.50
6: Youth $8.50
7: Smart And Mighty $11.50

[Sportz]

Okay, all this talk about rain has got me worried now, but anyway, here goes:

Race 4:
4 MODERN ERA $4.05
9 NO HIGH NO SONG $5.80
6 YOU LITTLE BEAUT $9.25
11 BIKKIE TIN BLUES $9.25
1 MY GIBREEL $10.70

Race 5:
2 BROADBAND $2.10
6 YOUTH $4.25
3 LORD VOLKSRAAD $8.85
1 CHONG TONG $10.60
7 SMART AND MIGHTY $12.45

[the mug]

sportz, dont let me scare you, i have no meteorological experience whatsoever but have a look at the radar..

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml

i'm more northern melbourne, where its been raining here most of the morning. whether caulfield gets any rain i'm not so sure..

cheers

[Sportz]

It's just that I was fairly confident on a dry track. Now I'm not nearly so confident.

[Heavyweight]

MR4

9. No High No Song 22% $4.60
4. Modern Era 21% $4.80
5. Capadan 12% $8.50
11. Bikkie Tin Blues 10% $10.00
2. Clowns 10% $10.00

MR5
6. Youth 26% $3.90
1. Chong Tong 18% $5.50
2. Broadband 17% $6.00
3. Lord Volksraad 14% $7.00
8. Grundy's Crossing 9% $11.00

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Here are my ideas: market to 100%

Race 4 2:30 PM Robert Taranto Handicap Open
6 $4.7 You Little Beaut
4 $6.3 Modern Era
5 $8.4 Capadan
1 $8.4 My Gibreel
3 $11.2 Irish Crusader

Race 5 3:10 PM Rupert Clarke Stakes Handicap
Listed Race Apprentices Cannot Claim.
2 $3.7 Broadband
1 $4.9 Chong Tong
3 $6.6 Lord Volksraad
6 $8.8 Youth
4 $11.6 Mr. Lofty

[DR RON]

I am about 25 minutesfrom Caulfield andthere were a couple of brief showers here but they would not have affected the track condition. Mind you by looking at the sky at the moment if it did open up it could get very wet in a hurry.

[Chrome Prince]

Gday All

Here are my ideas: market to 100%

Race 4 2:30 PM Robert Taranto Handicap Open
6 $4.7 You Little Beaut
4 $6.3 Modern Era
5 $8.4 Capadan
1 $8.4 My Gibreel
3 $11.2 Irish Crusader

Race 5 3:10 PM Rupert Clarke Stakes Handicap
Listed Race Apprentices Cannot Claim.
2 $3.7 Broadband
1 $4.9 Chong Tong
3 $6.6 Lord Volksraad
6 $8.8 Youth
4 $11.6 Mr. Lofty

I now don't stand a chance in this little competition, xptdriver throws his great ratings into the pool. I have great respect for his ratings as I have used them before with excellent overlay results.

Bets of luck xptdriver, glad to have you here.

[xptdriver]

I now don't stand a chance in this little competition, xptdriver throws his great ratings into the pool. I have great respect for his ratings as I have used them before with excellent overlay results.

Bets of luck xptdriver, glad to have you here.


Gday Chrome,

thanx for the words, but of late my Melbourne form has sucked big time.. Good luck with your bets for the day

[DR RON]

Zorro seems to have done best so far with his 2nd and 3rd picks running the quinella. A couple of others got the winner but overall a fairly ordinary result.

[Sportz]

Yeah Ron, I knew this would happen!

When I did my ratings My Gibreel and Irish Crusader were rated equal 5th. I didn't want to include 6 horses, so I had to go for one and I picked My Gibreel. Then I found out that Benbow can only claim 2 kgs instead of 3 kgs now, so I really should have had Irish Crusader in my top 5. Live and learn.

[DR RON]

A better effort all round. System with the trifecta in order with his first three picks. A few others also with the tri in the first five.

[Sportz]

I'll work it all out a bit later, but after just a quick look at all the ratings, I'd say that Zorro will be just in front of Chrome Prince, System and xpt Driver.

[Chuck]

Didn't get in on time...was going to have Youth on top followed by Chong Tong though :-| Not going to be posting much this week...at holiday house!

[Sportz]

THIS WEEK'S RESULTS:

zorro did best in R4 with 50 points and system went best in R5 with 77.5 points. Here are the overall results:

zorro (50 + 52.5) 102.5 pts
system (7.5 + 77.5) 85 pts
ubetido (17.5 + 65) 82.5 pts
Dr Ron (15 + 65) 80 pts
Chrome Prince (22.5 + 50) 72.5 pts
The heavyweight (12.5 + 60) 72.5 pts
xpt driver (32.5 + 37.5) 70 pts
Duritz (12.5 + 47.5) 60 pts
Sportz (2.5 + 45) 47.5 pts
QuickFunBet (7.5 + 35) 42.5 pts
La Mer (7.5 + 35) 42.5 pts
Top Rank (2.5 + 40) 42.5 pts
Shaun (2.5 + 37.5) 40 pts
The mug (7.5 + 32.5) 40 pts

[DR RON]

how do you allot the points sportz?

[Sportz]

Little bit tricky to explain, but basically the higher up in your top 5 that you rate the winner and the placegetters the more you score. The perfect score for a race is 100 points and to do that you have to rate the horses in order 1-2-3-4-5!!!

[system]

doing good job sportz thanks for the effort mate

[Sportz]

Thanks.

Bad luck system. You scored very well in R5, but if you had kept Tuareg in and dropped Broadband instead, you would have actually picked the first 4 and scored an extra 12.5 points!!!

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Sportz :D

[system]

yes i know and today i did that all because of price broadband unders and other was huge overs.but still was only fair to get rid of 1 and from now on if i have equal rated i will change them to make it easy on you.
p.s was nearly the perfect result if protest had been upheld my pocket would have been a lot bigger.or if the 4th horse had of run 2nd.

[Duritz]

Well I did my **** everywhere today. Couldn't get a winner anywhere. I had a good go at Mr Lofty each way at 16's and knew when he missed the kick three lengths, got caught last in a slow pace and came home well for a close 5th that it was not going to be my day.

I now officially hate Caulfied again. And Belmont for that matter.

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Belmont??? I had a GREAT day betting on Belmont today. What was wrong with it? Nearly all of my bets for the Tipping Comp were in Belmont today too.

[maverick1993]

Don't worry Duritz ...i had a shocker today as well...Raw instinct got smashed on the corner and taos pleasure just wasnt good enough...
on a day where i had a stack on Gullivers travels got the tri and 1st 4 in Melbourne race 7 i still ended up down a couple of grand..
..ironic that in the last at Doomben if Dodging noses out Minassi i get the tri 5 times and the 1st 4 5 times...and $500 on the nose at $3,30...just one of those days :)......even worse that after being devasted by that last race i was a second to late to back Yubi at the Coast in the last which would of puts me $1000 ahead,,,,,,almost seems kinda funny :(

[Sportz]

Bad luck Mav.

I had Yubi AND Minassi. Good old outside barrier in the last!!! :)

[Duritz]

Whats wrong with Belmont? Plenty when you don't back a winner there! Remember, racing is very subjective.

[system]

duritz did you put mr lofty in the little black book?

[Sportz]

yes i know and today i did that all because of price. broadband unders and other was huge overs.

Yeah, so far I've had equal 5th selections in 2 of the 3 races we've rated and on both of those occasions I've gone for the one at shortest pre-post odds, whereas of course I should really have gone for the one at longest pre-post odds. Would have done very well if I had.

[zorro]

Guess who's the clown who didn't have a cent on Irish Crusader at the massive overs - BUGGER!

[system]

it was overs with me to i rated it $10.90 but was about 6th or 7th in order(irish crusader)

[Duritz]

System yes Mr.Lofty RETAINS his spot in the little black book - just wish Moody would take him to Flemington..... His run 1st up was indicative that he is in top form, just needs the right race(s)!

[xptdriver]

Gday All,

I liked the races you blokes put up to rate. All I did all day Saturday was box the 5 in quinellas ( no one will convince me that it is not the best value bet going around) in the 2 races we rated 10 times... It was a nice result.. bring on more of these races :) I can go bad for the next few weeks and still be travelling ok... it was fun

[Sportz]

Thanks and well done xpt. :)

Have you ever had a bet on the 'Any 2' or 'Duet' or can't you take those on your TAB??? I've had a lot of fun with the Any 2 since Unitab brought it in.

[xptdriver]

Gday Sportz,

I was at the track at Caloundra a few weeks ago ( SS Coast) and I think that was the bet I was playing around with, The NSW TAB doesn't have that bet type, they tried something similar in weird sort of way with the spinner.. There was no input from the punter with the spinner bet, unlike the duet..


I love quinelllas they are my favourite multi bet form. I reckon they are always fair value...

[system]

i think the any 2 pays way unders compared to quin

[Chrome Prince]

Personally I like running doubles, they seem to offer the best value with overlay selections.

16.80(irish crusader) x 4.20(youth) RD=$72.80

Could easily have got it in a 5x5 bet, outlay $25.00 return $72.80

[xptdriver]

Personally I like running doubles, they seem to offer the best value with overlay selections.

16.80(irish crusader) x 4.20(youth) RD=$72.80

Could easily have got it in a 5x5 bet, outlay $25.00 return $72.80


Gday Chrome...

I agree with ya there, when I have been in VIC I have taken em and they are a great bet... I usally go 4*4.. Unfortunatley.. we don't have em here,, but that may change... I know people say ya can have all ups, but i like the running dubs better..

[Sportz]

i think the any 2 pays way unders compared to quin

But there's 3 divs instead of 1 and they don't have to come 1st and 2nd. They can come 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd. I got an Any 2 yesterday that paid $156. If I had taken a quinella I would have got nothing because the horses finished 1st and 3rd.

[marcus25]

Personally I like running doubles, they seem to offer the best value with overlay selections.

16.80(irish crusader) x 4.20(youth) RD=$72.80

Could easily have got it in a 5x5 bet, outlay $25.00 return $72.80
Hi!
If you are betting on running doubles it means you are sure your first horse is going to win?! Am I right?
If so then if you would have put $25.00 on your first leg and as it happens it won, you would have got $420.00 back
and no worries about the second selection coming up!
Did you ever consider that???
Cheers!

[Shaun]

Sportz is talking about having 5 selections in the first leg with 5 selections in the second....cost $25 not just an allup on 2 horses

[Sportz]

Hey, wasn't me. It was someone else's idea!

[Shaun]

Sorry about that...I think it was Chrome....any ways just clearing up what they were actualy betting

[DR RON]

Sportz, How about races 5 and 7 at Sandown for this weeks challenge??

[Sportz]

Yep. That's what I was thinking. There's a couple of good races at Rosehill and one at Eagle Farm, but I think those two at Sandown are the races best suited for the challenge this week.

[Sportz]

I think we'll simply continue on with this thread instead of starting a new one.

So here are this week's races to rate. Remember, give us your top 5 ratings in order. Price the whole field to 100% then list just the prices for your top 5.

SANDOWN R5 CITY OF GREATER DANDENONG CUP 1300 M ($50000)
1 RED HANNIGAN Lee Freedman D Oliver 3 58
2 AIR COOLED (NZ) Jamie Edwards D Nikolic 5 55
3 STAR OF ST. COVET Bevan Laming R Waymouth (a2) 6 54
4 SURE BET Mark Minervini Dale Smith 10 53.5
5 GENERALISSIMO Jim Conlan K McEvoy 7 53
6 TWISTED TIMES Andrew Noblet N Ryan (a0) 4 52.5
7 COMEDY SNIP Richard Freyer B Shinn (a0) 11 52
8 ROMANTIC LOVER John Ledger M Pegus 8 52
9 UNCLE WILLY Adrian Osborne J Benbow (a2) 2 52
10 TASKWIN Richard Freyer D Yendall 1 52
11 RUSTY GOLD Ken Newman B Cross (a1.5) 9 52

SANDOWN R7-4.50 GREATER DANDENONG CHAMBER OF COMMERCE HCP 1600 M ($50000)
1 GUNNAMATTA Rodney Douglas D Oliver 6 58
2 UNDER THE BRIDGE Tony Vasil K G Sanderson 3 58
3 COOL TRENT Robert Smerdon R Maloney (a3) 2 56.5
4 PERSONAL IMAGE Richard Freyer D Nikolic 11 54.5
5 REEF BEACH Lee Freedman N Ryan (a0) 9 54.5
6 CLOSE ENCOUNTER Tony Vasil G Childs 7 53.5
7 SHADY BRADY Mick Price S Baster 4 53.5
8 TRANSFERRAL Andrew Noblet K McEvoy 5 53.5
9 UNCLE SPEED Adrian Osborne B Cross (a1.5) 8 52.5
10 COGNITO Lee Hope B Shinn (a0) 10 52.5
11 DELWAY Peter G Moody L Nolen 12 52.5
12 HASSLE John Hawkes D Gauci 1 52.5

Good luck! :)

[Shaun]

SANDOWN R5 CITY OF GREATER DANDENONG CUP 1300 M ($50000)
6 Twisted Times (4) $3.11
1 Red Hannigan (3) $3.96
2 Air Cooled (NZ) (5) $9.76
9 Uncle Willy (2) $13.60
4 Sure Bet (10) $13.62

SANDOWN R7-4.50 GREATER DANDENONG CHAMBER OF COMMERCE HCP 1600 M ($50000)
2 Under the Bridge (3) $4.94
3 Cool Trent (2) $5.59
11 Delway (12) $6.99
9 Uncle Speed (8) $10.70
7 Shady Brady (4) $11.12

[ubetido]

SANDOWN RACE 5

6 TWISTED TIMES........$2.9
1 RED HANNIGAN..........$4.2
2 AIR COOLED.............$11.2
5 GENERALISSIMO........$13.7
3 STAR OF ST COVET....$14.4


SANDOWN RACE 7
2 UNDER THE BRIDGE......$3.8
11 DELWAY...................$4.5
4 PERSONAL IMAGE.......$13.0
6 CLOSE ENCOUNTER......$14.0
5 REEF BEACH................$18.6

[Heavyweight]

Sportz,

Just a query on the allotment of points: do you take the actual rating values into account? For instance, Shaun and Ubetido each have 67% in the same top 3 for Sandown R5. If I come in with the same top 3 in the same order, but have them priced at say $3.50, $4.50 and $12 (total 59%) and we get the trifecta, do I get a lower score than they do? As the man doing the work, it's your prerogative; I'm just interested.

Cheers,

H.

[Shaun]

The way my ratings have been going lately i would be backing some thing else...lol

[Chrome Prince]

SANDOWN RACE 5

6 TWISTED TIMES $3.49
8 ROMANTIC LOVER $5.09
2 AIR COOLED $5.13
1 RED HANNIGAN $7.86
7 COMEDY SNIP $14.17

SANDOWN RACE 7

3 COOL TRENT $1.90
7 SHADY BRADY $8.67
8 TRANSFERRAL $11.41
1 GUNNAMATTA $13.55
2 UNDER THE BRIDGE $17.30

[Sportz]

Just a query on the allotment of points: do you take the actual rating values into account? For instance, Shaun and Ubetido each have 67% in the same top 3 for Sandown R5. If I come in with the same top 3 in the same order, but have them priced at say $3.50, $4.50 and $12 (total 59%) and we get the trifecta, do I get a lower score than they do?

No. The scores are only worked out on the order you rate the horses, not their prices. The basic reason that we get everyone to post prices for their ratings is so that everyone can make a good comparison between different people's ratings. You see, some people work out their ratings in kgs, some in lengths, some in points, so doing it this way is simply the best way of letting people make a comparison between the various sets of ratings. Looks better too. :)

[Rabbit]

Twisted Times $3.5
Air Cooled $5.20
Star of St Covet $7.20
Red Hannigan $8.30


Shady Brady $4.2
Personal Image $4.5
Cool Trent $4.9
Hassle$8.00

[rabbitz]

Twisted Times $3.5
Air Cooled $5.20
Star of St Covet $7.20
Red Hannigan $8.30


Shady Brady $4.2
Personal Image $4.5
Cool Trent $4.9
Hassle$8.00
Hey whats going on Rabbit
Am I related to you,fancy turning up here after all these years
Cheers

[xptdriver]

Yep. That's what I was thinking. There's a couple of good races at Rosehill and one at Eagle Farm, but I think those two at Sandown are the races best suited for the challenge this week.

Gday Sportz,

Just out of curiostity, why are these two fairly ordinary Open Handicaps, (Race 7 being restricted) the suitable races, not complaining, just curious as to why you would pick these 2 Races.

[xptdriver]

Gdsay All

here are my ideas for the 2 races... I wont be able to adjust em for scr I will be at work all day...

Race 5 3:30 PM City Of Greater Dandenong Cup Handicap Open
1 $2.4 Red Hannigan
6 $5.7 Twisted Times
3 $9.9 Star Of St. Covet
5 $13.2 Generalissimo
2 $18.3 Air Cooled

Race 7 4:50 PM Greater Dandenong C.O.C. Handicap 4yo+ Open
2 $3.7 Under The Bridge
5 $6.6 Reef Beach
7 $8.8 Shady Brady
3 $8.8 Cool Trent
6 $11.5 Close Encounter

[Sportz]

XPT,

These are the general rules we're going by:
Preferably Handicap races for open or older horses, preferably fields of about 10 -14 and preferably between 1200 & 2000m. They're not hard and fast rules, but that's generally what we'll be rating. Dr Ron also had a preference for Melbourne races when he came up with the idea, so I'll give a slight preference to Melbourne too when choosing the races each week. We will definitely be rating Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide down the track though.

Oh, another thing I like to look for is simplicity for people doing the ratings. For example, some might have thought that we could have chosen the Satellite Stks at Rosehill. One of the reasons I didn't was because there were two horses in the race which were dual acceptors and this could lead to confusion with scratchings etc. Same thing happened last week when I didn't choose R7 in Melbourne. That was because one of the main chances in the race was an emergency. It was duly scratched and I'm sure many would have had it high up in their ratings had we used that race.

[DR RON]

Sportz, should we give thought to letting others choose races in the future???

Whille keeping them within the general framework.

[Sportz]

Well, the fields come out on Thursday each week, so we can certainly have a bit of a discussion on here each Thursday as to what races to pick.

[DR RON]

Race 5

1. Red Hannigan 2.75
5. Generalissimo 7.30
3 Star of St Covet 8.40
4. Sure Bet 8.40
2. Air Cololed 13.90

Race 7

3. Cool Trent 1.85
12. Hassle 6.75
7. Shady Brady 11.10
6. Close Encounter 15.90
9. Uncle Speed 15.90

[xptdriver]

[QUOTE=Sportz]XPT,

These are the general rules we're going by: (snipped)

Thanks for the reply Sportz..

[Rabbit]

Rabbitz if you live on Sharapova Island I hope we are related!!!

[Sportz]

Rabbit, do you want to add a horse to your ratings of both races? We're listing our top 5 horses and that extra horse gives you an extra chance of nabbing the winner and scoring points.

[Duritz]

OK here's mine for those two races. My prices are to 80% because that's how I frame them for my own punting, if you want me to re-post them to 100% I can, just haven't worried about it because the comp doesn't use our prices anyhow.

race 5 3.30
seln mgn price name
2 0.0 $4.1 AIR COOLED
1 0.1 $4.3 RED HANNIGAN
8 1.4 $9.2 ROMANTIC LOVER
5 1.5 $10.5 GENERALISSIMO
4 2.1 $17.8 SURE BET
9 3.0 $51.4 UNCLE WILLY
6 3.0 $52.6 TWISTED TIMES
3 3.2 $68.6 STAR OF ST COVET

race 7 4.50
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $6.6 REEF BEACH
6 0.2 $7.3 CLOSE ENCOUNTER
7 0.9 $11.1 SHADY BRADY
8 0.9 $11.2 TRANSFERRAL
12 1.0 $11.3 HASSLE
2 1.0 $11.7 UNDER THE BRI-NZ
4 1.4 $15.0 PERSONAL IMAGE
11 1.9 $23.3 DELWAY

Duritz.

[Duritz]

LOL sorry I just realised that's my top 8... kindly ignore the bottom 3 in each of the two races.....

[Sportz]

My prices are to 80% because that's how I frame them for my own punting, if you want me to re-post them to 100% I can, just haven't worried about it because the comp doesn't use our prices anyhow.

Nah, that's okay. It gives us an idea anyway.

[Filante]

CAULFIELD RACE 5

1. Red Hannigan $3.25
2. Air Cooled $4.5
6. Twisted Times $5.7
3. Star of St Covet $7.3

CAULFIELD RACE 7

3. Cool Trent $3.4
4. Personal Image $5.2
12. Hassle $8.9
7. Shady Brady $9.6

[Top Rank]

God give them strength for an out of form punter.

Race 5
Red Hannigan - $2.20
Air Cooled - $5.50
Twisted Times - $5.50
Sure Bet - $9.00
Generalissimo - $16.00

Race 7
Cool Trent - $2.10
Under The Bridge - $5.50
Reef Beach - $8.50
Transferral - $8.50
Hassle - $15.00

Good punting

[Sportz]

Filante,

Feel free to add a 5th horse in each race. :)

[QuickFunBet]

Sandown Hillside Race 5

6. Twisted Times $3.50
5. Generalissimo $7.00
1. Red Hannigan $8.00
2. Air Cooled $9.00
7. Comedy Snip $11.00

Sandown Hillside Race 7

4. Personal Image $2.60
7. Shady Brady $8.50
11. Delway $10.00
6. Close Encounter $11.00
2. Under The Bridge $12.00

Thanks,
QFB

[the mug]

One week down and bringing up the rear, i understand the anticipation surrounding my tips, so here they are.... steer clear of them..!?

melb r5
1- Red Hannigan 4.50
2- Air cooled 5.00
5- Generalissimo 8.20
3- Star of St.Covet 9.00
6- Twisted Times 11.00

melb r7
8- Transferral 2.25
4- Personal Image 4.30
2- Under the Bridge 15.00
3- Cool Trent 15.00
7- Shady Brady 20.00

Good luck all
cheers

[zorro]

Race 5
1 0192-Red Hannigan (3) 2.50
6 1x11-Twisted Times (4) 4.60
2 4x21-Air Cooled (NZ) (5) 8.30
9 2142-Uncle Willy (2) 10.70
4 326-Sure Bet (10) 10.70

Race 7
8 0x03-Transferral (5) 4.40
3 2211-Cool Trent (2) 4.40
2 7x08-Under the Bridge (3) 5.30
7 2282-Shady Brady (4) 7.50
5 60x8-Reef Beach (9) 9.30

[Heavyweight]

MR5

6. Twisted Times $3.75
5. Generalissimo $6.50
2. Air Cooled $7.00
1. Red Hannigan $8.00
7. Comedy Snip $9.00

8. Romantic Lover ($13) if there's a scratching.

MR7

4. Personal Image $3.00
8. Transferral $4.50
2. Under the Bridge $11.00
7. Shady Brady $12.00
12. Hassle $12.00

10. Cognito ($13) if there's a late scratching.

There seem to be wildly diverging opinions on Cool Trent...

[Sportz]

Some weird odds with mine this week, but that's just what happens with my pricing method when the top rated horses are a fair margin in front of the others. Believe me, I certainly don't think Under The Bridge's true odds are $58!!! Anyway, it's really the order of the ratings that we're concentrating on, not so much the price.

R5:
01 RED HANNIGAN $2.20
06 TWISTED TIMES $3.10
02 AIR COOLED $6.50
04 SURE BET $27.00
03 STAR OF ST. COVET $72.00

R7:
03 COOL TRENT $2.30
07 SHADY BRADY $2.70
12 HASSLE $7.00
09 UNCLE SPEED $29.00
02 UNDER THE BRIDGE $58.00

[moeee]

LOL sorry I just realised that's my top 8... kindly ignore the bottom 3 in each of the two races.....

I would have thought you should be sorry for not including COOL TRENT in your ratings!
What do you know Duritz,that other predictors don't?

[system]

g,day guys

mr5
no6 twisted times $3.1
n02 air cooled $4.3
no7 comedy snip $6.7
no3 star of st covet $7.8
no4 sure bet $7.8

mr7
no11 delway $4.9
no2 under the bridge $6.3
no7 shady brady $7.1
no5 reef beach $9.1
no12 hassle $9.1

[La Mer]

Race 5:
Twisted Times $3.30
Red Hannigan $5.80
Air Cooled $7.80
Star Of St. Covet $9.00
Romantic Lover $11.50

Race 7:
Cool Trent $4.50
Shady Brady $4.50
Personal Image $6.80
Reef Beach $9.00
Under The Bridge $10.50

[Jimmy]

G'day Guys

M5 City Of Greater Dandenong Cup.
1. Red Hannigan $3.10
2. Air Cooled $4.70
6. Twisted Times $7.50
3. Star of St. Covet $8.00
8. Romantic Lover $10.00


M7 Greater Dandenong C.O.C. Hcp.
12. Hassle $4.00
2. Under The Bridge $4.50
3. Cool Trent $5.30
7. Shady Brady $6.50
9. Uncle Speed $10.00

Good Luck

[Sportz]

Well, not bad today. The winner, quinella and trifecta were all pretty popular in Race 5, and Chrome Prince even managed the first 4 in that race. Race 7 proved a bit harder but a few people were around the mark. La Mer got the trifecta there. A few people had both winners rated on top.

I'll tally up the scores and post them later.

[La Mer]

Well, not bad today. The winner, quinella and trifecta were all pretty popular in Race 5, and Chrome Prince even managed the first 4 in that race. Race 7 proved a bit harder but a few people were around the mark. La Mer got the trifecta there. A few people had both winners rated on top.

Sportz, I know you tally them all up later, but I actually got both First Fours in my selections. Well done to just about everyone today, as I think most would have scored pretty well.

[Shaun]

La mer..mind if i ask what you are using...weight ratings speed ratings or some thing different

[Sportz]

La Mer,

Wow. Did you? I didn't see that. Well, I'm sure you'll be well on top for this week then. I'm just starting to work them out now.

In R7 I had Reef Beach rated equal 5th but decided to go for the other one Under The Bridge instead. That's 3 weeks in a row that I've had equal 5th ratings and each time I've gone for the shorter priced runner. Each time it's cost me. You think I'd learn. :o

[La Mer]

La mer..mind if i ask what you are using...weight ratings speed ratings or some thing different

Not weight ratings Shaun, I gave them away a long time ago. My ratings are based on a combination of impact values, (a bit like neurals to a degree) and in-running positions coupled with the assessed early pace (fast, slow or even)
and which horses are likely to be advantaged/disadvantaged.

Class, form, fitness and pace are the four most important factors taken into consideration.

[Sportz]

Okay, here's this week's results.

La Mer killed us getting equal top score in R5 and clear top score in R7. Well done La Mer!

La Mer (92.5 + 82.5) 175 pts
Top Rank (80 + 55) 135 pts
Filante (77.5 + 52.5) 130 pts
zorro (80 + 47.5) 127.5 pts
Jimmy (92.5 + 32.5) 125 pts
Sportz (80 + 42.5) 122.5 pts
Chrome Prince (75 + 40) 115 pts
xpt driver (67.5 + 42.5) 110 pts
Shaun (75 + 35) 105 pts
The mug (65 + 37.5) 102.5 pts
Rabbit (55 + 42.5) 97.5 pts
ubetido (72.5 + 15) 87.5 pts
Dr Ron (42.5 + 42.5) 85 pts
QuickFunBet (55 + 15) 70 pts
The heavyweight (50 + 17.5) 67.5 pts
Duritz (47.5 + 17.5) 65 pts
system (22.5 + 17.5) 40 pts

And here's the overall situation after 2 weeks.
(Filante, Jimmy and Rabbit just joined in this week)

zorro 230 pts
La Mer 217.5 pts
Chrome Prince 187.5 pts
xpt driver 180 pts
Top Rank 177.5 pts
Sportz 170 pts
ubetido 170 pts
Dr Ron 165 pts
Shaun 150 pts
The mug 142.5 pts
The heavyweight 140 pts
system 137.5 pts
Filante 130 pts
Duritz 125 pts
Jimmy 125 pts
QuickFunBet 112.5 pts
Rabbit 97.5 pts

[Chrome Prince]

Well done today La Mer and well done Zorro on leading after two weeks.

I'm amazed at my ranking as my ratings are very raw and have not been enhanced to any degree.

Great competition, thanks for keeping tabs Sportz.

[Jimmy]

Thanks Sportz for the tally,

See if I can catch up, disappointing effort in the second rated race, thought the Gauch was weaving through the field in race 7 to give a sight but probably too far back.

[zorro]

Good work guys - if we keep this up we're all have to move to the Gold Coast and set up Tipping Businesses. Legitimate of course and it will only cost $10,000 for the first 3 months!

[moeee]

Perused through the average ratings yesterday without placing a bet,but thought the consensus was that Twisted Rhythm was a slight over and Cool Trent was big overs.
Yep,next week I'll take faith in you guys and see if you can get me where I can't get on my own.

[DR RON]

Yeah, thanks for keeping score sportz, I was happy getting the two winners on top but as for the placegetters, I will have to work a bit harder in future. I used the Tassie tote ratings this week. i thought cool trent was a certainty.

[Top Rank]

I must add my thanks to sportz for keeping score. I won't be getting carried away with my sudden climb up the ladder, excellent overs on Cool Trent though.


Good Punting.

[Sportz]

Yeah, I couldn't believe the price on Cool Trent. I wasn't expecting any more than about $3.

[Duritz]

In answer to an earlier query re Cool Trent out of my ratings - I f****d up.

[Sportz]

What do you guys reckon? Should we have another go at doing the ratings on Wednesday? To be fair to everyone, I guess we probably shouldn't make it count towards the overall situation though.

[Filante]

Yeah, I couldn't believe the price on Cool Trent. I wasn't expecting any more than about $3.

Sportz,

I think the reason for the nice price on Cool Trent was what the bookmakers did with Shady Brady. Shady Brady was only just beaten in track record time last start - most of us seemed to ignore this and simply rate him in a standard weight rating way - as too did the unofficial/ non-live newspaper price assessors (which had him around $7). When live markets came on in the morning, however, Shady Brady was around $3.5 and Cool Trent was around $4.5 (with $5.5 or $6 being available during betting).

To my mind this is a classic example of what punting is about - a difference of opinion that creates value in the market. This time we got it right and the bookmakers got it wrong.

Cheers,

F

[Duritz]

I'd be up for the Wednesday comp Sportz - if only to improve upon my dismal efforts in the chosen races so far.....

As to Shady Brady, I was potting him because I think he's got a little bit of cat in him, finds ways to get beat, and those close seconds he had were REALLY tough runs, he was ready to flop and be over the top in his prep. I thought he was a great lay, but I STUFFED UP completely with Cool Trent so ended up losing on the race anyway.

[Shaun]

yeah i would be in for wednesday...just for fun i think

[Chrome Prince]

I'd be keen for Wednesday too.

[Sportz]

I've had a look at Wednesday's races and it looks a bit tricky to find suitable races using the criteria we've been using so far. The standard of racing isn't as high as I was expecting for Australia Day. I think the following races would be okay to use: Caulfield R5, R6, R7 & R8, Randwick R7 & R8, Doomben R6 & R7.

Although Caulfield R5 & R7 are the highest standard races, I personally think these two races would be best to use for our ratings, but I'm open to suggestions. What do you think?

CAULFIELD RACE 6 SILVAN PLATE 1400 M ($50000)
1 HARDY STEELE Lee Hope R Maloney (a3) 15 57.5
2 FIRETAINE (NZ) Stuart Webb R Waymouth (a2) 13 56.5
3 LORD OF THE PINES Tony Noonan S Baster 14 56.5
4 MR. MAGOO James Riley D Oliver 4 56.5
5 CALL ME SYD Nevin Eades Steven King 8 56
6 LIMITED IMPULSE Danny J Bougoure C D Symons (a1.5) 3 55.5
7 CANNYOPRA Andrew Noblet Ms Michelle Payne (a1.5) 1 54
8 PEACE RULER Jim Marconi N Ryan (a0) 9 53
9 SHOW 'EM POWER Stuart Webb B Park 2 53
10 FLYING ED Grant Dalziel B Shinn (a0) 5 52.5
11 JAR JAR BINKS Lee Hope Dale Smith 7 52.5
12 GIFTED GROUND Darral Edwards M Pegus 10 52
13 MIDNIGHT STORM Robert Cerchi R Wheeler 11 52
14 GRAND LEGEND Peter Sutherland J Benbow (a2) 12 52
15 WHITHER THOU GOEST Steve Cunningham B Cross (a1.5) 6 52

CAULFIELD RACE 8 CITY OF GLEN EIRA HANDICAP 2000 M ($50000)
1 BONDY Tony Vasil K G Sanderson 9 58
2 CAPADAN (NZ) Ross McDonald D Nikolic 1 56
3 EVASION John Hawkes D Gauci 7 55
4 YOU LITTLE BEAUT Tony McEvoy D Oliver 8 54.5
5 LIQUID LUNCH Chris Hyland R Booth 6 53
6 MANY ARE CALLED Geoff Daffy N Wilson 2 53
7 COMMAND 'N CONQUER (NZ) Chris Wood N Ryan (a0) 3 52.5
8 NO HIGH NO SONG Greg Eurell P Mertens 10 52
9 PARTY PIE Gerard Moloney B Shinn (a0) 5 52
10 SPECIAL SCENE Dan O'Sullivan B Cross (a1.5) 4 52

I think we should just do this Wednesday's races for an interest though and they won't count towards our overall score.

[Shaun]

CAULFIELD RACE 6 SILVAN PLATE 1400 M ($50000)
4 Mr. Magoo (4) $6.4
8 Peace Ruler (9) $7.65
1 Hardy Steele (15) $8.56
11 Jar Jar Binks (7) $10.78
14 Grand Legend (12) $11.09

CAULFIELD RACE 8 CITY OF GLEN EIRA HANDICAP 2000 M ($50000)
9 Party Pie (5) $4.71
3 Evasion (7) $4.82
1 Bondy (9) $6.02
7 Command 'n Conquer (NZ) (3) $7.54
2 Capadan (NZ) (1) $9.48

[Chrome Prince]

CAULFIELD Race 6

1. HARDY STEELE $6.74
8. PEACE RULER $7.44
9. SHOW 'EM POWER $7.60
3. LORD OF THE PINES $8.91
4. MR. MAGOO $12.56

CAULFIELD Race 8

1. BONDY $2.49
3. EVASION $4.10
5. LIQUID LUNCH $9.77
7. COMMAND 'N CONQUER $9.81
2. CAPADAN $13.61

As it's a public holiday meeting - who wants to vote to have these results included in the tally?

[Sportz]

Chrome, we could certainly do that. But I was just worried that some people may not check in here until Friday or something and they miss out.

[Filante]

Sportz,

I've got an idea which is somewhat self-interested.

How about making Wednesday like a supplementary, after which you give people their best two scores out of the three meetings?

Cheers,

F

[xptdriver]

[QUOTE=Chrome Prince]CAULFIELD Race 6

1. HARDY STEELE $6.74
8. PEACE RULER $7.44
9. SHOW 'EM POWER $7.60
3. LORD OF THE PINES $8.91


Gday Chrome,

I agree wwith your thoughts up to LOP... I am having a problem putting a line thru him and am guessing about him... how far back have you gone to come up with a reliable rating for him.... curious is all...

[Duritz]

Lets include wednesday

[Chrome Prince]

Gday Chrome,

I agree wwith your thoughts up to LOP... I am having a problem putting a line thru him and am guessing about him... how far back have you gone to come up with a reliable rating for him.... curious is all...


Hi xptdriver,

My ratings are basically calculated on overall class and last start performance.
I do not look at rating a horse on it's best run, as that can be long ago and have no relevance to today. The one thing that is not factored in, is a long break or first-up into the equation. He is basically thrown in as a first four chance, I think the other first three rated horses are lengths ahead - but you never really know.

[La Mer]

CAULFIELD RACE 6 SILVAN PLATE 1400 M ($50000)
5 CALL ME SYD Nevin Eades Steven King 8 56 .

Scratched already.

[Sportz]

Thanks for that.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

time to chuck my 2 bobs worth in :

Race 6 Caulfield
1 $5.5 HARDY STEELE
8 $7.3 PEACE RULER
9 $7.3 SHOW 'EM POWER
6 $9.8 LIMITED IMPULSE
7 $13.1 CANNYOPRA

Race 8 Caulfield
3 $4.2 EVASION
9 $5.6 PARTY PIE
1 $7.5 BONDY
2 $7.5 CAPADAN
7 $10.0 COMMAND 'N CONQUER

[Top Rank]

Hi Guys

Give them strength.

RAce 6
Hardy Steele - $3.20
Mr Magoo - $6.00
Jar Jar Binks - $8.00
Limited Impulse - $13.00
Cannyopra - $13.00


Race 8
Evasion - $3.20
Capadan - $4.70
Party Pie - $6.70
Command N Conquer - $6.90
Bondy - $15.60

Good Punting

[Jimmy]

Hey guys

Race 6 Silvan Plte.
4. Mr Magoo $3.70
1. Hardy Steele $4.20
8. Peace Ruler $7.50
7. Cannyopra $8.20
11. Jar Jar Binks $10.00

Race 8 City Of Glen Eira Hcp.
2. Capadan $4.50
3. Evasion $5.10
4. You Little Beaut $8.00
1. Bondy $8.50
9. Party Pie $9.20

[maverick1993]

1 Hardy steele 3.00
11 Jar Jar Binks 5.50
6 Limited Impulse 5.50
4 Mr Magoo 7.50
10 Flying Ed 10.00

3 Evasion 2.50
9 Party Pie 4.50
2 Capadan 7.00
4 You Little Beut 8.00
1 Bondy 10.00

[Sportz]

Final Scratchings are:

RACE 6
5 Call Me Syd
12 Gifted Ground
13 Midnight Storm
14 Grand Legend

RACE 8
7 Command 'N Conquer
10 Special Scene

If any of you want to make changes to your ratings to account for scratchings, please feel free.

[Filante]

RACE 6

4. Mr Magoo $3.6
1. Hardy Steele $4.0
7. Cannyopra $6.2
9. Show 'em Power $6.5
8. Peace Ruler $7.5


RACE 8

3. Evasion $3.1
9. Party Pie $3.4
2. Capadan $7.0
4. You Little Beaut $8.0
6. Many Are Called $10.0

[La Mer]

Race 6:
Hardy Steele $4.30
Mr. Magoo $5.20
Peace Ruler $6.50
Lord Of The Pines $8.60
Jar Jar Binks $11.50

Race 8
Evasion $3.00
Capadan $5.20
Party Pie $7.00
Many Are Called $9.40
Liquid Lunch $12.60

[QuickFunBet]

Caulfield Race 6
1. Hardy Steele $5.80
7. Cannyopra $6.50
6. Limited Impulse $7.00
2. Firetaine $8.00
4. Mr. Magoo $8.40

Caulfield Race 8
6. Many Are Called $4.40
9. Party Pie $4.90
8. No High No Song $8.00
4. You Little Beaut $9.90
1. Bondy $11.00

Thanks

[Shaun]

Selections Updated
CAULFIELD RACE 6 SILVAN PLATE 1400 M ($50000)
4 Mr. Magoo (4) $4.98
8 Peace Ruler (9) $5.94
1 Hardy Steele (15) $6.65
11 Jar Jar Binks (7) $8.37
2 Firetaine (NZ) (13) $9.17

CAULFIELD RACE 8 CITY OF GLEN EIRA HANDICAP 2000 M ($50000)
9 Party Pie (5) $3.83
3 Evasion (7) $3.91
1 Bondy (9) $4.89
2 Capadan (NZ) (1) $7.70
6 Many Are Called (2) $10.27

[Top Rank]

Selections updated after scratchings


Race 6
Hardy Steele - $3.00
Mr Magoo - $5.50
Jar Jar Binks - $7.50
Limited Impulse - $12.00
Cannyopra - $12.00

Race 8
Evasion - $2.90
Capadan - $3.30
Party Pie - $5.20
Bondy - $15.00
Many Are Called - $26.00

Good Punting

[Sportz]

Not confident today. Lord Of The Pines was VERY tricky. I didn't know what to do with him. I probably should have just left him out altogether. Anyway, here's what I've got.

Race 6
01 HARDY STEELE $2.60
08 PEACE RULER $ 3.70
07 CANNYOPRA $5.20
04 MR. MAGOO $21.70
03 LORD OF THE PINES $26.00

Race 7
09 PARTY PIE $2.60
03 EVASION $5.30
04 YOU LITTLE BEAUT $6.00
02 CAPADAN $6.90
08 NO HIGH NO SONG $13.20

[Duritz]

Here's mine. I think if Hardy Steele is short, take it on. Drawing wide at Caulfield is the WORST place to draw wide, and if it is like it was this meeting every other year (ie leaders advantage) then the horse has none.

Of course, I could be wrong. Often am. Here's two races in which I'll probably be wrong.

Again my prices are to 80% because we're still not using prices for the calculations, is that right?

Duritz.

race 6 3.50
seln mgn price name
7 0.0 $3.1 CANNYOPRA
8 2.0 $12.3 PEACE RULER
1 2.0 $12.5 HARDY STEELE
6 2.1 $14.0 LIMITED IMPULSE
4 2.3 $16.3 MR MAGOO

race 8 5.10
seln mgn price name
3 0.0 $3.4 EVASION
4 1.5 $8.1 YOU LITTLE BEAUT
2 1.5 $8.3 CAPADAN
8 1.7 $9.5 NO HIGH NO SONG
9 1.7 $9.6 PARTY PIE

[Sportz]

Yeah, that's right.

I'm a bit worried. I've only got Mr Magoo 4th pick and it seems to be the hot tip today. Don't think Hardy Steele will be short for that very reason.

[the mug]

r6
4- mr.magoo $2.00
1- hardy steele $3.00
11-Jar Jar binks $16.00
6- Limited Impulse $40.00
7- Cannyopra $60.00

Top 2 came up very short here, meaning the bottom two selections have come up with very unrealistic prices...


r8
1- Bondy $3.50
2- Capadan $4.50
3- Evasion $4.50
4- You little Beaut $5.50
6- many are called.. $25.00

cheers

[Duritz]

It's a weird race. Mr Magoo is a chance at his best, but was in market last start and was disappointing. I have always been of the opinion that he is best at Flemington where he can wind up. I think Jar Jar Binks is no good and doesn't go the Melbourne way, I have Cannyopera very short and it will be my biggest go of the day. I am very keen on it. I don't think it's definitely going to win, but I am very keen on the value it will be. I think my price is right, I think if this race were run 100 times today it would win 35 or so, and so the odds it will be will be great overs. Hardy Steele is strong but I think it has a tough ask today from the gate with the possibilty of a leaders track or a front runners track with the rail true.

Duritz.

[Heavyweight]

MR6

1. Hardy Steele $4.00
4. Mr. Magoo $4.60
7. Cannyopra $7.00
11. Jar Jar Binks $13.00
8. Peace Ruler $16.00

MR8

9. Party Pie $3.00
2. Capadan $3.50
5. Liquid Lunch $10.00
6. Many Are Called $11.00
4. You Little Beaut $17.00

Beats the hell out of working...

[Sportz]

I think if this race were run 100 times today it would win 35 or so, and so the odds it will be will be great overs.

I think if this race were run 100 times today, the horses would all be just a tad tired. :D

[ubetido]

CAUFIELD RACE 6

1 HARDY STEELE 3.9
4 MR MAGOO 4.4
11JAR JAR BINKS 9.4
3 LORD OF THE PINES 11.9
8 PEACE RULER 13.0

CAUFIELD RACE 8

9 PARTY PIE 2.6
3 EVASION 5.2
1 BONDY 8.9
2 CAPADAN 9.9
6 MANY ARE CALLED 12.9

[Sportz]

Yeah well, I thought I must have done something wrong only having Mr Magoo 4th pick. It was such a big tip today.

[Sportz]

Okay, as this was a last minute sort of thing and to be fair to a few people who missed out, I reckon we should do what Filante suggested and count today's races as supplementary races, and we can simply count our two best scores out of the three so far.

Here's today's results:
Sportz (55 + 92.5) 147.5 pts
Filante (67.5 + 62.5) 130 pts
Jimmy (65 + 50) 115 pts
Duritz (47.5 + 65) 112.5 pts
Heavyweight (62.5 + 47.5) 110 pts
Shaun (45 + 47.5) 92.5 pts
Maverick1993 (27.5 + 60) 87.5 pts
ubetido (35 + 47.5) 82.5 pts
QuickFunBet (32.5 + 47.5) 80 pts
Top Rank 42.5 + 37.5) 80 pts
La Mer (40 + 37.5) 77.5 pts
The Mug (47.5 + 17.5) 65 pts
xpt driver (17.5 + 40) 57.5 pts
Chrome Prince (25 + 10) 35 pts

After tallying up our two best scores, here's the leaderboard:
Sportz 270 pts
Filante 260 pts
La Mer 252.5 pts
Jimmy 240 pts
zorro 230 pts
Top Rank 215 pts
Shaun 202.5 pts
Chrome Prince 187.5 pts
The heavyweight 182.5 pts
xpt driver 180 pts
Duritz 177.5 pts
ubetido 170 pts
The mug 167.5 pts
Dr Ron 165 pts
QuickFunBet 150 pts
system 137.5 pts
Rabbit 97.5 pts
Maverick1993 87.5 pts

I feel a bit guilty being up on top, but never mind. I'm sure I won't stay there for long.

[Duritz]

don't feel guilty - just announce that you forgot to mention there's a $100 entry fee, winner take all!

[Filante]

don't feel guilty - just announce that you forgot to mention there's a $100 entry fee, winner take all!

Sportz should take 10% just for running this - it's a massive amount of work. Thanks Sportz.

[Duritz]

Yeah agreed.

Had an idea by the way, if anyone feels like taking it up - when all the selections are in, how about coming up with a consensus figure from all of our efforts, say 5 points for top pick, 4 for second etc, to get a paper poll of sorts. It'd sort of show us how we'd go if we were the Borg...

If someone has a pricing model they could apply to this kind of thing that could be interesting too.

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Yeah, that's what I was thinking of too. I think we'd go pretty close.

[Sportz]

Here you go Duritz.

To get a price, all I did was simply divide their scores into the total number of points. There's probably a better way of pricing them. It was just easier that way.

Race 6:
63 Hardy Steele $3.30
43 Mr Magoo $4.90
29 Peace Ruler $7.25
23 Cannyopra $9.15
19 Jar Jar Binks $11.05
14 Limited Impulse $15.00
8 Show 'Em Power $26.25
7 Lord Of The Pines $30.00
3 Firetaine $70.00
1 Flying Ed $210.00

Race 8:
53 Evasion $3.90
44 Party Pie $4.70
40 Capadan $5.20
25 Bondy $8.30
19 You Little Beaut $10.95
14 Many are Called $14.85
7 Liquid Lunch $29.70
6 No High No Song $34.65

We got the winner in the top two picks in each race. I'm surprised at the high ranking of Bondy in R8. My ratings didn't really give it a hope.

[Sportz]

Geez, Sydney racing is disappointing at the moment. Once again, I wanted to pick out a Sydney race to rate this Saturday, but there isn't really a race which is all that suitable for what we're doing here, so Melbourne it is once again. The good thing is we should be starting to get really familiar with some of these horses. :)

A few first-uppers in the Chester Manifold. Should make it interesting.

FLEMINGTON R6 - CHESTER MANIFOLD STAKES 1410 M ($151000) (LISTED).
1 HUGS DANCER (FR) Tony McEvoy D Oliver 10 60
2 PENTASTIC Colin Alderson S W Arnold 7 60
3 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted B E Johns 5 58
4 NATURAL BLITZ Doug Harrison Steven King 9 58
5 ROMAN ARCH Robbie Laing V Duric 13 58
6 COUNT RICARDO Stephen Theodore Matthew Allen 6 57.5
7 LORD VOLKSRAAD (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith N Ryan (a) 8 56
8 YOUTH John Hawkes D Gauci 1 55
9 PRETORIUS (NZ) Brian Mayfield-Smith S Baster 4 53.5
10 GRUNDY'S CROSSING Barbara Marshman B Shinn (a) 12 52.5
11 LOTS OF SWING Bruce Elkington N Wilson 11 52.5
12 REQUISITE (NZ) Michael Moroney G Childs 2 52.5
13 NOBLE RED Lee Freedman L Nolen 3 52

FLEMINGTON R7 - TAUTO WELTER 1720 M ($60000)
1 COOL TRENT Robert Smerdon R Maloney (a3) 10 59
2 UNDER THE BRIDGE Tony Vasil D Moor (a3) 1 59
3 MR. LOFTY (NZ) Peter G Moody V Hall 6 58.5
4 FONOME Sue Naylor N Ryan (a0) 3 57
5 O'CANARVASS Nigel Blackiston D Moor (a3) 8 56.5
6 CHARNWOOD GREEN Chris Wood B Shinn (a0) 5 55.5
7 MODERN ERA Brian Mayfield-Smith S W Arnold 11 55.5
8 TUAREG John Hawkes D Gauci 4 55.5
9 RULING EYES Greg Eurell Steven King 2 55
10 ARCHFORCE Clive Balfour D Oliver 9 54
11 IT'S PICNIC Stephen Theodore D Nikolic 7 54

Good Luck! :)

[Duritz]

Actually if someone has time they could appy it to yesterday's two races we all did, I get the feeling it will come out pretty well.

Duritz

[Duritz]

LOL just realised it has been done already.....

[Duritz]

Oh good I see my black booker Mr. Lofty is in at the track I said suited him, Flemington!!!!

[Filante]

Oh good I see my black booker Mr. Lofty is in at the track I said suited him, Flemington!!!!

What about your red booker Cool Trent? Any hope in this?

[Shaun]

FLEMINGTON R6 - CHESTER MANIFOLD STAKES 1410 M ($151000) (LISTED).

3 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (5) $5.75
2 Pentastic (7) $7.75
6 Count Ricardo (6) $7.79
10 Grundy's Crossing (12) $8.95
8 Youth (1) $10.63

FLEMINGTON R7 - TAUTO WELTER 1720 M ($60000)

3 Mr. Lofty (NZ) (6) $5.32
8 Tuareg (4) $5.69
1 Cool Trent (10) $6.07
2 Under the Bridge (1) $7.32
7 Modern Era (11) $8.42



i am not really sure how i will go with these as you can see they are priced close together with no really defining fav....interesting races

[moeee]

Of course, I could be wrong. Often am. Here's two races in which I'll probably be wrong.



Well without knowing the results I suggest you were!

Maybe a bit less beverages whilst doing the ratings could be rewarding!

[moeee]

What about your red booker Cool Trent? Any hope in this?

And I thought I was the cheeky one.

And without knowing the result of the Australia day races,the prices from this forum suggested this.(My interpretation).

Hardy Steele $4.00
Mr. Magoo $4.40

Evasion $4.00
Party Pie $4.60

Any of these prices available?.Did any of these horses win?

[Sportz]

Yeah Mo, if you look at my post on the previous page, you'll see that I worked out prices based on those races and I came up with odds pretty close to those. Mr Magoo and Party Pie were the winners. They paid $3.20 & $3.70 on Unitab, but I'm sure you could have done better elsewhere. Out of the 6 races we've had in this comp so far, you could have had 5 winners by simply backing the top two picks that we've come up with collectively. They paid $4.20, $2.60, $5.00, $3.20 & $3.70

[DR RON]

Hi Guys, I been pretty busy this week and havent had a chance to log on until now. I probably wouldnt have done the Wednesday thing even if I had known about it as I just would not have had time. Maybe next week. Which races for Saturday Sportz??

[Sportz]

Flemington R6 & 7

[Chrome Prince]

Race 6

Count Ricardo
Hugs Dancer
Lad Of The Manor
Requisite
Youth

Race 7

Cool Trent
O'Canarvass
It's Picnic
Charnwood Green
Tuareg

[Duritz]

Aah Cool Trent, my other black booker. He'd have to be a moral. Great horse. Never would pot the champ.

[Duritz]

I am going to do the form for those races now, wasn't going to until later, possibly tomorrow, but have been whipped into action by the gentle jibes!!!

Gee I hope Mr Lofty is a chance.... he owes me

[Duritz]

Ummm...... I don't know if I am going to have Cool Trent in my top 5..... This is a very even race, he's very badly weighted with no improvement in him, just possible de-provement. (my own word). I don't want to go out on a limb here, but..............


I'M POTTIN' HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sportz]

Sorry, I didn't quite catch that??? :D

[Duritz]

I am going to go so far out on a limb here they'll need a cherry picker to bring me back. I am going to make one of those declarations which are the colour and life of horse racing - a rash one, a brash one, and live or die by it. Here it comes, ready?

COOL TRENT WILL NOT RUN A PLACE!!!

[Chrome Prince]

Racing is a fickle business. What is expected to happen rarely does or with less occurrence than expected. How often have I looked at results and thought - "How the hell did that run a place?" Perhaps we should all follow Duritz and rate the race as if the most obvious chance wasn't even in the field.

[Shaun]

A lot of the time my second pick wins because my first pick is at it's peak...i have not built this in to my ratings....thats why i back the top 2 and some times 3 selections

[ubetido]

Hi Sportz

Out of curiosity have you added my scores correctly overall still on 170 despite Wednesdays results. No big deal mate just curious.

Cheers
Ubetido

[ubetido]

FLEMINGTON RACE 6

6 COUNT RICARDO 2.9
3 LAD OF THE MANOR 3.2
8 YOUTH 13.1
12 REQUISITE 14.9
2 PENTASTIC 28.6

FLEMINGTON RACE 7

2 UNDER THE BRIDGE 3.4
7 MODERN ERA 6.7
3 MR. LOFTY 9.6
6 CHARNWOOD GREEN 10.0
8 TUAREG 12.7

[DR RON]

RACE 6
Lord Volksraad 3.8
Youth 4.0
Grundys crossing 6.8
Lots of swing 8.8
Pentastic 12.00

Race 7

Under the bridge 4.0
Mr lofty 5.8
o carnarvass 7.0
Modern era 7.8
Tuareg 8.5

Cool trent no chance

[Sportz]

Ubetido,

Yep, you scored 82.5 pts on Wednesday and seeing as your other 2 scores were 82.5 & 87.5, when I counted everybody's best 2 scores so far, there was no change at all to your 170. Hope that clears it up. :)

[Duritz]

Dr. Ron good man!!! Join the revolution!!! NO CHANCE TO COOL TRENT!!!!

[Sportz]

Wouldn't it be funny if the horse was scratched after all this??? :D

[Top Rank]

Great banter fellas here are mine. Do you get any compensation for not wanting to bet in these races. Just kidding.

Race 6

Lad Of the Manor - $3.20
Youth - $4.00
Lord Volksraad - $6.90
Count Ricardo - $8.90
Requisite - $16.00


Race 7

Mr Lofty - $4.40
Under The Bridge - $5.80
Charnwood Green - $6.00
Cool Trent - $6.70
Fonome - $8.30

Good Punting

[QuickFunBet]

Flemington Race 6
3. Lad Of The Manor $4.00
13. Noble Red $7.70
12. Requisite $10.00
9. Pretorius $10.50
6. Count Ricardo $11.00

Flemington Race 7
9. Ruling Eyes $6.00
6. Charnwood Green $6.20
5. O'Canarvass $6.40
1. Cool Trent $9.00
2. Under The Bridge $10.00

Thanks,
QFB

[system]

sportz why did we include wed my understanding was sat only and 2 races

[Sportz]

System,

Sorry about that, but quite a few people wanted to have Australia Day included. We won't be doing ratings for every Wednesday, it was just this once for the public holiday. I decided that to be fair to those who missed out, we wouldn't simply add on those scores but we would count everybody's 2 best scores so far, so as a result you haven't really lost a huge amount of ground.

[Chuck]

Requisite $3.20
Lad of the Manor $5.40
Youth $6.00
Hugs Dancer $9.30
Roman Arch $10.00

Tuareg $3.00
Mr Lofty $3.75
Cool Trent $6.30
Modern Era $7.60
Ruling Eyes $11.05

[moeee]

COOL TRENT WILL NOT RUN A PLACE!!!

Your words are good enough for me Duritz!
Hey everyone - GET ON!

What price is it?

[moeee]

Race 6
8 Youth 2.25
3 Lad of the manor 3.60
10 Grundy's Crossing 7.20
7 Lord Volksraad 12.00
6 Count Ricardo $18

Race 7
1 Cool Trent 2.10
3 Mr Lofty 4.20
7 Modern Era 5.40
2 Under the Bridge 12.70
5 O'Carnavass $38

[La Mer]

Wouldn't it be funny if the horse was scratched after all this??? :D

Geez, Robert Smerdon must read this forum, Cool Trent is scratched due to the trainer wanting to run him in a more suitable race!!!

[Sportz]

Yep. He saw that Duritz and Dr Ron rated him no chance and obviously just gave up any thoughts of running today. :D

[zorro]

Race 6
7 9022-Lord Volksraad (NZ) (8) 2.70
8 6x41-Youth (1) 3.00
3 312x-Lad of the Manor (NZ) (5) 7.50
10 14x3-Grundy's Crossing (12) 7.50
2 400x-Pentastic (7) 25.00

Race 7
2 x086-Under the Bridge (1) 2.50
3 3405-Mr. Lofty (NZ) (6) 5.00
6 5353-Charnwood Green (5) 5.00
8 50x4-Tuareg (4) 8.30
5 x131-O'Canarvass (8) 18.70

[Jimmy]

Hi guys

Race 6. Chester Manifold Stks.
8 Youth $3.70
7 Lord Volksraad $4.30
10 Grundy's Crossing $6.10
6 Count Ricardo $7.20
1 Hugs Dancer $9.30


Race 7. Tauto Wltr.
2 Under The Bridge $4.00
8 Tuareg $5.10
4 Fonome $6.00
6 Charnwood Green $7.40
3 Mr. Lofty $9.00

[the mug]

Raining in melbourne....again.

race 6
8- Youth 4.20
10- Grundys crossing 5.50
11- Lots of swing 5.50
3- Lad of the manor 6.50
12- REquisite 11.00

race 7
2- Under the bridge 4.50
7- Modern Era 5.70
5- O'carnavass 6.50
6- Charnwood Green 9.00
8- Tuareg 9.00

cheers n good luck..

[Filante]

Not keen on these races; certainly not betting on them...but here goes -

RACE 6

8. Youth $3.5
3. Lad of the Manor $4.7
7. Lord Volksraad $5.5
12. Requisite $6.3
6. Count Ricardo $10

RACE 7

7. Modern Era $3.0
8. Taureg $5.0
2. Under The Bridge $5.5
6. Charnwood Green $6.5
3. Mr Lofty $10.0

...I'll also make one of those useless comments you hear from tipsters on radio and sky channel: "If Lad of the Manor is fully wound up for this, he'll win".

Good luck to everyone with their investments today. I'm putting my money on Perth Race 5 No.1 Local Legend.

Cheers

[Duritz]

Mooee you had Cool Trent rated a $2.10 chance. You also said "Your words are enough for me Duritz - everyone get on!" when I said it was no chance. You also said when I posted my ratings for Wednesday "without knowing the results, I suggest you probably were!" (meaning I probably was wrong with my ratings) - when a cursory check of results would have shown you that I got both trifectas in my top five.

I must have inadvertently convinced you that I am a bad judge, or bad person or something. If you lost money betting on the race where I incorrectly assessed the chances of the up and coming Cox plate winner Cool Trent then I apologise, and hope that you'll win money betting on my ratings today, so that you feel no further need to criticise me. I win betting my overs on my ratings. I am very proud of that, but also know it is because I put a lot of work into them and have had exceptional training. Hopefully you'll win today too.

Duritz.

PS - I better do some good form now.........

[Filante]

Mooee you had Cool Trent rated a $2.10 chance. You also said "Your words are enough for me Duritz - everyone get on!" when I said it was no chance. You also said when I posted my ratings for Wednesday "without knowing the results, I suggest you probably were!" (meaning I probably was wrong with my ratings) - when a cursory check of results would have shown you that I got both trifectas in my top five.

I must have inadvertently convinced you that I am a bad judge, or bad person or something. If you lost money betting on the race where I incorrectly assessed the chances of the up and coming Cox plate winner Cool Trent then I apologise, and hope that you'll win money betting on my ratings today, so that you feel no further need to criticise me. I win betting my overs on my ratings. I am very proud of that, but also know it is because I put a lot of work into them and have had exceptional training. Hopefully you'll win today too.

Duritz.

PS - I better do some good form now.........

Duritz,

I think Moeee was just trying to be funny/ cheeky. Everyone knows that you are one of the better and more inteeligent tipsters/ raters on this forum. Let's go mash the bookies!

Cheers,

F

[Shaun]

UPDATED RATINGS
FLEMINGTON R6 - CHESTER MANIFOLD STAKES 1410 M ($151000) (LISTED).

3 Lad of the Manor (NZ) (5) $5.75
2 Pentastic (7) $7.75
6 Count Ricardo (6) $7.79
10 Grundy's Crossing (12) $8.95
8 Youth (1) $10.63

FLEMINGTON R7 - TAUTO WELTER 1720 M ($60000)
3 Mr. Lofty (NZ) (6) $4.58
8 Tuareg (4) $4.89
2 Under the Bridge (1) $6.29
7 Modern Era (11) $7.24
5 O'Canarvass (8) $9.30

[Sportz]

Very worried about having a non-winner like Lord Volksraad on top and a proven winner like Lad Of The Manor in 3rd, but that's how they came out. Also worried about leaving out Requisite and Mr Lofty. They were equal 5th rated in each race.

Race 6
07 LORD VOLKSRAAD $2.40
08 YOUTH $2.80
03 LAD OF THE MANOR $14.10
10 GRUNDY'S CROSSING $14.10
13 NOBLE RED $23.90

Race 7
02 UNDER THE BRIDGE $2.40
08 TUAREG $4.90
04 FONOME $10.20
06 CHARNWOOD GREEN $12.20
05 O'CANARVASS $17.40

[Chuck]

Update:

Requisite $3.20
Lad of the Manor $5.40
Youth $6.00
Hugs Dancer $9.30
Roman Arch $10.00

Tuareg $3.00
Mr Lofty $3.75
Modern Era $7.60
Ruling Eyes $11.05
Under the Bridge $18.00

[QuickFunBet]

With the scratching of Cool Trent from Race 7, my amended ratings are:

9. Ruling Eyes $5.50
6. Charnwood Green $5.70
5. O'Carnavass $6.00
2. Under The Bridge $9.00
7. Modern Era $11.00

Thanks,
QFB

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Couple of difficult races today... In both races I have other horses rated equal with the 5th horse I ahve posted... but ya have to make a choice :)

Good luck all

Race 6 3:30 PM Chester Manifold Stakes Handicap
Listed Race Apprentices Cannot Claim.
7 $4.0 Lord Volksraad
8 $5.3 Youth
3 $7.1 Lad Of The Manor
10 $9.5 Grundy's Crossing
1 $12.5 Hugs Dancer

Race 7 4:10 PM Tauto Welter Handicap 4yo+ Welter
2 $3.0 Under The Bridge
6 $7.0 Charnwood Green
4 $9.2 Fonome
8 $12.3 Tuareg
3 $12.3 Mr. Lofty

[Sportz]

Sorry, I made a slight mistake when I did my ratings for R7. Here are the new ratings:

02 UNDER THE BRIDGE $2.50
08 TUAREG $5.00
04 FONOME $10.30
03 MR LOFTY $12.40
06 CHARNWOOD GREEN $12.40

You watch O'canarvass win now.

[Top Rank]

Changing up on Race 7 after the scratching.

Mr Lofty - $4.00
Tuareg - $5.00
Fonome - $7.00
Modern Era - $7.00
Under The Bridge - $10.00

Good Punting

[Chrome Prince]

Race 6

Count Ricardo
Hugs Dancer
Lad Of The Manor
Requisite
Youth

Race 7

O'Canarvass
It's Picnic
Charnwood Green
Tuareg
Mr. Lofty

EDITED FOR COOL TRENT SCRATCHING

[Duritz]

OK here's mine. Two very even races. Look for value punters!!!

race 6 3.30
seln mgn price name
10 0.0 $6.1 GRUNDYS CROSSING
9 0.5 $7.6 PRETORIUS
7 1.0 $10.8 LORD VOLKSRAAD
13 1.2 $11.8 NOBLE RED
8 1.2 $12.1 YOUTH

race 7 4.10
seln mgn price name
6 0.0 $7.9 CHARNWOOD GREEN
3 0.1 $8.1 MR LOFTY
2 0.3 $8.8 UNDER THE BRI-NZ
9 0.5 $9.8 RULING EYES
7 0.7 $11.4 MODERN ERA


and I had Tuareg priced at 11.50. Tough race. How I wish Cool Trent were still in it, that mighty steed.....

[Chuck]

Requisite has firmed from $16.00 to $9.00...i got him fixed @ $16 though, and Tuareg @ $7.00

[La Mer]

Race 6:
Youth $4.20
Lad of the Manor $5.00
Requisite $6.50
Grundy's Crossing $8.50
Count Ricardo $11.50

Race 7:
Modern Era $5.00
Under The Bridge $5.50
Mr. Lofty $6.50
Charnwood Green $7.50
Fonome $8.50

[Duritz]

just in case of late scratchings bc of the rain my next two picks in race 6 are 3,2 and in race 7 are 8,10

[Heavyweight]

MR6:

8. Youth $2.60
13. Noble Red $6.50
3. Lord of the Manor $8.50
10. Grundy's Crossing $11.00
6. Count Ricardo $12.00

MR7

2. Under the Bridge $4.50
6. Charnwood Green $5.00
5. O'Canarvass $6.50
3. Mr. Lofty $7.00
7. Modern Era $8.50

If the track's only dead, what's with all the late scratchings? What's it really like over there?

[moeee]

Race 7
1 Cool Trent 2.10
3 Mr Lofty 4.20
7 Modern Era 5.40
2 Under the Bridge 12.70
5 O'Carnavass $38

Without Cool Trent
3 Mr Lofty 2.20
7 Modern Era 2.85
2 Under the Bridge 6.70
5 O'Carnavass $20

[moeee]

Duritz.
Apologise for causing Duress.
I backed at least 2 winners from your ratings early when you began posting.
Somehow you have fallen away.
Surely you can't claim Mr.Magoo at rating $9.60 as a winner.
Or Party Pie at $16.00
Neither of these 2 horses were anywhere near that price.

And know that I have been playing on this forum for almost 10 months and have noticed when people make a huge statement regarding a selections chances,the opposite usually occurs.
Believe it is caused by the forum curse.

I'm sure Sportznut,a favourite poster with almost everyone will back me up on the last statement.

And like the Chome Man said,Much of my bagging is done tongue in cheek.
Thanks for the good wishes and hopefully you get over your current lapse in form.

And I timed out on my telephone connection ... again.
Can someone please advise as to why,when I type in more than half a dozen lines I need to feed OPTUS another 20 cents?

[xptdriver]

moeee wrote :

And I timed out on my telephone connection ... again.
Can someone please advise as to why,when I type in more than half a dozen lines I need to feed OPTUS another 20 cents?[/QUOTE]

Gday moeee.

Maybe this will help... go control panel > internet options>double click then hi light the connection you wish to alter.. then click.. settings>properties then click the options Tab .. you will se a drop down box with the title "idle time before hanging up" set that to never . press OK and that should do it..

Another very simple way to avoid the problem is to set your mail prgram to check every 5 mins or so to beat the idle that your ISP has sset at their end..

[Sportz]

And know that I have been playing on this forum for almost 10 months and have noticed when people make a huge statement regarding a selections chances,the opposite usually occurs.
Believe it is caused by the forum curse.


Yep. Remember what I said about looking like a goose when you make a bold statement. I would never make a statement like such and such a horse CAN'T win, because you can be sure that horse would suddenly become Phar Lap, Kingston Town and Tulloch rolled into one.

[moeee]

Thanks for the output XPTdriver.
My hang up when idle minutes comes up in light grey writing meaning I can't adjust the setting.
Might try that Mail thing you mentioned.
Like if I go to the door or toilet and come back,no problems.Only when I want to write a long story.
But it seems if I pay the extra 20 cents,I can write for longer,as I haven't timed out whilst writing this.

[Sportz]

These were the top 5 picks going by the consensus of all the ratings:

R6:
Youth 59 pts
Lad Of The Manor 52 pts
Lord Volksraad 35 pts
Grundy's Crossing 31 pts
Count Ricardo 21 pts

R7:
Under The Bridge 60 pts
Mr Lofty 46 pts
Charnwood Green 35 pts
Tuareg 35 pts
Modern Era 34 pts

[Sportz]

Well done to Duritz who got the trifecta on R6. There were only 3 of us with Noble Red in the ratings.

[Sportz]

Today's results:
Duritz (50 + 42.5) 92.5 pts
Heavyweight (47.5 + 32.5) 80 pts
Sportz (30 + 50) 80 pts
QuickFunBet (40 + 35) 75 pts
xptdriver (10 + 62.5) 72.5 pts
Jimmy (10 + 55) 65 pts
Top Rank (15 + 35) 50 pts
Chrome Prince (10 + 40) 50 pts
La Mer (15 + 32.5) 47.5 pts
Filante (15 + 32.5) 47.5 pts
The mug (17.5 + 27.5) 45 pts
ubetido (15 + 27.5) 42.5 pts
zorro (10 + 30) 40 pts
Chuck (15 + 17.5) 32.5 pts
Dr Ron (12.5 + 7.5) 20 pts
Shaun (5 + 12.5) 17.5 pts
Moeee (10 + 2.5) 12.5 pts

Results so far:
Sportz 350 pts :o
Filante 307.5 pts
Jimmy 305 pts
La Mer 300 pts
zorro 270 pts
Duritz 270 pts
Top Rank 265 pts
The heavyweight 262.5 pts
xpt driver 252.5 pts
Chrome Prince 237.5 pts
QuickFunBet 225 pts
Shaun 220 pts
ubetido 212.5 pts
The mug 212.5 pts
Dr Ron 185 pts
system 137.5 pts
Rabbit 87.5 pts
Maverick1993 87.5 pts
Chuck 32.5 pts
Moeee 12.5 pts

[Chrome Prince]

Thanks Sportz,

I'm now sitting midfield in the rankings, locked away on the fence, but bullocking my way out looking for a run. I fear it may be another hard luck story. :D

Well done Sportz and Duritz on efforts today!!!

[moeee]

Well done to Duritz who got the trifecta on R6. There were only 3 of us with Noble Red in the ratings.

Duritz,Sportz,Heavyweight and Quickfunbet makes 4.

And I'm not playing no more.

And Congratulations in order to Duritz for putting the bottle away and coming up with all the right answers.

[Duritz]

Yeah good day on punt. Betted in five races, backed four winners, including Noble Red of course and Charnwood Green. Hey mooee I wasn't claiming party pie and mr magoo as value winners in my top five, i was claiming both trifectas in my top five, which I did have. After missing the kick in this comp (thanks to the graveyard Caulfield) I have made up some ground. Is there anything left in the tank?

Duritz

PS Cool Trent was scratched because he was preparing for the Australia Cup instead.......... j/k Disappointing though to make a huge call like that and not know if right or wrong.

[Top Rank]

Chrome, if your sitting midfield, I am sitting just off the pace, just waiting for a run (ie: a race that I actually want). I am a stayer so the further the race goes the better I'll be. Well done to those Noble Red tipsters, this horse has more wins in store.


Good Punting

[Sportz]

Duritz,Sportz,Heavyweight and Quickfunbet makes 4.


Yeah, I forgot to add Heavyweight to the page of scribble I was looking at when I posted that.

Don't worry. I don't look at that page when working out the results. ;)

[Sportz]

Yeah good day on punt. Betted in five races, backed four winners, including Noble Red of course and Charnwood Green.

Is that a word? :)

Anyway, yeah, this comp is actually helping me greatly in sorting out the races I concentrate on.

[Sportz]

Interesting that nobody has scored zero points for any race yet. To get 0 points, it means that none of your top 5 rated horses finish in the top 5 placings in the race. Wonder who'll be the first!

[DR RON]

I'm annoyed with myself for not rating Noble Red in my topfive. If I had of used his rating from his firstup run I would have had him equal second in my selections, but decided to use his ratingsfrom similar distances in previous preparations. I assumed his first up rating was just one of those unusual ones and decided toignore it. Probably his price put me off. It should teach me to go with my own thoughts rather than the betting publics!!!!!!

Sportz, If i had him rated second, how many points would that have been worth???

[Sportz]

That's 30 points, but given that you would have also had Youth in the top 3, that's a total score of 47.5 which would have been the equal 2nd highest score for the race.

I don't believe in looking for ONE magical run to use as a base rating. As I've said before, I like to keep it simple. I ALWAYS use the horse's last run no matter what and then I usually just average that with the horse's highest rating recent run under similar conditions to today. I do something a bit different for horses which are 1st or 2nd up though.

[the mug]

Interesting that nobody has scored zero points for any race yet. To get 0 points, it means that none of your top 5 rated horses finish in the top 5 placings in the race. Wonder who'll be the first!

Sportz my man,...
Just give it some time, the way these ratings are going lately it wont be long before i get the 5 big unplacers..(thats definantly not a word)

[Duritz]

LOL that's a ripper of a word.....

[Sportz]

it wont be long before i get the 5 big unplacers..(thats definantly not a word)

What's definantly? :D

[Heavyweight]

Picking five runners to all finish outside the top 5 is very difficult, though I like my chances of being the first to achieve it.

I think we need an opportunity for us all to go out on a limb like Duritz did with Cool Trent and potentially embarrass ourselves. Maybe we could run a "pick a loser" competition. Each Saturday, we could each nominate a horse that we don't think can win. Points could be awarded based on the horse's starting price. For example, someone might nominate a runner to lose, and it duly loses at $3.00(SP). The player would score 33 points. On the other hand, if the horse won, 67 points would be deducted. Just a thought; I'm new here so it might have been done before.

Cheers,
H.

[Sportz]

Interesting idea. Personally, I don't really understand the whole 'laying' thing very much and I'm not into saying that this horse WON'T win. I just try to work out what WILL win.

[Duritz]

I think that's a great idea Heavyweight. All we need is someone to run it.

Sportz - a note on the laying thing:

Bascially, when you lay a horse, you're a pervert!! Sorry j/k. When you lay a horse, you are essentially being the bookmaker instead of the punter. So, if tomorrow we met at the pub and I said Cool trent couldn't win the hcp it was in, and it was paying $3.0 on the tote, you could say to me "OK, but I really like Cool Trent, can I back it with you?" I would of course say yes, and offer you say $3.50 to entice a bet. Say you had $100 on it with me, that would mean of course that you were backing it at $3.50 with me, to profit $250 should it win. Conversely, it means that I am laying it at $3.50 to you, for a loss of $250 should it win, but a profit of $100 should it win.

That is all straight forward of course. Betfair aren't any different to that, it's just getting your head around it that's the hurdle. If instead of going to the pub you went to Betfair for the imaginary Cool Trent race tomorrow, you might see on the board something like this:

Back Lay
3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0
120 500 1200 1000 1120 450

What that means is this. On the left hand side are the best three prices available for you to back Cool Trent at, should you wish to. The best price is closest to the middle, $3.40. The 1200 below it means you can have anything up to $1200 on the horse at that price. That's the combined amount the people who wish to lay Cool Trent at the $3.40 are offering for you to back. Essentially, the people who wish to lay Cool Trent (or play bookie against it) at odds of $3.40 are willing to risk a combined total of $2880 about it winning, ie $2.40*1200 (2.40 being the profit on the bet). On the right hand side are the prices you can lay it at (or play bookie against it) if you think it will lose. The SHORTEST price is the best one for you of course if you are being the bookie on it, and the shortest is $3.50 so you can lay it at $3.50 if you want to.

Basically, that $3.50 that you can lay it at means that someone (or many people) have clicked on and requested odds of $3.50 cool trent, so now the odds are there on the lay side, waiting for someone to lay those odds about cool trent to them.

Does that help?

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Does that help?


Yeah. I guess so. Now at least I know what all those numbers mean on that Betfair site. It was like some foreign language to me before now. But I think I'll stick to trying to pick horses to win or place. I don't like the idea of having to pay out extra money on top of my bet if I'm wrong.

If you guys want a 'lay of the day' comp, someone else better run it, I think.

[La Mer]

But I think I'll stick to trying to pick horses to win or place. I don't like the idea of having to pay out extra money on top of my bet if I'm wrong.

What do you mean Sportz? No one pays out 'extra money' on top of their bet if it is a losing one. Only the winners pay a commission to Betfair, the level of which depends on each individual's turnover.

[Sportz]

I'm sorry. I told you I didn't understand it. You probably think I'm really stupid, but I'm only used to betting on horses to win, not lose.

What I'm trying to work out is this. Using the example Duritz made, if you bet $100 on the horse to win at $3.50, you get $350 if it wins. That's easy. But I still don't know how to work out the 'laying' part of it. How much money do you bet and wouldn't you have to pay $350 if the horse wins? That's what I meant by paying extra money.

[La Mer]

I'm sorry. I told you I didn't understand it. I'm only used to betting on horses to win, not lose.

What I'm trying to work out is this. Using the example Duritz made, if you bet $100 on the horse to win at $3.50, you get $350 if it wins. That's easy. But I still don't know how to work out the 'laying' part of it. How much money do you bet and wouldn't you have to pay $350 if the horse wins? That's what I meant by paying extra money.

In the example, as a layer if the horse wins, the layer pays out the $350, on which the winning punter pays a commission to Betfair. However, if the horse loses, the layer wins $100 (the stake money) on which they pay Betfair a commission. In the case of a 5% commission rate (the maximum) then if the horse wins a commission of $12.50 (5% x $250) and if the horse loses a commission of $5 (5% x $100) to Betfair.

And if you're smart enough it is possible to pay both punter and layer on the same horse and profit if the horse loses or wins.

[Sportz]

Think I'll just stick to betting to win.

[Duritz]

Forget the comission stuff to Betfair - let me elaborate to see if I can get you to get it proplerly Sportz.

Back to the example - you put $100 on the horse at $3.50, collect $3.50. If you want to LAY the horse, but the maximum you wish to risk is still only $100, then you lay it at $3.50 and allow the punter to have only $40 on it with you, because them having $40 on it with you means if it wins you lose $100 (3.50 * 40 = 140 - $40 stake). So by laying it if it loses you would win $40, and risk $100 to do so, whereas if you risked your $100 on it to win you'd profit $250 should it do so. The difference is - of course - that a horse at odds of $3.50 will lose more times than it will win.

Does that help? Keep asking, Sportz, we'll crack it yet.

Duritz.

[Sportz]

Ah, that's better. Thanks Duritz. Now I get it.

[Duritz]

Good. So, when Heavyweight said if we run a pick a loser comp, he said that

"Points could be awarded based on the horse's starting price. For example, someone might nominate a runner to lose, and it duly loses at $3.00(SP). The player would score 33 points. On the other hand, if the horse won, 67 points would be deducted."

So in a comp like that, the shorter the horse is that gets beat, the better you have gone.

Also, we could run it as a comp where they thereotically LAY the horse to risk $100, at whatever it starts at on the tote. So if it starts at $3.00 and gets beat, they are +$50 (because they would have let someone have $50 on it with them, risking $100 at $3.00) and if it wins they are -$100.

I think it's a great idea - however I must say with all due respect that I don't really have time to run it, if that's OK with everyone. Is there someone who would like to run it?

Duritz.

[La Mer]

Good. So, when Heavyweight said if we run a pick a loser comp, he said that

"Points could be awarded based on the horse's starting price. For example, someone might nominate a runner to lose, and it duly loses at $3.00(SP). The player would score 33 points. On the other hand, if the horse won, 67 points would be deducted." Duritz.

Duritz/Heavyweight: I'm happy to give it a go along the lines suggested by the Heavyweight along the following lines;

Lays Of The Day Contest
Two races each Saturday nominating between one and three horses in each race that won’t win.

Points awarded according to Official Starting Price based on betting to return $100 (100 points)

If that's Ok, start it this week, nominating one race in Melbourne (which will be the Lightning Stakes) and one in Sydney (which will be the Clissold Stakes).

I'll post under a seperate heading as well.

[Sportz]

Okay, getting back to the Ratings Challenge, here's what I think we should do.

I know the Lightning is definitely the biggest race this week, but there's a lot of confusion over the Flemington meeting with doubts on the weather and state of the track and even if it will actually go ahead. As a result, I think we should have a go at Rosehill this week instead. It will be good for a change in any case. These are the two races I've chosen:

ROSEHILL RACE 7 - SPASA NSW FREDERICK CLISSOLD STAKES 1200 M ($101200)
1 DESERT WAR Gai Waterhouse C Munce 7 57.5
2 INSPIRE Clarry Conners J Cassidy 3 55
3 MUSTARD George Crowley R M Quinn 8 54.5
4 PATEZZA Guy Walter L Cassidy 1 54.5
5 DAMIGOS Gerald Ryan J Ford 9 53.5
6 PRESENTLY Bruce McLachlan Z Purton 6 53
7 TIMBOURINA Tony Wildman J Innes 4 52.5
8 UTZON Les Bridge R Stewart 10 52
9 COOL FRONT John O'Shea D Beadman 2 52
10 JAMIESON VALLEY Gwenda Markwell D McLellan 5 52

ROSEHILL RACE 8 - FEB 26, NOVA 969 PARTY MARQUEE HANDICAP 1500 M ($60000)
1 COUNTY TYRONE Kris Lees 9 62
2 JEREMIAD John Hawkes 13 58
3 SATURDAY FEVER Tony McEvoy C Munce 2 56
4 SEUL AMOUR (NZ) Graeme Rogerson J Cassidy 8 55
5 DIAL TONES Jack Denham J Innes 4 54.5
6 LEG IRONS Alicia Willick H Bowman 1 54.5
7 SUNSHINE SAM (NZ) John Hawkes 11 54.5
8 DIAMOND SUN (NZ) Darren Smith D McLellan 6 53
9 DESERT RANSOM John Hawkes 3 53
10 MAHTOUM Kim Moore J Ford 7 53
11 CHAINSAW CHARLIE Gai Waterhouse L Cassidy 10 53
12 KEEPING THE FAITH Robert Price Z Purton 5 53
13 VERB (NZ) Jack Denham C Agnew 12 53

Hope you guys don't mind rating these Sydney races this week. I think it will make things easier.

[Shaun]

ROSEHILL RACE 7 - SPASA NSW FREDERICK CLISSOLD STAKES 1200 M ($101200)
1 Desert War (7) $3.99
9 Cool Front (2) $6.49
4 Patezza (1) $8.69
3 Mustard (8) $8.69
8 Utzon (10) $8.95

ROSEHILL RACE 8 - FEB 26, NOVA 969 PARTY MARQUEE HANDICAP 1500 M ($60000)
2 Jeremiad (13) $5.54
1 County Tyrone (9) $7.08
4 Seul Amour (NZ) (8) $7.57
6 Leg Irons (1) $8.88
8 Diamond Sun (NZ) (6) $10.49

[Duritz]

Fine with me - any idea what the sydney track will be? Also, I notice in Melbourne that Group 1 Cool Trent is in............... LAY!!!!!

[Sportz]

Should be Good or possibly just slightly into the Dead range.

[Duritz]

Thanks.

[Duritz]

OK here are my ratings with 80% prices for those two races. I will give you my top eight, as I am going out tomorrow and will not be able to update for scratchings, so if I have scratchings could you automatically promote for me please! If I run out of picks because of heaps of scratchings, hell I don't know, work down from the top in saddlecloth order and give me whichever horse you first come across that I don't have.... Giving 8 picks per race, you'd think I'd be OK...

race 7 ROSEHILL
seln mgn price name
4 0.0 $5.3 PATEZZA
3 0.7 $7.5 MUSTARD
1 0.8 $8.0 DESERT WAR
8 0.9 $8.7 UTZON
6 1.4 $11.8 PRESENTLY
9 1.6 $14.4 COOL FRONT
5 1.6 $14.4 DAMIGOS
2 3.8 $132.3 INSPIRE

race 8 5.50
seln mgn price name
5 0.0 $7.0 DIAL TONES
9 0.3 $7.9 DESERT RANSOM
10 0.6 $9.6 MAHTOUM
7 0.7 $9.7 SUNSHINE SAM-NZ
8 1.3 $14.9 DIAMOND SUN
11 1.4 $15.3 CHAINSAW CHARLIE
4 1.6 $18.6 SEUL AMOUR-NZ
6 2.0 $28.7 LEG IRONS

They both look even races to me.

Duritz.

[Duritz]

BTW does anyone know what price Mustard is likely to be tomorrow? It's just that TAB sportsbet currently has it at $15, wondering if that's worth a little nibble.

Duritz.

[Shaun]

I don't about that,,,but 2 INSPIRE won a few days aago....he not suited to 12 but i am sure Conners knows what he is doing....i didn't rate hime in my top 5 but will be having some thing on him.

[Sportz]

Desert War is an early scratching from the Clissold tomorrow.

[Sportz]

Should be Good or possibly just slightly into the Dead range.

That's given no more rain of course. I hope I don't end up regretting my decision to use Rosehill instead of Flemington.

[xptdriver]

Gday All

Here are my thoughts on these 2 Races... I will update em if need be thru scratchings

Race 7 5:10 PM Spasa Frederick Clissold Stakes Handicap 3yo+
Group 3 Apprentices Cannot Claim.

9 $4.4 Cool Front
4 $4.4 Patezza
6 $5.8 Presently
3 $7.8 Mustard
10 $10.4 Jamieson Valley

Race 8 5:50 PM Feb 26 Nova 969 Party Handicap 3yo+ Open

8 $5.8 Diamond Sun
11 $5.8 Chainsaw Charlie
4 $7.7 Seul Amour
6 $7.7 Leg Irons
9 $10.3 Desert Ransom

[Duritz]

OK here's my updated top 8 with desert war removed

race 7 5.10
seln mgn price name
4 0.0 $4.5 PATEZZA
3 0.7 $6.4 MUSTARD
8 0.9 $7.3 UTZON
6 1.4 $10.0 PRESENTLY
9 1.6 $12.1 COOL FRONT
5 1.6 $12.2 DAMIGOS
2 3.8 $111.6 INSPIRE
7 4.4 $174.4 TIMBOURINA

[DR RON]

Race 7

Patezza 3.5
Cool front 4.8
uzon 4.9
presently 10.1
inspire 15.5

Race 8

desert ransom 3.6
seul armour 5.6
dial tones 7.8
sunshine sam 7.9
leg irons 10.5