Rugby Union

[kiwiz]

The Six Nations
Wales up against Ireland
Taking Wales +6.5 pyol

Wales 23:16

[kiwiz]

The Six Nations
England up against Scotland
Taking England

England 25:13

[kiwiz]

The Six Nations
England up against Scotland
Taking Scotland +20.5 pyol

England 25:13

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Newcastle up against Bath
Taking Bath

Bath 29:19

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
North Harbour up against Northland
Taking North Harbour

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Auckland up against Tasman
Taking Auckland

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Hawkes Bay up against Bay of Plenty
Taking Hawkes Bay

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Canterbury up against Taranaki
Taking Canterbury

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Wellington up against Otago
Taking Wellington

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Wellington up against Otago
Taking Otago +12.5 handicap

[kiwiz]

RWC
South Africa up against Wales
Taking South Africa

[kiwiz]

RWC
New Zealand up against France
Taking NZ

[kiwiz]

RWC
Ireland up against Argentina
Taking Ireland

[kiwiz]

RWC
Ireland up against Argentina
Taking Argentina +12.5 handicap

[kiwiz]

RWC
Australia up against Scotland
Taking Australia

[kiwiz]

RFU Championship
London Welsh up against Jersey
Taking London Welsh

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Worcester up against Northampton
Taking Northampton

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Golden Lions up against Free State Cheetahs
Taking Golden Lions

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Connacht up against Zebre
Taking Connacht 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Glasgow Warriors up against Dragons
Taking Glasgow Warriors

[rhino82]

Rugby Union, World Cup winner, main bet New Zealand, minor bet England

Rugby Union, Top Tryscorer, main bet Julian Savea, minor bets Ben Smith & Israel Folau & Anthony Watson
Glad I got early, NZ & Julian Savea now both in the red. Got the double going as well :)

[kiwiz]

National Rugby Championship
Canberra Vikings up against Melbourne Rising
Taking Canberra Vikings

[kiwiz]

National Rugby Championship
Brisbane City up against Sydney Stars
Taking Brisbane City 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

RFU Championship
Yorkshire Carnegie up against Moseley
Taking Yorkshire Carnegie

[grizzle]

rugby world cup
nz ($2.50)

bit of scare against the springboks, but into the final

[Sands]

Rugby World Cup


New Zealand v Australia

New Zealand v Australia +11.5

[rhino82]

Rugby Union, World Cup winner, main bet New Zealand, minor bet England
Main bet successful

[rhino82]

Rugby Union, World Under 20 Championship winner, main bet England, minor bet New Zealand
Minor bet successful

[rhino82]

Rugby Union, Top Tryscorer, main bet Julian Savea, minor bets Ben Smith & Israel Folau & Anthony Watson
Main bet successful

[rhino82]

Glad I got in early, NZ & Julian Savea now both in the red. Got the double going as well
Double successful

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Glasgow Warriors up against Cardiff Blues
Taking Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors 36:17

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Benetton Treviso up against Ospreys
Taking Ospreys
Ospreys 33:13

[kiwiz]

RFU Championship

Plymouth Albion up against Bristol
Taking Bristol

Worcester up against Yorkshire Carnegie
Taking Worcester

Bristol 65:7
Worcester 39:26

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Saracens up against Leicester
Taking Saracens
Saracens 22:6

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Zebre up against Scarlets
Taking Scarlets
Scarlets 28:26

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Dragons
Taking Edinburgh
Edinburgh 45:16

[kiwiz]

Canada Women's Sevens
Taking NZ
NZ 29:10 (Final)

[kiwiz]

[QUOTE=kiwiz]Aviva Premiership
Bath up against London Irish
Taking Bath 13+ margin/QUOTE]
Bath 43:18

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Gloucester
Taking Gloucester
Gloucester 19:13

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Gloucester
Taking Edinburgh +12.5 handicap
Gloucester 19:13

[kiwiz]

Junior World Championships
Taking NZ
NZ 21-16 (Final)

[kiwiz]

RFU Championship
Worcester up against London Scottish
Taking Worcester 13+ margin
Worcester 38:15

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Scarlets up against Cardiff Blues
Taking Scarlets
Scarlets 16:6

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Bath up against Gloucester
Taking Bath
Bath 50:30

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Exeter Chiefs up against Sale Sharks
Taking Exeter
Exeter 44:16

[kiwiz]

Welsh Premiership
Pontypridd up against Ebbw Vale
Taking Pontypridd
Pontypridd 28:14

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Glasgow Warriors up against Ulster
Taking Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors 16:14

[kiwiz]

Guinness Pro 12
Glasgow Warriors up against Ulster
Taking Ulster +12.5 handicap
Glasgow Warriors 16:14

[kiwiz]

Pacific Nations Cup
Fiji up against Tonga
Taking Fiji
Fiji 30:22

[kiwiz]

Pacific Nations Cup
USA up against Samoa
Taking Samoa
Samoa 21:16

[kiwiz]

Pacific Nations Cup
Canada up against Samoa
Taking Samoa
Samoa 21:20

[kiwiz]

Bledisloe Cup
To Lift The Bledisloe Cup Trophy
Taking NZ
NZ 41:13

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Eastern Province Kings up against Golden Lions
Taking Golden Lions
Golden Lions 51:14

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Golden Lions up against Pumas
Taking Golden Lions
Golden Lions 44:27

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Blue Bulls up against Griquas
Taking Blue Bulls 13+ margin
Blue Bulls 36:12

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Otago up against Canterbury
Taking Canterbury
Canterbury 38:24

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
North Harbour up against Wellington
Taking Wellington
Wellington 43:0

[kiwiz]

Rumoured Sam will return to the NRL next year with South Sydney
But no truth in it according to Sam
Rumour getting stronger
Sam Burgess leaving Rugby Premiership club Bath to return to South Sydney Rabbitohs
Still two years left on a three-year deal with west country side Bath

[kiwiz]

National Rugby Championship
Brisbane City up against Perth Spirit
Taking Brisbane City
Brisbane City 29:16

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Tasman up against Bay Of Plenty
Taking Tasman 13+ margin
Tasman 34:13

[kiwiz]

Heartland Championship
North Otago up against West Coast
Taking North Otago
North Otago 17:16

[kiwiz]

Heartland Championship
Buller up against King Country
Taking Buller
Buller 32:20

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership 7s
Wasps up against Harlequins
Taking Wasps
Wasps 40:14

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Wellington up against Northland
Taking Wellington 13+ margin
Wellington 29:0

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Eastern Province Kings up against Natal Sharks
Taking Natal Sharks
Natal Sharks 24:20

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Eastern Province Kings up against Natal Sharks
Taking Eastern Province Kings +12.5 handicap
Natal Sharks 24:20

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Oyonnax up against Ulster
Taking Ulster

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Racing 92 up against Glasgow
Taking Racing 92

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Racing 92 up against Glasgow
Taking Glasgow +8.5 line

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Saracens up against Toulouse
Taking Saracens

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Northampton up against Scarlets
Taking Northampton

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Northampton up against Scarlets
Taking Scarlets +12.5 line

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Toulon up against Bath
Taking Toulon

[kiwiz]

European Champions Cup
Munster up against Benetton Treviso
Taking Munster 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Enisei-STM up against Connacht
Taking Connacht 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Enisei-STM up against Connacht
Taking Connacht -27.5 line

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Calvisano up against Cardiff Blues
Taking Cardiff Blues 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Calvisano up against Cardiff Blues
Taking Cardiff Blues -28.5 line

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Gloucester up against Zebre
Taking Gloucester 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
Gloucester up against Zebre
Taking Zebre +21.5 line

[kiwiz]

European Challenge Cup
London Irish up against Agen
Taking London Irish 13+ margin

[kiwiz]

ITM Cup
Otago up against Tasman
Taking Tasman
Tasman 34:17

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Blue Bulls up against Free State Cheetahs
Taking Blue Bulls
Blue Bulls 24:17

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Natal Sharks up against Ford Pumas
Taking Natal Sharks
Natal Sharks 27:26

[kiwiz]

Currie Cup
Natal Sharks up against Ford Pumas
Taking Ford Pumas +12.5 handicap
Natal Sharks 27:26

[grizzle]

rugby world cup
nz ($2.50)

that's a winner

[kumite]

Rugby World Cup
as per usual the All Blacks look the team to beat
...

didn't they play well!

[JB1]

Rugby World Cup Winner

New Zealand $2.35
Champagne rugby!

[kiwiz]

RWC
Winning Hemisphere
Taking Southern
Winner NZ

[kiwiz]

RWC
Winning Pool
Taking Pool C
Winner NZ (Pool C)

[kiwiz]

RWC
Pool A Winner
Taking Australia
Winner Australia

[kiwiz]

RWC
Pool B Winner
Taking South Africa
Winner South Africa

[kiwiz]

RWC
Pool C Winner
Taking NZ
Winner NZ

[kiwiz]

RWC
Pool D Winner
Taking Ireland
Winner Ireland

[kiwiz]

RWC
Top Tournament Tryscorer
Taking
Julian Savea @$7.50
Nehe Milner-Skudder @$11
Ben Smith @$13
Waisake Naholo @$15.50
Winner Julian Savea 8 tries

[kiwiz]

RWC
Winner
Betting Without NZ
Taking
Australia @$6
NZ won the cup over runners-up Australia

[kiwiz]

RWC
Top Tryscoring Team
Taking NZ
Most tries scored by a team in the pool stage: 25 by New Zealand
Most tries scored by a team in the knockout stage: 14 by New Zealand

[kiwiz]

RWC
Big 3 (NZ,SA,Eng) up against the field
Taking Big 3
Winner NZ

[kiwiz]

[RWC
Continent of Winner
Taking Oceania
Winner NZ

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Saracens up against Leicester
Taking Saracens

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Gloucester up against London Irish
Taking Gloucester

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Newcastle up against Bath
Taking Bath

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Worcester up against Harlequins
Taking Harlequins

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Sale up against Wasps
Taking Sale +2.5 line

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Glasgow up against Edinburgh
Taking Edinburgh +3.5 line

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Ulster up against Munster
Taking Ulster

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Treviso up against Zebre
Taking Treviso

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Saracens up against Bath
Taking Saracens

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Worcester up against Exeter
Taking Exeter

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Sale up against London Irish
Taking Sale

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Northampton up against Wasps
Taking Northampton

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Northampton up against Wasps
Taking Wasps +12.5 handicap

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Gloucester up against Leicester
Taking Leicester +5.5 line

[kiwiz]

Aviva Premiership
Newcastle up against Harlequins
Taking Harlequins

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Zebre up against Munster
Taking Munster

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Connacht up against Scarlets
Taking Connacht

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Connacht up against Scarlets
Taking Scarlets +8.5 line

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Treviso up against Ulster
Taking Ulster

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Cardiff up against Edinburgh
Taking Edinburgh +5.5 line

[kiwiz]

Pro 12
Ospreys up against Glasgow Warriors
Taking Ospreys

[kiwiz]

Six Nations
Winner
Taking England @$3.00 & Wales @$4.50

[Raystef5845]

As we start this new season in Super Rugby (now 18 teams), we have more than the usual unknowns to deal with. When we had Super 15, it was easy to use the rating for the SA team that was relegated for the newly promoted one. This time, the Southern Kings rejoin Super Rugby but no SA team was dropped. I gave the Southern Kings the rating for last year’s worst team from SA.

This time, we have two new teams to deal with. Since Argentina is usually competitive in the Rugby World Cup, I gave the Jaguars of Argentina the rating of the middle team from last year. Since Japan had trouble putting a team together, I gave the Sunwolves the rating of last year’s worst team. The Sunwolves open at home. We’ll see how they do. (What is a sunwolf anyway?)

It will take about four weeks for the ratings to be adjusted due to last year’s team’s changing ability and the new teams seeking the right level. Be very careful with your bets until we know who is who this season.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Welcome back Ray :)

[Raystef5845]

Thanks for the welcome back!

In week 1, the problem teams were the new teams, the Jaguars, Sunwolves and S. Kings. The Jaguars did as expected when I put them at the rating of the middle team. The other two did worse than expected as to score difference. I had put the S. Kings at the level of the worst SA team, while the Sunwolves were assumed to be the worst of all. The Sunwolves and S. Kings adjusted downward while their opponents adjusted upward. In week 1, 67% of the predicted winners did win.

Ratings adjust a lot at the start of the season. We’ll probably figure out what a sunwolf looks like too. By week 4, the ratings should have settled out. Please bet very cautiously until then.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

My system made some large adjustments to the ratings of some of the new teams and to a few of the old teams during the first two weeks. The probabilities seem to be pretty accurate now. Of course there is always the unexpected, like the Lions beating the Chiefs for the first time in NZ. The Lions play their third consecutive away game against the Highlanders.

Be cautious when betting during the first four weeks.

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

My probabilities seem to be right on. We were supposed to get 63% of the winners right so far and we did get 63% right. The ratings have settled down. I suggest being cautious for week four as always, just to be safe. I think we are otherwise good to go for 2016.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There were a lot of upsets last week. The good news is that the upsets fine tuned this year’s ratings, especially for the new teams. The Sunwolves seem to be rather erratic. The match last week with the Rebels was at home for the Sunwolves, yet they lost by 26 points. The week before that, they played as expected at home.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

After week 4, I mentioned that the ratings seemed to have stabilized. That looks about right since Week 5 went well. My predicted favourites won 7 from 8 (88%), including a win by my favourite Stormers, who were the Bookie’s underdogs, cashing a value bet for Stormers supporters.

The two bottom teams in the computer ratings play this week: the S. Kings are home to the Sunwolves. That may seem kind of boring. No worries. The top two computer teams play too: The Brumbies are home to the Chiefs. All 7 home teams are favoured.

Good luck with Week 6.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The predictions have been remarkably accurate so far as to the probabilities, score differences and score totals. There were only small differences from the bookmaker offering so far. Last week, the Southern Kings and Rebels rewarded supporters who cashed small value bets for a small overall profit (which is still better than the alternative).

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

So Im guessing youve tipped the sharks canes reds and kings

[Raystef5845]

So Im guessing youve tipped the sharks canes reds and kings

No, I tipped the Force, Jaguars, Reds and Lions, but not by much. The other games did not offer an advantage.

[Raystef5845]

In a way, we had a perfect week. Five of my seven favorites won. Although my underdogs, the Reds and the Lions won the other two matches, their supporters cashed value bets. So far, my odd have been remarkably close to the bookmakers, so bets have been relatively small.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

So Im guessing youve tipped the sharks canes reds and kings

Basically, to test a bet, you multiply my probability by the bookmaker's decimal odds for a moneyline bet. If the product is more than one, that would be a candidate bet. The amount to bet depends on how much much more than one and on the decimal odds. Sometimes it's best to tip a favorite, and other times the underdog. You will find betting methods just after my predictions each week.

Ray

[jimmyz]

Appreciate your ongoing input Ray. Any early thoughts - Conference winners, Finalists, winning Conference / Team? Thanks.

[Raystef5845]

Appreciate your ongoing input Ray. Any early thoughts - Conference winners, Finalists, winning Conference / Team? Thanks.
Good question.

I think the Chiefs, Brumbies, Crusaders and Highlanders will be in with the finals Hurricanes, Blues and Rebels fighting it out for the fifth spot.

I think the Stormers and Lions will be in the finals with the Sharks and Bulls fighting it out for the third spot. The schedule for the last two or three weeks will make the difference.

Cheers,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

All seven of my favourites won last week. There are two games this week that are almost exactly even. The W. Force are favoured by 0.01 points. I’d call that pretty even.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Got all the match winner correct this week although missed two margins
Would never have tipped the cheetahs to score 90 odd points and missd the reds game..had the bulls 1 to 12

[Raystef5845]

I’m a bit late this week. I was away for a few days.

Week 9 was rather strange. After all seven of my favourites had won during week 8, only four of eight won during week 9. The Sunwolves won convincingly, their only win so far. The Western Force continue to underwhelm. The Sharks won as my underdog; but that was OK, because Sharks supporters cashed a value bet.

Good luck with week 10,

Ray Stefani

[grizzle]

Good question.

I think the Chiefs, Brumbies, Crusaders and Highlanders will be in with the finals Hurricanes, Blues and Rebels fighting it out for the fifth spot.

I think the Stormers and Lions will be in the finals with the Sharks and Bulls fighting it out for the third spot. The schedule for the last two or three weeks will make the difference.

Cheers,

Ray
thanks for that ray
your feedback, if anything changes, would also be appreciated

[Raystef5845]

Last week, five of my seven favourites won. Let’s keep up that success.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

thanks for that ray
your feedback, if anything changes, would also be appreciated

With more games played, here’s how I update my view of the eventual playoffs.

From the Australasian group, the Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders are very likely to make the playoffs. There will probably be just one Australian team. It’s close between the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs.

In South Africa, the Stormers, Lions and Bulls are very likely to be the playoff teams. The Sharks have an outside chance to displace the Lions.

Ray

[Raystef5845]

In week 11, five of my seven favourites own. That included my favourite Sharks who were the bookmakers’ underdog, so Sharks followers cashed a value bet.

Good luck with week 12.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Week 12 went well. There was one game that I rated even. Of the other seven, my favourite won six and tied one. My favourite Highlanders were the bookie's underdog, so Highlanders supporters cashed a value bet.

Good luck with lucky week 13.

Ray Stefani

[grizzle]

With more games played, here’s how I update my view of the eventual playoffs.

From the Australasian group, the Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders are very likely to make the playoffs. There will probably be just one Australian team. It’s close between the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs.

In South Africa, the Stormers, Lions and Bulls are very likely to be the playoff teams. The Sharks have an outside chance to displace the Lions.

Ray
cheers ray :)

[Raystef5845]

My favourites won 6 of 7 last week and 70% for the season. That’s pretty high accuracy. I’ve only had 70% or more right in 2 of 15 seasons. For professional sports, getting 2/3 (67%) right is good prediction.

Good luck with week 14

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Thanx Ray for your tipping info..sure has been a big help

[Raystef5845]

For week 14, 7 of my 8 favourites won, including the Waratahs who were the bookie underdogs. The Waratahs rewarded followers with a value bet cashed. That brings my accuracy for the last 3 weeks for my favourites winning to 20 from 23.

Early in the season, I suggested that the Stormers, Lions and Bulls were likely to make the playoffs, whilst the Sharks had a chance to pass the Bulls (they had consistently higher computer ratings). In fact the Sharks have passed the Bulls. I wrote that The Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders should advance along with just one Aussie team among the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs. The Brumbies and Waratahs are fighting it out.

Week 15 isn’t until July. I’ll be away during July so this might be my last set of predictions for the year. If that is so, all the best to everyone!

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Well done Ray
Thanks buddy

[Raystef5845]

Hi Everyone,

I'm sorry that my travelling was such that I couldn't send out the last three weeks of predictions. I last sent Round 15 where all 9 of my favourites won.

The top 4 of my computer-rated teams are the 4 semifinalists. The Hurricanes and Chiefs are paired and have nearly the same ratings. The Lions and Highlanders are paired and also have about the same ratings. The predictions come down to home advantage which is a bit higher for international matches than for domestic matches, which is why the Hurricanes are favoured by 3 in an all NZ match whilst the Lions are favoured by 5 in a SA-NZ match up.

Good luck with the two semis. These should be two great matches.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We are down to the last Super Rugby match of the new alignment. Last week, both of my favourites won. Altogether, 72% of my favourites won this season. Predicted score differences and predicted score totals have been the most accurate ever. Last week, Lions supporters cashed a value bet.

The final fixture seems fair. The top Australasian team from the final table will meet the top South African team from that final table. That’s what SANZAR wanted.

Good luck with the final and with whatever else you do until next season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[jimmyz]

Well done Ray, as I've said before, appreciate your ongoing input.

[Raystef5845]

Thanks jimmyz for the kind words. See you next season!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi everyone,

It’s time to get started with a new Super Rugby season. Last season was my 17th season of Super Rugby. I picked the head-to-head winner in 72% of the matches. Only two past seasons were better. There was at least one surprise. Now that there are 18 teams with a new 15 match season, the domestic home advantage (among same-country teams) almost disappeared last season. I think the explanation is that when a team comes home after an extended trip to another country, they are rewarded with a home match, which is sometimes against a team from the same nation that had been in-country the preceding week. That means the home team may be the one with travel fatigue. Over a season, that scheduling quirk has affected the domestic home matches. I changed my various parameters based on what I learned from the new Super 18 format.

Be fairly conservative while betting for the first three or four weeks. I start where we left off last season. Some teams may have changed. Also, there are new international matchups compared to last season. The ratings will soon sort themselves out.

Good luck with Week 1!

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Nice tips Ray. ..will deff follow your guide a little closer this season..was a great help last yr

[kiwiz]

Good to see you're back Ray ;)

[thurston]

Good tips again, Ray. I'm looking forward to things settling down after Week 4.

[Raystef5845]

We had a good first week for head-to-head matches because 8 of my 9 favourites won. The only loser was when the Sharks could not hold their lead and lost by 2.

Week 2 has two of the most unique predictions ever. I have an equation to keep the rating adjustment from getting too big when something odd happens. Still, the perfect storm happened because the greatest adjustment happens in week 1 compounded by the Hurricanes having the maximum possible rating increase after winning 82-17 while the Rebels had the maximum possible rating drop when they lost 18-56. In week 2 they play each other. I have never seen a 55 point predicted score difference before. It’s a statistical quirk, which is why I advise being careful when betting for the first 4 weeks.

At the other extreme, the Blues are only hundredths of a point better than the Chiefs so the game is as even as it could be. There is nothing boring about Super rugby.

God luck with crazy week 2.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I thought I was being outrageous last week when I predicted that the Hurricanes would beat the Rebels 61-6, by 55 points. That turned out to have been a pretty good call because the Hurricanes won 71-6.

So far, my favourites have won 78% of the matches. I called three upsets so far.

We’ve seen team scores of 56, 71 and 83 points so far. Will that continue? We’ll see!

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

My higher rated teams have won 77% of the matches so far. There have been some huge rating differences with huge predicted score differences that are settling out nicely. As I always caution, bet carefully through week 4 (this weekend). Ratings should have settled out by the end of this weekend.

Cheers,

Ray

[johnniebum]

Thanx for your thoughts on the first 3 rounds ..Have been very insightful

[Raystef5845]

Thanks to many of you for the kind words.

So far so good. My favourites have cooperated and won as expected in 79% of the matches so far, including five upset wins. The really huge rating swings due to those huge early season score differences have settled. The probabilities that I use to set odds have been pretty close so far. Let’s have a great rest-of-the season.

Good luck with week 5.

Ray Stefani

[woody]

Let’s have a great rest-of-the season.

Absolutely :)
Cheers Ray

[Raystef5845]

Seven of my eight favourites won this week, bringing the season success rate to 81%. Of course, the only upset among my favourites was a lost value bet, blamed on the Brumbies. The Sharks did come through to cash a value bet for supporters, so we were basically even for Week 6. The predicted score margins were surprisingly accurate: just off by 5 points per game.

It looks like we will have a lot of one-sided games coming up in Week 6 (or some big upsets).

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

My favourites have been very cooperative. Fo rall 6 weeks, they have won 84% of the matches. For the last three weeks, they have won 93% of their matches. On the other hand, the bookie odds have been very close to mine so there have been few value bets. I have been focusing on money line bets.

You might look into points start bets. Suppose the Hurricanes are offered at -6.5 while I have them to win by 10. You could book Hurricanes -6.5 and have an edge of 3.5 points. Suppose the Reds are offered in a different game at +10.5 while I have their opponent to win by 6. You could book the Reds + 10.5 and have an edge of 4.5 points. I suggest looking for an edge of 3.5 points or more. The payoff is around 1.85 so if you pick in the right direction at least 60% of the time, you win at least .6*1.85 = 1.11, at least an 11% profit.

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Again awesome tipping mate..have also been doing margin or tribet selections with your tips...going well

[kiwiz]

My favourites have been very cooperative. For the last three weeks, they have won 93% of their matches.
Ray Stefani
Cheers Ray

[jake]

..super rugby competition to be cut from 18 to 15 teams for 2018
..two south african teams will go & one from australia

[Raystef5845]

Five of my seven favourites won last week making 82% for the season. There was a head-to-head value-bet winner thanks to the Sunwolves last week.

My fair odds are getting so close to the bookies for head-to-head bets that I am looking around the room for a hidden camera. Last week I looked at points difference start value bets with at least a 2.5 point advantage giving or taking points. Three of four value bets cashed.

Thanks johnniebum for the kind words.

Jake mentions changes for 2018. There is less balance this year, so some teams obviously should go. I hate to see Australia losing one, so the South Africa conglomerate gets six.

Good luck with week 8!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Ok, so there will be three conferences of 5 each in 2018. The “Australian Conference” will have four actual Australian teams plus the Sunwolves.

Think about travel. When each of the five New Zealand Conference teams plays its 4 away conference games, the games are all in NZ. When the four Australian teams play their four “conference” away games, one will be in Japan. Of course, the Sunwolves will have terminal jet lag, as now, so no wonder they are worst, but they are not going to be dropped. Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

I know it comes down to business, but there is something to be said to tradition too.

[Raystef5845]

There is no “A” for Argentina or “J” for Japan in SANZAR. How about calling it SANZAJAR, which doubles for SANity iZ all AJAR. Works for me.

Ray Stefani

[jake]

Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

..both based in staunch afl states

[Raystef5845]

For week 8, I couldn’t find any head-to-head value bets again. The payoffs for the favourites have been are too small to bother with and the underdogs weren’t likely enough to win to risk money on them. I did find 11 starting-points-difference bets that looked good starting with week 5. 7 of the 11 cashed. The new alignment continues to produce a lot of one-sided games. My favourites have won 79% of the games so far. That’s my highest ever through week 8.

It was interesting that the talk last week was about SANZAR moving the Sunwolves to the Australian Conference next year as part of going back to 15 teams. I missed the part where Japan became the 8th state. So, either the Western Force or the Rebels are to go. The Rebels responded by upsetting the Brumbies. The pathetic Sunwolves responded by losing 50-3. New Zealand bookmakers have cut off taking bets on the Highlanders to beat the Sunwolves.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Thanks for this great work Ray. Been going well on the betting front using this information.

As a matter of interest, do you do something similar for the UK premiership soccer league (EPL)?

[Raystef5845]

Those point difference bets continue to be a good idea. Three of five point-start-difference value bets cashed last week, bringing the total to 11 of 17 since week 5, a 21% profit on turnover. My favorite team won 6 and tied 1 out of 8 matches, bringing season accuracy to 80%, a new high for this date.

The next matches are in two weeks.

Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.

Good luck when week 10 rolls around.

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.I'd really appreciate you doing this Ray for next season. Would like to give it a crack

Cheers

[Fatcat]

The next matches are in two weeks. Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Courier New"; panose-1:2 7 3 9 2 2 5 2 4 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText {mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-link:"Plain Text Char"; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** span.PlainTextChar {mso-style-name:"Plain Text Char"; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Plain Text"; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ascii-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;**** @page WordSection1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 90.0pt 72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;**** div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;**** --></style>Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?

[Raystef5845]

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I forgot to upload the predictions in my last send.

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Courier New"; panose-1:2 7 3 9 2 2 5 2 4 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText {mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-link:"Plain Text Char"; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** span.PlainTextChar {mso-style-name:"Plain Text Char"; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Plain Text"; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ascii-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;**** @page WordSection1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 90.0pt 72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;**** div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;**** --></style>Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?

Oops, I made an error in writing that there was a two-week gap.

I use the symbol R to mean the decimal odds. Rb means the bookie's decimal odds, like for SportsBet. Rf means my fair odds.

[Raystef5845]

Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " <style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Courier New"; panose-1:2 7 3 9 2 2 5 2 4 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;**** /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** p.MsoPlainText, li.MsoPlainText, div.MsoPlainText {mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-link:"Plain Text Char"; margin:0cm; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** span.PlainTextChar {mso-style-name:"Plain Text Char"; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-locked:yes; mso-style-link:"Plain Text"; font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ascii-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Courier New"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;**** .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;**** @page WordSection1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 90.0pt 72.0pt 90.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;**** div.WordSection1 {page:WordSection1;**** --></style>Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?

I can check your Excel spread sheet. Just email me at Raystefani@aol.com and attach it with an explanation.

[Raystef5845]

Last weekend all 8 of my favourites won. I have only had one season of 16 when my favourites won more than 70% of their matches. So far, they have won 81%.

Last week, only one match of the 8 had a predicted point difference under 11. Next week, 5 of the 7 matches have a predicted point difference under 11. Next week ought to be the most interesting so far.

Good luck with week 11,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Week 12 was the first week in a while with some competition. I counted three upsets instead of many one-sided wins.

I’d like to tell you how skillful it was that I picked the Reds to beat the Rebels 29-24 and they did win 29-24; but, I can’t keep a straight face. Getting close is skill. Nailing it right on does require luck.

There were some successful score difference bets in week 12.

Good luck with (lucky) week 13. I’m not superstitious, because that would be bad luck.

Ray Stefani

[Bellamon]

Thanks Ray great work with your Super rugby Picks.

[Raystef5845]

Thanks to Bellamon for the encouragement.

Week 13 did turn out to be lucky. Some seasons go by without a single week with all the winners being picked perfectly. Last week was the third perfect week this season. We now have an 81% record for the season.

What is sad for fans that pay good money to attend a game is that teams seem to get behind and give up. The winner scored over 50 points in four games last week. The average for both teams in a game is usually about 54 points.

Good luck on week 14.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I thought week 14 was more competitive than we have seen lately. We picked the Western Force to win in an upset compared to bookie odds and they did. The Brumbies were my underdog but had good bookie odds, supporting a bet on them which paid off. Still, we have teams getting behind and giving up like the Sunwolves and the Southern Kings.

There will only be 15 games from now until 8 July, followed by the last nine games to end the regular season.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi to all,

The next games aren’t until 30 June and 1 July. After that I will be away, so this will be my last send. I hope you enjoyed getting these picks as much as I enjoyed saying hi each week.

I look forward to Super Rugby going back to 15 teams next season. I think it’s much more fun when there are three five-team conferences and each team plays their other four conference teams twice each (8 games) and then plays 8 of the other 10 teams, once each. That means the average team goes from just playing 74% of the other teams in this season’s system to playing 86% next year (12 of 14).

Good luck. See you next season!

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Good work as always Ray
Much appreciated

[Sands]

Ditto Ray

[johnniebum]

Thanx Ray for all your insight and great tipping for this season

[grizzle]

I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.

Ray Stefani
you would have my interest, ray

[Fatcat]

you would have my interest, rayI'd definitely be in Ray

[Fatcat]

Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks

[DCFC]

I'd definitely be in Ray
ditto Ray

[westman]

Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

I know it comes down to business, but there is something to be said to tradition too.
The Australian Rugby Union have decided to discontinue the Western Force's licence

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks
[/i]
I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani

[DCFC]

good one Ray

[Fatcat]

Thanks heaps Ray

[Raystef5845]

I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani

Hi to all,

As I promised, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I include a page to explain my soccer predictions. I’ll also post this in the soccer section. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi guys. I thought I would post my EPL predictions here again.

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled. An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray StefaniHi Ray

Any chance of getting week 9?

Cheers

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Any chance of getting week 9?

Cheers
I just posted week 8 on the soccer section last week. I'll post on rugby and soccer from now on so you won't miss any games. There were no games last week because of European World Cup Qualifying, so the week 8 games are coming up in hours.

Cheers,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

I posted this in the soccer section lst week; but I want every one to know a simple betting trick so you break even when your team draws and win money when your team wins.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

[Raystef5845]

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

[Mark]

Ray, how long has this little gem been hiding under Rugby Union? You should start your own thread.

[Moderator 2]

Ray, how long has this little gem been hiding under Rugby Union? You should start your own thread.
Hi Ray, may be time to just post your EPL selections on the existing Soccer thread, as you are also doing now.

[Raystef5845]

As many of you already know, I have been posting my Super Rugby predictions on this thread for several years. FATCAT asked if I would resume my EPL soccer predictions which I used to post but had discontinued. That was a great idea from FATCAT , so I located my old software, updated it, and ran last EPL season to get beginning values for this season.

For your convenience, I have been posting my EPL predictions here and under ‘Soccer”. I thank Mark for liking theses posts, having just noticed them under “Rugby Union”. Now an Administrator want me to just post under Soccer. I want be cooperative and to not misuse the system, so I will post my EPL predictions under soccer from now on, as requested by the Administrator! Look for them there. Good luck to all.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

2018 Super Rugby Winner

Hurricanes 5.00
Crusaders 5.00
Lions 7.00
Chiefs 9.00
Highlanders 9.50
Blues 17.00
Brumbies 21.00
Stormers 21.00
Waratahs 26.00
Sharks 26.00
Bulls 34.00
Los Jaguares 51.00
Rebels 51.00
Reds 67.00
Sunwolves 501.00

[kiwiz]

2018 Super Rugby Winner

Hurricanes 5.00
Crusaders 5.00
Lions 7.00
Chiefs 9.00
Highlanders 9.50
Blues 17.00
Brumbies 21.00
Stormers 21.00
Waratahs 26.00
Sharks 26.00
Bulls 34.00
Los Jaguares 51.00
Rebels 51.00
Reds 67.00
Sunwolves 501.00
Hi Ray
Any team/s worth an early punt?
Cheers

[Fatcat]

Hi to all,

The next games aren’t until 30 June and 1 July. After that I will be away, so this will be my last send. I hope you enjoyed getting these picks as much as I enjoyed saying hi each week.

I look forward to Super Rugby going back to 15 teams next season. I think it’s much more fun when there are three five-team conferences and each team plays their other four conference teams twice each (8 games) and then plays 8 of the other 10 teams, once each. That means the average team goes from just playing 74% of the other teams in this season’s system to playing 86% next year (12 of 14).

Good luck. See you next season!

Ray StefaniHi Ray

Will you be giving us your awesome predictions again this Super Rugby season?

Cheers
Fatcat

[UselessBettor]

I would also like to see them again this year.

[Raystef5845]

Hi everyone. It's great to say hi again.

The new Super Rugby season starts with 2 matches in South Africa, followed by seven more about a week later. I am posting the two South Africa matches now

We are back to 15 teams. As when we had 15 teams before, there is a double round robin in each division, making for 8 matches. Then come matches against 8 of the other 10 teams. Travel isn’t balanced. When the New Zealand teams play away in their division, all away matches are domestic. Each Australia team has to travel to Japan for one away division match and each South Africa team has to travel to Argentina for one away division match. I hate to see the Force displaced, by Sanzar didn’t ask me or anyone in Australia for a suggestion.

Good luck. Let’s bet carefully for the first four weeks or so as the teams settle into the new season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

This time we actually have a full slate of 7 matches. Last time I could only give you 2 in South Africa.

Good luck. Be cautious for the first few weeks. I start week 1 where we left off in 2017. Sometimes teams can change a bit over the break.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I always caution about betting very cautiously for the first four weeks because I start each season where we left off at the end of the last season. Being cautious for four weeks allows for teams getting better or worse over the break. Wow, the Rebels really have improved. Last season their opponents outscored then by 333 points and the Rebels were nearly dropped from Super Rugby. Fortunately for the Rebels, the Force got dropped instead. In Week 2, the Rebels beat the Reds in 45-19. Assuming they didn’t poison the Reds’ food, the Rebels may be competitive this season. We’ll know soon enough.

Here comes Week 3. Week 1 wasn’t exactly a full week, as only 2 matches were played, but we’ll count it as a “week” anyway.

News from PyeongChang: Australia has 3 medals and the USA has 23. However, the USA has 14 times the population, so adjusting for population, actually, Australia wins 42 to 21. Way to go! Also, Great Britain has 5 medals, but only 2 were earned standing up. Australia wins 3-2 on standing-up medals.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

You should be very cautious betting for another week or two. The ratings are still adjusting to teams having changed over the break. It would be a massive understatement to say the rebels have improved. They won one game all last season and are two from two so far in 2018. After week 5, the ratings should be a pretty good judge of this year’s teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Bellamon]

Thanks Ray for all your hard work.

[Raystef5845]

The Rebels keep right on amazing us. At the end of last season (when the only won once) they had the second worst score difference (-333). Now they have won three from three and have the best score difference. The message seems to be to never give up.

The ratings are still adjusting. The Rebels rating is moving up from being so low last season. Those that lost to the Rebels this season when the Rebels rating was low are also moving up.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Wow Ray ..there have def been some hard games this season..thanx again for the tips each wk mate

[Raystef5845]

Wow Ray ..there have def been some hard games this season..thanx again for the tips each wk mate

Thanks Johnnie,

It has been hard so far. There were a couple of big jolts. Going from 18 back to 15 changed the mix of domestic and international matches and conference line-ups. Apparently, Japan is now part of Australia. Mainly, the Rebels are much better than last year so the ratings have to adjust. I think we are pretty close to having a good line on all the teams.

Good luck guys!

Ray

[Raystef5845]

The home teams won 6 from 7, which made for some upsets. Let's see what Week 6 has in store for us.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Week 6 turned out to be perfect. Five of six favourites won, with the Hurricanes supporters cashing a value bet. Then, the Jaguars beat my favourite Lions, but that upset cashed a big value bet paying 4.2 to Jaguars supporters. We could use a few more weeks like that. Let’s starts with Week 7!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi everybody,

We are moving right along. My favourites won 5 of the 6 games (bringing us to 10 of the last 12). Two more value bets were cashed by Chiefs and Bulls supporters.

Good luck with week 8,

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Nice tipping there Ray..

[thebeans]

ray just stumbled on your thread and and will later look over all 500+pages (looked over the latest attachment and wow congrats) am I right in saying you think Waratahs will win Sunwolves. think I have that right
thanks

[Raystef5845]

ray just stumbled on your thread and and will later look over all 500+pages (looked over the latest attachment and wow congrats) am I right in saying you think Waratahs will win Sunwolves. think I have that right
thanks

You read my prediction correctly. I had the Waratahs as 68% likely to win. They did win by and by 31. In fact, all six of my favourites won this week

[Raystef5845]

We are moving right along. All six favourites won this week, bringing the total to 16 from 18 over the last three weeks. I think we can all live with that. Let's see what week 9 has in store for us.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We have had 83% of our favourites win in the last 4 weeks. I like that trend.

Last week, my fair odds were surprisingly close to the bookies. Maybe they are reading our forum too. The only value bet was to take the Jaguars at 4.2 when I had 3.32. That would have cashed but also would have been a really questionable bet on an underdog.

Good luck as we reach week 10.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Only two of may favourites lost last week; but the two were the Waratahs and the Brumbies who were both upset while playing at home. Sadly, except for the mid computer-table Waratahs, the Australian teams are generally at the bottom of my ladder. For week 11, I have all the Australian conference teams losing that are in action. I’d like to be wrong.

Good luck with Week 11
,
Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I had to check twice that the Jaguars actually won in New Zealand. On the other hand (besides five fingers), by winning they gave their supporters a cashed value bet.

The Sunwolves were predictable bad again. I had predicted a 40-16 loss to the Hurricanes and the actual score was a bit worse, 43-15.

I will go out on a limb, and predict that the Sunwolves will not lose this week, mostly because they don't play.

Good luck with Week 12.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Half the week 12 games resulted in upsets. One upset was OK for Sharks supporters who cashed a value bet.

We have lucky week 13 coming up!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Week 13 did turn out to be lucky. My favourites won 6 of 7. I had the bookie underdog Sunwolves as my favourite. When they won, that cashed a nice value bet for Sunwolves supporters. Hard as it is to believe, the Sunwolves scored 1/4 of their season points in that one game, winning 63-28. See, a positive attitude worked (along with lots of luck).

Good luck with Week 14.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Week 14 was our kind of week. My favourites won 5 of the 7 games. Even better is that my underdog Sunwolves and Waratahs both won, which cashed value bets for supporters. That's two weeks in a row that the underdog Sunwolves won and cashed value bets for supporters.

Let's have a good week 15 too!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The next games after week 16 are not be until the end of June. I will be traveling, so my predictions for Week 17 will be late in that week.

I estimate that we have had 20% profit on turnover starting with week 4. Let's keep it up!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Thanx again for the tips Ray..you always go well with the rugby..enjoy your trip away

[johnniebum]

Hope you are enjoying your Holiday Ray..

[Raystef5845]

Thanks for the kind words.

I am back and here are my predictions for Week 18.

Good luck to all,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

It was nice to be back with Super Rugby Week 18. All 7 of my favourites won, including the Reds who were the bookies underdog. That made for a nice value bet for Reds supporters.

Here we go with week 19, which ends the regular season, leading into the playoffs.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Back at the start of this season, I mentioned that the first few weeks might rough, as old ratings needed to be adjusted and there was a new alignment. The first weeks were a bit rough; but we sure ended strongly after that.

Of my last 14 favourites, 13 won. Starting with week four, of the 9 games where I picked a bookie upset, 7 were correct. I checked 99 games starting with week 4. I found 37 value bets, 14 of which cashed for a profit on turnover of 38%, the highest I have had in 23 seasons, 19 of rugby.

If you take the computer ratings for my top 8 and move one from each conference to the top, you get exactly the order of the 8 seeded playoff teams.

I hope you have enjoyed the season. I am giving you my quarterfinal predictions. I will be away for the rest of the season, so good luck to all

See you next season.

Cheers!

Ray Stefani

[johnniebum]

Thanx again Ray..top tipping mate..have a great break..and carn thr Wallabies

[Fatcat]

Hi Ray. Will be doing odds on this years rugby championship?

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray. Will be doing odds on this years rugby championship?

Hi Fatcat and all,

I don't have any national team ratings of my own to use for The Rugby Championship. I have looked at the World Rugby (used to be IRB) ratings. For 5 Rugby World Cups and 204 matches, their higher-rated team (including their home advantage) won 86%. Pretty darn good. The system is intended to give the probability of the higher-rated team winning, after adding three rating points to the home team.

Thanks to your question, I used World Rugby ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina to calculate the probability of the home and away teams winning and then the fair odds from that probability. I am attaching the odds for the 12 matcups.

I have never looked at the accuracy of the win odds against the bookies, but if the higher rated team wins 86% of the time, that's encouraging.

According to the World Rugby ratings, New Zealand would win all 6, Australia and South Africa would each win 3 and Argentina would be shut out.

I will still be rooting for the Wallabies, ratings or not.

Ray

[Raystef5845]

The World Rugby (IRB) rating system seems to provide accurate odds. I mentioned that the Rugby World rating favourite, adjusted for home advantage, won 86% or five rugby union world cups. Their favourites won both game in round one of the Rugby Champioship. The odds using my derivation of the World Rugby equations were generally a bit higher than bookmaker decimal odds, which we would expect, given that bookmaker odds are set to make a profit. Hats off to Rugby World ratings.

I am attaching the calculations again for all 12 games.

Cheers,

Ray

[grizzle]

cheers ray

[kiwiz]

Thanks Ray for your input once again
Crusaders win their 9th title
Champs!

[Raystef5845]

World Rugby has adjusted their ratings. I took the new ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina and recalculated the predictions for rounds 3-6. If ratings are adjusted again, I will then update any un-played matches. Here are all 12 predictions, arranged by round. So far, three of the four matches have gone as Rugby World ratings predicted. Argentina upset South Africa in the other match.

New Zealand looks pretty strong so far. I would say that the outlook is all black for the others, but might not be punny.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The World Rugby federation updated their ratings after rounds 3 and 4. Round 4 created changes since South Africa upset New Zealand playing away and Argentine upset Australia playing away. I am sending the new predictions and odds for rounds 5 and 6, using the new World Rugby ratings . There were no value bets for the first 8 games.

[Sands]

Cheers Ray