In a PPM archive article, they have the formula for a dutch/hedge calculations.

Formula A
The way the formula is constructed, it uses the ( spend the whole $20.00) on your 3 selected runners.
That's OK, I have no issues about it.

Formula B
I need the "reverse" method, where it's, make a profit of $20.00 on your selected 3 runners.

The Formula A as wriiten from a PPM article is:


So what would be the "reverse" to "make $20.00 profit after total bet cost" formula be, using the same part where it says,

Thanks

Hi Puntz
The attached is what you want I think.
Change the Divs to suit (Yellow) and the amount to win (Blue)
I think that is what you are asking.

Attached Files

Dutch Book.xlsm (10.3 KB, 1249 views)

Thanks Surround.

I can see what you've done in principle with Cell J4 and J7 formula.
By comparison I think something else is missing and I just don't know what it is, yet.
When I change the Cell K4 to 25 ( generally a default value for simplicity ), it calculates 70 units required to make 25 units profit after bet cost.
That is way way to high a cost.

I have a DOS program, a with hedge calculator - with settings for "make profit of", then Enter the amount 100, 200, or in this test case, 25.

Once I get the graphics working with the help of a puter techie ( XP does not like DOS programs with graphs !) I'll be able to see again what the exact unit amounts are using the odds available and hopefully we can "reverse engineer" this thing and then use those formulas in excel.

The goal/s to reach in the mean time, or a strategy is to control the Cost by a Variable percent.

Meaning, if one wants to make 25 units profit, and the Max Cost allowed is 80% of 25 = 20, then it is a bet on those 3 runners.
The 80% can be adjusted of course, to 100, or even to 110, one may choose to spend 30 units to make 25 units profit, it's personal choice.

Let's say we have Divs
3.50
4.00
5.00
If my memory serves me correctly, I think with those odds it be close to 20 units to make 25 units profit after cost of total bet.
If my Max is set to 80% of 25, ( 20 ) then I can assume it's a Value bet.
If I want to use lower priced runners, (1.80 fav), naturally it may blow out to 35 Units to make 25 Profit. That's OK to, IF one has their settings at 120 % instead of 80%
Some choose to not bet on favorites, but the rest of the field has a few runners under 7/1's. The variable 80 % limiter for 25 Unit profit goal may assist in determining a "Value Hedged Bet".


When I get the graphics sorted later this week, I'll be able to run this DOS program, put in the Odds, and see what it comes up with.

Thanks once again, much appreciated for your help.

Ok,

got it to work

If the goal is to make 25 units profit
when;

TAB 1: DIVS - 3.50, UNITS TO BET: 13
TAB 2: DIVS - 4.00, UNITS TO BET: 11
TAB 3: DIVS - 5.00, UNITS TO BET: 9

TOTAL BET UNITS: 33

TAB 1, if it won, 13 units * 3.50 = 45.50 rtn - 33 cost = 12.50 profit.

TAB 2, if it won, 11 units * 4.00 = 44.00 rtn - 33 cost = 11.00 profit.

TAB 3, if it won, 13 units * 5.00 = 65.00 rtn - 33 cost = 32.00 profit.

Of course this is above the 80% rule, but the point is how does it arrive at those bet unit amounts,

what's the formula ?

Example 2
If it's set to make 100 units profit using the same DIVS

1: 52 units. DIVS - 3.50. 182 rtn - 134 = 48 profit
2: 46 units. DIVS - 4.00. 184 rtn - 134 = 50 "
3: 36 units. DIVS - 5.00. 180 rtn - 134 = 46 "

Total cost: 134

Thanks

Puntz, I think the following is what your looking for:

If you have 3 horses with odds 3.50, 4.00 and 5.00 and you wish to dutch to 25 units profit you have to stake the following:

3.50 = 27.0270 stake = 94.5946 return = 25.00 profit
4.00 = 23.6486 stake = 94.5946 return = 25.00 profit
5.00 = 18.9189 stake = 94.5946 return = 25.00 profit

Total Stake = 69.5945 or 278% of profit target.

For the stake to be 80% you'd need odds (as an example) as per the following:

4.00 = 11.2403 stake = 44.9612 return = 25.00 profit
8.00 = 5.6201 stake = 44.9612 return = 25.00 profit
14.50 = 3.1008 stake = 44.9612 return = 25.00 profit

Total stake for this scenario is 19.9612 which is 80% of your 25 profit goal. Note in this scenario you have approximately 44% of winning the bet based on the odds.

The above can be easily calculated in excel, took me some fiddling around before I remembered how to do the equation but got it all sorted now. Email me if you want to discuss further or just simply want the equation and I can help you set it up in excel. I find its better to know how an equation works rather than simply using a downloaded calculator.

You'll find my email address in UB's 100 units profit thread in the system section.

Just thought i would re post this sheet as it has every type of dutch you need for backing and laying with formulas.

Attached Files

Saver-Dutch calculator.xlsx (24.0 KB, 1245 views)

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
_______________________________________________

evajb001.

The strategy is;
80% of the Profit Target if the Pr. Target is 25, ( 20 ), or if the Pr.Target is to make 100 profit, then the user's personal preference cut-off is 80.

This 80% is a Variable, sometimes it's obvious it may need to be "adjusted" to 100% or 120%. It does not form part of the actual formula for the amount to bet. It's a guide.

But the Program/calculator, ( not a downloaded calculator )
is in DOS, got it to work by using DosBox, a DOS emulator http://www.dosbox.com/


I'm trying to "reverse engineer" this program's calculations, and the only way I know is to look at it's output, and try to work from there, then tweak it in Excel.

I'll send you an email when I find the thread.

Thanks

Puntz,

Understand the 80% level was variable just wanted to illustrate the kind of odds you'd need for your stake to be 80% of the targetted profit.

I'll keep an eye out for your email, reverse engineering equations and problem solving anything to do with numbers always peaks my interest. Hence why I find myself looking at horse racing in my free time and shares in my work time haha.

I'll have a squizz at your spreadsheet tonight as well if I get the chance Shaun.

Josh

Hi Guys,

Not sure if this of interest.

If you want to collect $100, Divide 100 by the horses price and bet that amount

e.g. $3.50 - 100/3.50=28.57 units
$28.57 x $3.50 = $100

If you want to win $100, Divide 100 by horses price-1 and bet that amount

e.g. $3.50 - 100 /(3.50-1) = 100/2.5 = 40
$40 x $3.50 = $140 less $40 = $100

Thanks Shaun

Your Spreadsheet hits the nail me thinks !

I tested one race today at Gosford race 1
favourite won btw, No: 5

Prices at 11 mins before start, ( this is a test )
DOS HEDGE CALCULATOR
Goal/Target: 100
Tab 3, 16.10 Bet Units 9
Tab 7, 13.00 Bet Units 11
Tab 6, 54.00 Bet Units 3
Total Cost: 23
-------------------------------
Shaun's Spreadsheet with the same Prices
Goal/Target: 100
Units to Stake show:
Dutch profit.
Tab 3, 16.10 Bet Units 8.37
Tab 7, 13.00 Bet Units 10.36
Tab 6, 54.00 Bet Units 2.49
Total Cost: 21.22

The tweak here is the round up or down.


more later,

Thanks