Rugby Union

[Raystef5845]

I think were learned that the official Rugby World rantings are pretty accurate at setting odds. I posted what the fair odds would be, using Rugby World's ratings. If we discounted the fair odds by 10% or so, we got almost exactly the bookmaker odds. There are two sides to that issue though. Maybe the Rugby World ratings do give good probabilities (I put the formula on the odds sheets I posted) OR maybe book makers use the same ratings to set odds that would balance the books if a lot of batters also yanked out their calculators and cranked away at the official Rugby World ratings.

Before the matches started the ratings suggested that NZ should win 6 (they won 5 after being upset by SA); SA should (and did) win 3 (with an upset win and upset loss); Australia should win 3 but won 2 after being upset by Argentina and Argentina should win none but won two in upsets. The higher rated teams won 75% of the matches, which is good prediction. NZ earned four bonuses.

It was definitely exciting.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

It was definitely exciting.

Thanks Ray. Was well worth the watch.

[Fatcat]

Back at the start of this season, I mentioned that the first few weeks might rough, as old ratings needed to be adjusted and there was a new alignment. The first weeks were a bit rough; but we sure ended strongly after that.


I hope you have enjoyed the season. I am giving you my quarterfinal predictions. I will be away for the rest of the season, so good luck to all

See you next season.

Cheers!

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat

[Sands]

Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Ditto Ray

[Raystef5845]

Ditto Ray

Thanks for the kind words guys. I will definitely crank up the good old computer and we'll be off to another fun season. I am looking forward to it!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat

Darn right. The tips will be coming your way soon!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby. SANZAR has changed the system few times recently, but, thankfully, the system in place for 2019 is the same as for 2018.


I change various parameters in my method based on results. We had a great year in 2018, so not much changed in my model .


I begin 2019 with the team ratings from the end of 2018. In case some teams have changed from last year, be cautious for the first three or four weeks as my system adjusts ratings.


One thing I love about Super Rugby is that they beat the heck out of each other for 80 minutes, shake hands and go out for a pint afterwards as friends. If only our politicians could do that!


Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Cheers Ray

[kiwiz]

Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby.
Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani
Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining

[Raystef5845]

Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining

That will be a great game to watch. I like Sonny Bills' style.

Ray

[Raystef5845]

What home advantage? The home teams won 1 and lost 6. Also, there were 4 upsets in 7 games. That's why I always suggest being very conservative for the first 3 or 4 weeks. The ratings have to adjust for changes since last season and also to any early season oddities like 6 home losses in 7 games.

That Crusaders-Blues game was as awesome as we thought!

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

That Crusaders-Blues game was as awesome as we thought!

Ray Stefani
And pretty dramatic with Harry Plummer missing two late shots at goal
Still,,some good value if you took the Blues with a bit of start

[Raystef5845]

I was curious to see how the Blues would perform after a great showing against the Crusaders last week, when they gained 7 rating points., making them a converted try better than last season. Still, I favoured the Sharks in Round 2 while the bookmakers took the Blues. The Sharks won 27-12, so maybe the Blues still have a ways to go. We'll see against the Jaguars whom I favour by 7 at home in Round 3.

Cheers,

Ray

[kiwiz]

I was curious to see how the Blues would perform after a great showing against the Crusaders last week, when they gained 7 rating points., making them a converted try better than last season. Still, I favoured the Sharks in Round 2 while the bookmakers took the Blues. The Sharks won 27-12, so maybe the Blues still have a ways to go. We'll see against the Jaguars whom I favour by 7 at home in Round 3.

Cheers,

Ray
The Blues were a bit disappointing Ray,,perhaps a bit flat after last weeks effort
But they didn't play that badly & I thought the final score flattered the home side

[kiwiz]

We'll see against the Jaguars whom I favour by 7 at home in Round 3.

Cheers,

Ray
Yeah,,watching that game now Ray
Jaguars leading 11-9 half time :(

[Raystef5845]

Here are the biggest movers after three rounds, compared to last year's final ratings. The Bulls gained 11.9 rating points followed by the Reds (8.5), Blues (6.6), Rebels (6.5) and Sunwolves (6.1,) who beat the Chiefs, paying 10.00 to Sunwolves supporters brave enough to support them at Chiefs. At the other end, the Chiefs have dropped 23.9 rating points and are now bottom for ratings and bottom in the combined Super Rugby table. Dropping that many rating points must be some sort of record in futility.

Let’s see what Round 4 has in store. The improved Blues host the improved Sunwolves.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I always suggest that it takes 3 or 4 weeks for the ratings to adjust. After 3 weeks, my favourites just barely had a winning record and the home teams had a losing record. Round 4 showed that ratings had adjusted. All 7 of my favourites won and all 7 home teams won. Looks like we are on our way.

Good luck with Round 5,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Let’s see what Round 4 has in store. The improved Blues host the improved Sunwolves.
Ray Stefani
Blues finally on the board
Rieko Ioane (four tries) inspired the Blues to much-needed victory

[Sands]

All 7 of my favourites won and all 7 home teams won. Looks like we are on our way.

Good luck with Round 5,

Ray Stefani
Well done Ray

[Sands]

Super Rugby winner
Crusaders now in the red with most bookies

[Raystef5845]

My heart goes out to the families that lost loved ones in the Christchurch shootings. Cancelling the Hurricanes-Crusaders match was the right thing to do to honour the dead and allow the Christchurch-based Crusaders (and all of us) to grieve. Let’s agree to live our lives the way those that died would have lived theirs if only they could. My son told me that me that after being an army battalion surgeon in combat zones.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

"It is expected that SANZAAR will announce on Friday that the Sunwolves will be removed from Super Rugby only three years after their inclusion. As part of more revamping, Super Rugby will abolish the conference system and return to a round-robin format where everyone plays each other once."

Source:RugbyPass

[Raystef5845]

"It is expected that SANZAAR will announce on Friday that the Sunwolves will be removed from Super Rugby only three years after their inclusion. As part of more revamping, Super Rugby will abolish the conference system and return to a round-robin format where everyone plays each other once."

Source:RugbyPass

I wish we all could meet at a pub and have a great discussion about that press release. We could say a lot of things that ought not be printed online.

I didn’t think the Super Rugby system was broken enough (or at all) to need fixing when SANZAR added the Sunwolves and Jaguars, but I did understand the idea of tapping the Asian audience. OK, then why stop now of all times. Sure, the Sunwolves were awful at first but they are more competitive this year. More important to the Asian rugby audience, the 2019 Rugby World Cup is going to be played in Japan which ought to carry over into a large following of the Sunwolves when other Super Rugby teams visit, if they play all their home games in Japan. Then comes the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, including rugby sevens. That ought to further reinforce rugby in Japan. How about SANZAR taking some of the big TV and gate receipts that ought to happen in Japan and help visitors with travel expenses. If 2020 is a bad season for the Sunwolves on the field and at the gate, then pull the plug. I think this season is too soon, but I’d love to hear from you all.

[jake]

I think this season is too soon
..absolutely ray
..the cut happens from 2021
..still getting over the dumping of western force
..sunwolves kept their spot instead

[Raystef5845]

Right on Jake.

I guess we should have been clued in that a Japan Super Rugby team was temporary but Argentina would be welcomed longer when SANZAR became SANZAAR and not SANZAJAR. So, they demanded that Australia dump a team (the Western Force) to take in the Sunwolves and now that the Sunwolves will be dumped starting in 2021, they don’t suggest that Australia should get back their fifth team. The Japan Rugby Football Union apparently started it all by saying that they could not underwrite the Sunwolves after 2020, even though they ought to be swimming in rugby money after the 2019 World Cup and 2020 Olympic rugby sevens. Just where is all that rugby money going to go? I have a guess.

Starting in 2021, Super Rugby will have a round robin for 14 teams with no conferences, meaning that in year one there will 7 home games and 6 away games for some teams and 6 home games and 7 away games for the rest; followed in year two by the reverse schedule to balance home-away games every two years combined. Still, there will be a mismatched schedule each year where the luck of the draw will help some teams make the new six-team playoffs. The top two will get a bye for the first playoff week. If Australia got a fifth team, a 15-team round robin would have home-away balance every year for the 14 games.

[sportzcaster]

ACT Brumbies coach Dan McKellar says he is "dumbfounded" by the decision to axe the Japan Sunwolves at a time he believes rugby in Asia is about to experience a massive boom.

The Sydney Morning Herald

[kiwiz]

The South African teams have been vocal in the past about their displeasure in travelling to Singapore & Japan to play the Sunwolves
Wonder if that has any bearing

[Raystef5845]

The South African teams have been vocal in the past about their displeasure in travelling to Singapore & Japan to play the Sunwolves
Wonder if that has any bearing

You got that right. Look at the name change from SANZAR to SANZAAR. South Africa, SA, appears first in both versions and the new name resembles SA words like Africaans and Transvaal. They do have clout and you are right that that has a lot to do with the planned demise of the Sunwolves. They do have a serious point too. I was curious about the actual miles traveled. I took one city in each country: Cape Town, Sydney, Christchurch, Tokyo and Buenos Aires. From Google I got airline distances and I added the distances from each country to the other four. South Africa teams travel 27,000 miles while Australia and New Zealand teams travel 20,000 miles. Actually, it’s worse for Japan (31,000) and Argentina (29,000). By dropping Japan, distances equalize to South Africa and Argentina (18,000 miles), Australia (15,000) and New Zealand (14,000).

Still, I agree completely with Brumbies coach Dan McKellar that rugby is about to become huge in the Asia market. SANZAAR doesn’t need to beg the Japan Rugby Football Union to please, please underwrite the Sunwolves. SANZAAR ought to be negotiating big money TV contracts with the major Asian TV networks to carry all Super Rugby games, incentivized by the Sunwolves and especially by being able to advertise Super Rugby when they carry the Rugby WC in 2019 and rugby sevens at the 2020 Olympics. SANZAAR ought to be able to earn all the money they need to help with travel and have lots left over.

I get it that having a Northern Hemisphere team in a predominantly Southern Hemisphere competition is a square peg in a round hole but the idea was to dig the round hole into gold bars.

[Raystef5845]

For round 6, I had the much-improved Blues and Reds as favourites whilst the bookies had them as underdogs. They both won and their supporters cashed nice value bets. The Sunwolves didn’t help their cause at all by losing 24-37. I thought the Sunwolves would want to show that they do belong in Super Rugby.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Super Rugby winner
Crusaders now in the red with most bookies
Crusaders record 19 match-winning streak has been halted courtesy NSW Waratahs
Bookies unmoved, Crusaders still odds-on

[kiwiz]

The improved Blues host the improved Sunwolves.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
Blues & Sunwolves both winners this weekend
Sonny Bill getting back in the mix
Sunwolves first Super Rugby win in Australia

[Raystef5845]

A number of teams in Round 7 seemed determined to show that past lack of form didn’t mean anything. The Sunwolves were disappointing at home in Round 6, at exactly the time they needed to show they belonged in Super Rugby. In Round 7 they changed course and beat the Waratahs away, a week after the same Waratahs had beaten the Crusaders. The Rebels lost both games in South Africa in Rounds 5 and 6. They returned home and had an honest team meeting about their dismal performances. They decided to step up in Round 7 and they did just that by beating the Reds away.

Having lost to the Waratahs in round 6, the Crusaders returned to form in round 7, beating the Hurricanes. It was great to see Sonny Bill, a true sportsman, have a winning game with the much-improved Blues.

Home advantage ceased to exit in Round 7 as five of six visitors won.

Let’s see what surprises round 8 has in store for us.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Highlanders v Hurricanes tonight should be a bottler
Hurricanes narrow win their round 4 clash

[Raystef5845]

Value bets were cashed in round 8 by supporters of the Reds, Sharks and Blues. Congrats to the improved Rebels who stand second in the combined table and to the Blues who stand fifth. The Jaguars couldn’t win at home in round 7 but scored late to beat the Bulls away in round 8. Never give up!

Good luck with round 9,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Highlanders v Hurricanes tonight should be a bottler
Hurricanes narrow win their round 4 clash
Thanks to the brilliance of Ardie Savea,,Hurricanes scrap home in a thriller

[Raystef5845]

The inconsistent Jaguars have played 8 games and only played as expected in 3. Fortunately, we can’t be surprised this week: they aren’t playing.

In round 9, Stormers and Brumbies supporters cashed value bets.

In round 10, the Highlanders-Blues game ought to be a great one to watch.

Good luck with round 10,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

In round 10, the Highlanders-Blues game ought to be a great one to watch.
Ray Stefani
Yes looking forward to the game Ray
Blues won their last encounter 33-26
Highlanders have lost five straight but they've been competitive

[Raystef5845]

Round 10 was a winner. On one hand, only three of my six favourites won. On the other hand, the one holding the money, underdog wins in two of those games by the Lions and Reds made for winning value bets. The other winning value bet (making it three from three) went to Waratahs supporters.

Good luck with round 11.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The Sunwolves are hard to understand. We chatted about the idea that dropping the Sunwolves could be a loss of potential revenue in that Asia could become a rugby hotbed after the 2020 Olympics. To help their cause, the Sunwolves had a 2-2 record playing away. The problem is that they have rewarded their home fans with a 0-6 record, including their 0-52 loss in round 11. They are hopelessly unpredictable.

At least the Sharks and Jaguars did reward their supporters with cashed value bets.

Good luck with round 12.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 12 went well. My favourites won 5 and tied 2. The Brumbies supporters cashed a value bet.

There are some massive matchups in lucky round 13.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I called last round “lucky” round 13. I don’t like to be superstitious, because that would be bad luck, right? On the other hand, the 30% profit on turnover for value bets got adjusted to 12%.

To illustrate how unpredictable this season has been, look at the table. Six teams are within one point, going from third to eighth place. The Lions are the ninth-place team, making them one off from playoff status, even though they have a score differential of -54. There is nothing boring about Super Rugby.

Good luck with round 14.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The crazy season moves on. For example, the Lions stand fifth in the composite table, but have the 13th best score difference.

The Bulls and Blues supporters cashed winning value bets in round 14.

I will be away for a week, so I will not be able to bring you round 16 predictions.

Good luck with round 15.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

When I returned from my trip, I had to double check the round 16 scores. I thought that I might have taken scores from the wrong year (or universe).

In round 16, favourites only won 2 from 7 after winning 6 from 7 in round 15. Did the Crusaders really lose 40-27? Assuming they really did and not in a parallel universe, here is round 17.

Good luck with round 17 of a crazy season.

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Did the Crusaders really lose 40-27? Ray Stefani
Sure did Ray. Big effort by the Chiefs over the final bit. Crusaders led 27-19 at the 43 min mark. They obviously wanted the win more. Now sitting just outside the top 8. Hope they get there. Have a bye next week,,Rebels final round.

[kiwiz]

NZ off to a good start in the U20 World Rugby Championship being held in Argentina
NZ 45 Georgia 13

[kiwiz]

NZ off to a good start in the U20 World Rugby Championship being held in Argentina
NZ 45 Georgia 13
France the defending champions
Australia also off to a good start
Australia 36 Italy 12

[Raystef5845]

In round 17, the Crusaders placed a 66-0 exclamation point on their season after that loss in round 16.

This is an exciting time for many sports. We have, or will have shortly, World Cups in Cricket, FIFA Women’s Soccer, Rugby and Netball. The Rugby U 20 is fun to watch.

I am sending my predictions for round 18, before the playoffs to come. I will be away for the rest of the Super Rugby season so I wish everyone the best. I estimate 15% profit on turnover for this really crazy season. The Jaguars proved that they belong while the Sunwolves proved that they don’t.

Cheers to all,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

France the defending champions
Australia also off to a good start
Australia 36 Italy 12
U20 World Rugby Championship
Australia into the final will be up against France
NZ to playoff for 7th spot :(

[kiwiz]

Rugby World Cup just around the corner
Being held in Japan from 20 September to 2 November
This will be the first time the tournament is to be held in Asia
Will be the ninth Rugby World Cup
Reigning champions New Zealand

[kiwiz]

Rugby World Cup just around the corner
Being held in Japan from 20 September to 2 November
This will be the first time the tournament is to be held in Asia
Will be the ninth Rugby World Cup
Reigning champions New Zealand
$2.30 is about the best you can get for the All Blacks at the moment
Pool B for NZ against South Africa,,Italy,,Namibia & Canada

[Sands]

Super Rugby

Down to the final four, Crusaders $1.48, Hurricanes $7, Jaguares $8 & Brumbies $13.50

[Sands]

Super Rugby

Jaguares $1.60 v Brumbies $2.45
Crusaders $1.26 v Hurricanes $4.40

[Sands]

$2.30 is about the best you can get for the All Blacks at the moment
Pool B for NZ against South Africa,,Italy,,Namibia & Canada
$17.50 available for the Aussies

[Sands]

Super Rugby

Jaguares $1.60 v Brumbies $2.45
Crusaders $1.26 v Hurricanes $4.40
Gee the Hurricanes gave the Crusaders a bit of a scare. Was a good game.

[kiwiz]

Gee the Hurricanes gave the Crusaders a bit of a scare. Was a good game.
It was a good game Sands,,shame the draw didn't allow for a double-sided NZ final

[kiwiz]

U20 World Rugby Championship
Australia into the final will be up against France

Junior Wallabies unlucky
France 24 Australia 23

[kiwiz]

U20 World Rugby Championship
NZ to playoff for 7th spot

Baby Blacks took 7th spot
NZ 40 Ireland 17

[kiwiz]

win some,,lose some

Black Ferns 47 Wallaroos 10 :)
Wallabies 47 All Blacks 26:(

[Raystef5845]

In Round 1, my favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren’t drawn. On the other hand, there was a big surprise when Watford lost 0-3 at home to Brighton. Man U had a big win at home over Chelsea 4-0. Man City opened strong away beating West Ham away, 5-0. I mention those matches because my system makes the biggest adjustments early in the season to catch up with team changes. As a result, there were some big up and down adjustments because of the matches I just mentioned. It’s a good idea to be cautious for next two or three weeks to be sure the adjustments were justified.

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
Sounds good Ray,,cheers

[kiwi]

I'm real glad I stopped betting on the ABs.
A draw against the Boks and a loss to the ball sanders, the send off was a yellow only, would have cost me a stack.
The ABs are on the slide, and it may get worse at the quarter-final stage.

[Sands]

$17.50 available for the Aussies
Now $13 with most bookies

[kiwiz]

win some,,lose some

Black Ferns 47 Wallaroos 10 :)
Wallabies 47 All Blacks 26:(
Black Ferns 37 Wallaroos 8
All Blacks 36 Wallabies 0

That's much better :)

[Sands]

Wales are the new rugby world no. 1 ending the 10-year reign of the All Blacks

Current top 10
1. Wales
2. NZ
3. Ireland
4. South Africa
5. England
6. Australia
7. France
8. Scotland
9. Japan
10. Fiji

[Raystef5845]

Those World Rugby ratings give some really useful info for gambling, much more than just who is ranked higher. World Rugby purposely created the rating system to be predictable. The rating difference is used to get the probability that the higher rated team will beat the lower-rated team, after adding three points to the home team rating. After the game, the ratings are adjusted based on the difference between the actual result and the probability going in. I looked at the last five Rugby WCs. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the non-tied matches. That’s amazing accuracy.

For the WC, add three points to Japan’s rating. Suppose the higher-rated team is d points better. According to World Rugby’s examples, the higher rated team has a probability of winning equal to 0.5 + (d/20). You have to limit that from 0.1 to 0.9.

Let’s look at the current ratings. Wales is tops with 89.43 just barely ahead of NZ with 89.40. That 0.03 advantage means that Wales is .5 + (.03/20) or .5015 likely to beat NZ, making NZ .4985 likely to win. I’d say that’s’ a toss-up. Now, if number 1 Wales (89.43) plays number 3 Ireland (88.69) that 0.74 rating difference means that Wales in .5 + (.74/20) or .537 likely to win. The fair decimal odds would be 1/.537 or 1.86, so you could bet on Wales if is you can find a price of more than 1.86.

When we get closer to the WC, I’ll take the last pre-WC Rugby World ratings and give you the probability of the match-ups in the group phase. We’ll see what that looks like.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

When we get closer to the WC, I’ll take the last pre-WC Rugby World ratings and give you the probability of the match-ups in the group phase. We’ll see what that looks like.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
That would be great Ray, thanks

[Raystef5845]

I promised to give you the predictions for the group phase of the Rugby World Cup, as soon as we had the pre-WC ratings from World Rugby. The final ratings are in, so I attached the game-by-game probabilities, using World Rugby’s system, and then the fair decimal odds which are equal to 1/probabilities. According to the World Rugby system, they add three rating points to the home team rating and then find the rating difference of each team’s rating minus the opponent’s rating. The probability that the team will win is:

.5 + (rating difference)/20

There is a problem though. World Rugby has to cap the rating difference at +10 (or -10) to keep the probability between 1 and zero. I decided to make the limit 0.99 and 0.01, because having World Rugby predicting a probability of 1 just makes me crazy, and we don’t want that.

There are Groups A, B, C and D, each with 5 teams playing four games in a round-robin, so each group plays 10 games. Of the 40 games, 24 are maxed out with winning probabilities of 0.99 and 0.01. The other 16 games are much more competitive. I noticed that 7 of 10 Group A games are maxed out, compared to 8 of 10 in Group B, 3 of 10 in Group C and 6 of 10 in Group D. Group C should be the most competitive. There aren’t going to be many games worth betting on, but those will be hugely important, and keep the pubs busy. When we reach the quarter-finals, the rest of the games ought to be close, but World Rugby will not update ratings until after the WC, so we have to use pre-WC ratings. Of course, you could make big money on some big upsets and buy the first round.

Cheers
,
Ray Stefani

[Fatcat]

I promised to give you the predictions for the group phase of the Rugby World Cup, as soon as we had the pre-WC ratings from World Rugby. The final ratings are in, so I attached the game-by-game probabilities, using World Rugby’s system, and then the fair decimal odds which are equal to 1/probabilities. According to the World Rugby system, they add three rating points to the home team rating and then find the rating difference of each team’s rating minus the opponent’s rating. The probability that the team will win is:

.5 + (rating difference)/20

There is a problem though. World Rugby has to cap the rating difference at +10 (or -10) to keep the probability between 1 and zero. I decided to make the limit 0.99 and 0.01, because having World Rugby predicting a probability of 1 just makes me crazy, and we don’t want that.

There are Groups A, B, C and D, each with 5 teams playing four games in a round-robin, so each group plays 10 games. Of the 40 games, 24 are maxed out with winning probabilities of 0.99 and 0.01. The other 16 games are much more competitive. I noticed that 7 of 10 Group A games are maxed out, compared to 8 of 10 in Group B, 3 of 10 in Group C and 6 of 10 in Group D. Group C should be the most competitive. There aren’t going to be many games worth betting on, but those will be hugely important, and keep the pubs busy. When we reach the quarter-finals, the rest of the games ought to be close, but World Rugby will not update ratings until after the WC, so we have to use pre-WC ratings. Of course, you could make big money on some big upsets and buy the first round.

Cheers
,
Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Can you check or confirm the link to the attached document. It won’t let me open the link

Cheers

[sportzcaster]

Hi Ray

Can you check or confirm the link to the attached document. It won’t let me open the link

Cheers
worked for me

[Raystef5845]

Fatcat had trouble with the link to the predictions. I am going to try to post directly to this text.

Ray Stefani


Rugby WC Predictions Using Rugby World Ratings (Pwin from .01 to .99)
Team Pwin Fair Odds Team Pwin Fair Odds

Group A
Japan 0.99 1.01 Russia 0.01 100.00
Ireland 0.92 1.08 Scotland 0.08 13.07
Russia 0.29 3.49 Samoa 0.71 1.40
Japan 0.01 86.96 Ireland 0.99 1.01
Scotland 0.99 1.01 Samoa 0.01 100.00
Ireland 0.99 1.01 Russia 0.01 100.00
Japan 0.99 1.01 Samoa 0.01 100.00
Scotland 0.99 1.01 Russia 0.01 100.00
Ireland 0.99 1.01 Samoa 0.01 100.00
Japan 0.44 2.30 Scotland 0.57 1.77

Group B
New Zealand 0.60 1.66 South Afr 0.40 2.52
Italy 0.99 1.01 Namibia 0.01 100.00
Italy 0.99 1.01 Canada 0.01 100.00
South Africa 0.99 1.01 Namibia 0.01 100.00
New Zealand 0.99 1.01 Canada 0.01 100.00
South Africa 0.99 1.01 Italy 0.01 100.00
New Zealand 0.99 1.01 Namibia 0.01 100.00
South Africa 0.99 1.01 Canada 0.01 100.00
New Zealand 0.99 1.01 Italy 0.01 100.00
Namibia 0.49 2.02 Canada 0.51 1.98
 
Group C
France 0.67 1.49 Argentina 0.33 3.04
England 0.99 1.01 Tonga 0.01 100.00
England 0.99 1.01 USA 0.01 100.00
Argentina 0.76 1.31 Tonga 0.24 4.21
France 0.88 1.14 USA 0.12 8.13
England 0.99 1.01 Argentina 0.01 100.00
France 0.93 1.07 Tonga 0.07 15.15
Argentina 0.71 1.42 USA 0.29 3.40
England 0.92 1.09 France 0.08 12.58
USA 0.56 1.80 Tonga 0.44 2.26

Group D
Australia 0.83 1.20 Fiji 0.17 5.92
Wales 0.99 1.01 Georgia 0.01 100.00
Fiji 0.99 1.01 Uruguay 0.01 100.00
Georgia 0.91 1.10 Uruguay 0.09 10.58
Australia 0.34 2.97 Wales 0.66 1.51
Georgia 0.29 3.41 Fiji 0.71 1.41
Australia 0.99 1.01 Uruguay 0.01 100.00
Wales 0.99 1.01 Fiji 0.01 100.00
Australia 0.99 1.01 Georgia 0.01 100.00
Wales 0.99 1.01 Uruguay 0.01 100.00

[Raystef5845]

The spacing was garbled hopelessly when I tried to paste the word document into the message. I tried changing to pdf but the file was too large for Ozmium. I will attach again and hope the new link will work.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I just noticed that when I upload my soccer and rugby predictions, I have been reusing a file that uses the older version of Word, so I send a .doc file. This time I uploaded the newer version of Word, a .docx file. Maybe Fatcat and others might not have the new version of Word so that's why Fatcat could not use the link. I attached the World Rugby WC predictions converted to .doc.

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Thanks Ray

[Sands]

Latest market World Cup Winner

New Zealand $2.50
South Africa $5.50
England $5.80
Ireland $12.50
Wales $15
Australia $19
France $41
Scotland $100
Argentina $81
Japan $301
Fiji $540
Samoa $1001

Others $2001 & over

[Fatcat]

I just noticed that when I upload my soccer and rugby predictions, I have been reusing a file that uses the older version of Word, so I send a .doc file. This time I uploaded the newer version of Word, a .docx file. Maybe Fatcat and others might not have the new version of Word so that's why Fatcat could not use the link. I attached the World Rugby WC predictions converted to .doc.

Ray Stefani

Thx Ray

This one worked for me. I normally use my iPhone Safari to access it and your previous links weren’t working. On my desktop at home all links work perfectly

Thx

[sportzcaster]

worked for me
also thanks for that info ray

[sportzcaster]

world cup pool-c

france $1.87 v argentina
france v argentina +5.5 $1.62

[sportzcaster]

world cup pool-b

new zealand $1.51 v south africa
new zealand v south africa +10.5 $1.53

[sportzcaster]

world cup pool-a

ireland -4.5 $1.62 v scotland
ireland v scotland +11.5 $1.62

[kiwiz]

RWC,,who are the heavies?

Tonga have both the heaviest player & heaviest forward pack in Japan
Tonga's pack average forward weight at 118.53kg
The All Blacks' average weight is 114kg with the English slightly heavier at 115.4kg
The average weight for a player across all forward packs is 112.37kg

Heaviest players

Ben Tameifuna (Tonga) – 153kg
Taniela Topou (Australia) – 135kg
Michael Alaatoa (Samoa) – 132kg
Eroni Mawi (Fiji) – 131kg
Tomas Francis (Wales) – 130kg
Leroy Atalifo (Fiji) – 130kg
Ofa Tu'ungafasi (New Zealand) – 129kg
Atu Moli (New Zealand) – 127kg
Billy Vunipola (England) – 127kg

[sportzcaster]

world cup pool-d

australia +3.5 $1.91 v wales
australia v wales $1.85

[Sands]

Latest market World Cup Winner

New Zealand $2.50
South Africa $5.50
England $5.80
Ireland $12.50
Wales $15
Australia $19
France $41
Scotland $100
Argentina $81
Japan $301
Fiji $540
Samoa $1001

Others $2001 & over
Market update
New Zealand $2.32
England $5.75
South Africa $5.80
Wales $11.50
Ireland $16.50
Australia $23
France $40
Scotland $200
Argentina $240
Japan $251
Italy $1001

Others $2001 & over

[sportzcaster]

world cup pool-a

japan +7.5 $1.61 v scotland
japan v scotland $1.67

[punts2]

Not really surprised Japan through to the final 8
15 players in their 31-man squad having qualified on the basis of three-year residency
They've done their homework ;)

[Raystef5845]

I was curious what would happen when I posted fair odds for the 40 group-phase matches of the Rugby World Cup before game 1, using the World Rugby Ratings and their method of getting the probability of winning. After I posted, I looked at the then bookie odds posted for all 40 matches. I only found 6 value bets, one of which got cancelled by the typhoon. Of the remaining 5, 3 cashed for a 63% profit on turnover. The 3 profitable matches were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentine and Wales beat Australia. The losses were when South Africa lost to New Zealand and the USA lost to Tonga.

I just took the updated ratings posted by World Rugby. Here are what the fair odds would be, using the World Rugby Ratings and adding 3 points to Japan’s rating for the World Rugby home advantage.

England 1.37 versus Australia 3.71
New Zealand 1.33 versus Ireland 4.04
Wales 1.14 versus France 7.97
South Africa 1.87 versus Japan 2.14

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Thankyou Ray

[Sands]

Market update
New Zealand $2.32
England $5.75
South Africa $5.80
Wales $11.50
Ireland $16.50
Australia $23
France $40
Scotland $200
Argentina $240
Japan $251
Italy $1001

Others $2001 & over
Market update
New Zealand $2.22
South Africa $4.70
England $6.40
Wales $12
Ireland $24
Australia $32
France $44
Japan $67

[sportzcaster]

england -4.5 $1.53 v australia
england v australia +10.5 $1.91

[sportzcaster]

new zealand -9.5 $1.91 v ireland
new zealand v ireland +15.5 $1.53

[sportzcaster]

wales -5.5 $2.00 v france
wales v france +7.5 $1.91

[sportzcaster]

japan +20.5 $1.62 v south africa
japan v south africa -16.5 $1.91

[Sporty]

If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.

[UselessBettor]

If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.


England's game plan was simple. Territory. If in our own half then kick it to the other end. They just decided that could defend and mistakes would eventually come. They did a great job executing it.

I thought NZ would change their game plan second half to kick it down Englands end but they decided to play with ball in hand and I think this cost them. There were just too many mistakes.

[gum stumpa]

If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.
Unlikely, Jones contracted with England till 2021

[Raystef5845]

If you think you or someone you know is too small for some sport, think about scrum half Faf de Klerk who we will see in the Rugby World Cup Final, playing for South Africa against England. He’s 172cm tall and weighs 88kg. The physios are all bigger. De Klerk will be all over the pitch.

The latest World Rugby rankings have the top four, in order as: England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Wwe can calculate fair odds using their system.

England 1.82, South Africa 2.22

New Zealand 1.57, Wales 2.75

Enjoy the final. A few pints might disappear.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[sportzcaster]

rwc

new zealand -17.5 $1.67 v wales
new zealand v wales +25.5 $1.62

[sportzcaster]

rwc

england -4.5 $1.72 v south africa
england v south Africa +9.5 $1.67

[kiwi]

If you think you or someone you know is too small for some sport, think about scrum half Faf de Klerk who we will see in the Rugby World Cup Final, playing for South Africa against England. He’s 172cm tall and weighs 88kg. The physios are all bigger. De Klerk will be all over the pitch.

The latest World Rugby rankings have the top four, in order as: England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Wwe can calculate fair odds using their system.

England 1.82, South Africa 2.22

New Zealand 1.57, Wales 2.75

Enjoy the final. A few pints might disappear.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

de Klerk was brilliant even tackling the biggest of the Pommie forwards, a wee magic man.
That was a fantastic result, the pub I was at was rocking and we were all cheering on the Boks:D

[punts2]

Wales are the new rugby world no. 1 ending the 10-year reign of the All Blacks

Current top 10
1. Wales
2. NZ
3. Ireland
4. South Africa
5. England
6. Australia
7. France
8. Scotland
9. Japan
10. Fiji
Well it's all over
And the final rugby world rankings (top 10)

1. South Africa
2. NZ
3. England
4. Wales
5. Ireland
6. Australia
7. France
8. Japan
9. Scotland
10. Argentina

[Raystef5845]

What a great final! That was worth every pint. Kudos to Springboks Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, among many, many others.

I didn’t know what to expect when I used the World Rugby ratings to calculate fair odds for the Rugby World Cup. The ratings did really well. I posted fair odds for the 40 group stage games, using the pre-world cup ratings. I used their updated ratings to give you the 4 quarter final games and later the first place and third place games. I found 6 value bets from the 46 games, 4 of which cashed for an 81% profit on turnover. The winning bets included South Africa over England in the final. Earlier winning bets were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentina and Wales beat Australia. Losing value bets were when the USA failed to beat Tonga and South Africa failed to beat New Zealand.

If you want to use the World Rugby ratings yourself for an international, just add three rating points to the home team rating. The probability of a team winning (after adjusting the home team rating) is

P = 0.5 + (team rating – opponent rating)/20.

Limit that to the range .5 to .95. The fair decimal odds would be 1/P.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

If you want to use the World Rugby ratings yourself for an international, just add three rating points to the home team rating. The probability of a team winning (after adjusting the home team rating) is

P = 0.5 + (team rating – opponent rating)/20.

Limit that to the range .5 to .95. The fair decimal odds would be 1/P.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani
Thanks Ray

[Fatcat]

What a great final! That was worth every pint. Kudos to Springboks Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, among many, many others.

....

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

You going to have a crack at Super Rugby again this year? Hope so. Look forward to your great predictions for 2020

Cheers

[Raystef5845]

Hi Ray

You going to have a crack at Super Rugby again this year? Hope so. Look forward to your great predictions for 2020

Cheers
Hi Fatcat. Thanks for the reminder. Sure, I wouldn't miss Super Rugby for anything. I'm starting the new season setup right now!

Cheers,

Ray

[Raystef5845]

Here we go with another entertaining season.

My ratings start where we left off after last year's final. It takes about 4 weeks to adjust to all the new players and coaching ideas.

Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Cheers Ray,,thanks

Would you believe,,every single player contracted to the Sunwolves last season,,bar three,,is no longer at the club
Those remaining are Jaba Bregvadze,,Tom Rowe & Hencus van Wyk

Most interesting addition is Ben Te’o
He is a veteran of eight NRL seasons & three State of Origin series
Switched to Rugby in 2014,,playing for Leinster,,Worcester Warriors & Toulon since
Will probably be their player to watch

[kiwiz]

NZR will persist with Super Rugby rest protocols for top players this year

Two games off (on top of each teams' two byes)
No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count)
A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds & including load building e.g. 40 minutes,,then 60,,then 80

[kiwiz]

NZR will persist with Super Rugby rest protocols for top players this year

Two games off (on top of each teams' two byes)
No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count)
A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds & including load building e.g. 40 minutes,,then 60,,then 80
Could be some changes to the rest policies next season though with three fewer regular season games for each team & the switch to the round robin format

[kiwiz]

Super Rugby 2020 winner

Crusaders $3.20
Chiefs $5.00
Hurricanes $9.00
Blues $14.00
Highlanders $15.00

[Raystef5845]

Those Sunwolves off-season moves really aid off in Round 1. If anyone bet on them , they got a nice 6.00 payoff.

Here comes Round 2 with the usual comment that we need to see how the ratings move due to off-season changes for a few weeks.

The plan for a round-robin schedule next season has some issues that come with it. The home-away schedule only balances after every two seasons.

Australia teams will have 3 games against domestic opponents instead of 6. NZ teams will have 4 games against domestic opponents instead of 8.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 2 had some exciting moments. The Chiefs beat the Crusaders and have made a lot of upward movement since the end of last season. The Hurricanes made a stirring comeback in the last minutes to beat the Jaguars away.

We need to give the teams two more rounds to make sure the big ratings movements over the first two Rounds are justified.

Enjoy Round 3.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Round 4 will again test the new ratings and adjust where teams have moved up or down compared to last season. There have been some major changes in Rounds 1-3. Wait until round 5 to consider betting.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

[Sands]

Current market - Super Rugby

Crusaders $3
Chiefs $4
Hurricanes $12
Jaguares $13
Stormers $15
Blues $23
Sharks $23
Highlanders $34
Brumbies $41
Lions $126
Rebels $151
Reds $151
Bulls $201
Waratahs $201
Sunwolves $501

[Raystef5845]

We are getting used to adjustments during the first four rounds because teams change a lot over the break. This year's adjustments were among the largest ever. I think we now have a good understanding for this year's teams.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

After Round 5, I think we need to be cautious for at least another round. There were unexpected upsets in Round 5. Surprisingly, the Australian teams are now in the bottom half of the combined table. Lets see if the teams justify their ratings in Round 6 or make some moves. Bet conservatively.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I think the ratings have settled. My favourites won 6 of 7 games, so we are as ready as we will ever be after adjusting for between-season changes. The Sunwolves even kept their opponent under 60 points for a change.

Good luck with Round 7.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The 14 day quarantine required after travel to Australia and New Zealand have caused SANZAR to cancel Super Rugby for "awhile", but we don't know how long "awhile" is. Round 8 was to have 7 matches, six of which involved international travel. The English Premier League says it will resume 4 April, but all matches there are withing England.

Round 7 went well, except for cancelling the Jaguars-Highlanders match. My favourites won 5 of 6. Two values bets cashed for Bulls and Sharks backers.

I think I see a value bet. According to US authorities, you have a 99.9% probability of surviving the flu. According to extensive testing in Korea, you have a 99.4% probability of surviving COVID-19 (they didn't just test people with severe symptoms). Since the sports leagues and airlines seem to think you will soon drop dead if you go to a sporting event and do something fun, I like the 99.4% probability of living. I would say that enjoying your life is a value bet.

I am trying to type this from 2 meters away, but my arms are not long enough.

Stay healthy,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Still no Super Rugby but NZ teams will play domestic series from 13 June
Our five Super Rugby teams - Blues,,Chiefs,,Hurricanes,,Crusaders & Highlanders will play each other home & away over 10 weeks,,with two matches every weekend in the 'Super Rugby Aotearoa’ tournament.

[Raystef5845]

Still no Super Rugby but NZ teams will play domestic series from 13 June
Our five Super Rugby teams - Blues,,Chiefs,,Hurricanes,,Crusaders & Highlanders will play each other home & away over 10 weeks,,with two matches every weekend in the 'Super Rugby Aotearoa’ tournament.

It'll be really interesting if one round-robin of Super Rugby Aotearoa is played in empty stadiums and one is played with crowds to see what the psychological home advantage of a home crowd is. It'll be interesting to see how teams have changed in fitness and cohesion. Australia may have a similar domestic round-robin.

I had to look up "Aotearoa" which turns out to mean "New Zealand" in Maori. I found out that the Maori word for "Australia" is "Ahitereiria", although I figure that there are some unprintable names the Maori use when they play against Aussie teams.

Stay well everyone.

[Raystef5845]

I thought I would have a go at the Aotearoa Super Rugby, all-New Zealand competition. I updated my schedule too late to get it to you last week. All teams started where they left off after Round 7. I had the Highlanders as underdogs at home but worthy of a value bet which cashed nicely. I had the Blues to win at home, which they did, but there was no value bet on that game. This week, the Highlanders are favoured due to home advantage although they are lower rated. The crowds were huge last week, so that ought to give some home advantage. We have to see how the layoff affected the Crusaders.

I was curious about the name Aotearoa. Thanks to Google Translate and Google, I learned that Ao Tea Roa means a Long White Cloud. An early Polynesian boat noticed a long white cloud on the horizon and figured there must be an island there. That’s how they found North Island, so they named New Zealand Ao Tea Roa, Long White Cloud. I think the competition ought to be called Te Tini Nui, which means The Huge Crowd because that’s what they had last week. It was really fun to see a live sports event with people enjoying themselves.

Stay well, everyone!

[Raystef5845]

It's great to have live rugby again. Here are the next two games. Australia's version starts next month.

[Raystef5845]

Here we go with Round 3 of Aotearoa.

It’s hard to have good and bad luck average out with only two games per week, and maybe only one value bet, if that. When the Australian Super Rugby series starts, at least we will have four games per week.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Be cautious because we don't know how the layoff has affected the Australia teams. The Western Force are an even bigger mystery next week.

Here comes Round 4 of Aotearoa, complete with fans!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The Western Force now re-enters competition. I took their last rating from the end of the 2017 season, but we have no idea how good the team is today. It will take 3 or 4 games to have a good idea, so be cautious with them until later.

The rating system takes the season as a whole, not just the recent Aotearoa matches and the Australian matches
.
Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

There are many of reasons to be cautious when betting. We need at least this week and next week to get a good handle on the strengths of the Australian team, post-Covid. The Western Force haven’t played recently. They have affected the Waratahs rating from last week and this week they will affect the Reds. After week 4, ratings ought to be more accurate. The whole season is counted.

The home teams have only outscored visitors by 6 points for the 14 games since we restarted. That’s 0.4 points per game. That indicates a big change playing under Covid conditions. There had been more than a 4-point advantage per game, playing at home, before Covid. I may have to change the home advantage for the rest of the season.

Good luck and good health

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Here we go with another entertaining season.

Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani
We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.

[Raystef5845]

Here we go with another entertaining season.
Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.
Cheers,
Ray Stefani

We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.

I wrote that before Round 1. The Sunwolves started great in Round 1, winning over the Rebels. Then, in true Sunwolves fashion, they lost the next five before the season was halted, thanks to the toughest opponent ever, Covid. I kept the season rolling, statistically speaking, with AOTEAROA and AU competitions. The ratings are cumulative for all games played, including the rejuvenated Force. Here are all 16 ratings. The Sunwolves are last. Too bad. Like you wrote, we will never know if they could have had a comeback in AU competition..

Computer Ratings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLACE TEAM RATING
1 Crusaders(N) 106.4
2 Sharks(S) 104.3
3 Blues(N) 103.1
4 Hurricanes(N) 100.3
5 Jaguars 99.6
6 Stormers(S) 98.2
7 Chiefs(N) 97.4
8 Brumbies(A) 96.2
9 Reds(A) 94.0
10 Bulls(S) 90.3
11 Highlanders(N) 90.3
12 Rebels(A) 89.8
13 W.Force(A) 84.7
14 Waratahs(A) 82.9
15 Lions(S) 82.1
16 Sunwolves 67.1


[Raystef5845]

I mentioned a few weeks ago, that since restarting, the home advantage has dropped quite a bit, point-wise, from 4.7 points per game down to 1. I reran the rounds since we restarted and got better results by a little bit. This week's predictions are with the lower home advantage.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

In 22 games since the restart, the visitors have now outscored the home teams. Three of four visitors are favourites this week, so the odd trend should continue.

Good luck in this weirdest of years.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

AOTEAROA is winding down, with one round remaining after this round. AU will have 4 more rounds followed by two playoff rounds.

The oddity is home disadvantage. Visitors have outscored the home teams by 2 points per game for the 26 games since we restarted. The good news is that 80% of my favourites have won. There have been rather few value bets and that is a problem when you want to have good and bad luck average out.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Last week I mentioned that the home teams had been outscored by the visitors for the 26 games since the restart. In round 16, my two away favourites both lost, but the home team Rebels and Waratahs both cashed value bets, so I am happy with that. All four home teams won, outscoring the visitors by 64 points to go ahead point-wise for the new season.

Here comes the last AOTEAROA round. AU has five more rounds after this week.

Good luck and also keep beating COVID,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Covid won one game in round 17, beating the Blues and Crusaders who were given an official draw. AOTEAROA is now over.

Five AU rounds remain: rounds 8, 9, and 10, followed by 2 two playoff rounds.

The Force hasn't lived up to its name, but then they were just thrown together, so we shouldn't expect much.

Good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I don't think we have to worry about the Force's playoff chances, but playing them sure helps other teams.

With only two games per week, you may only have one value bet. Luck can't even out over several bets, so it may be best not to bet unless you have a really strong feeling about a game.

After AU Round 10, the playoffs start with one game for each of the final two weeks.

Good luck and stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

We are down to the last AU round before the playoffs. The Reds and Brumbies are in the playoffs, so they don't care what happens in their match, but they sure don't want any injuries.

With a win and bonus point against the hapless Force, the Rebels will make the qualifying final versus the Reds. We'll see if the Force can surprise us and muster a decent enough game to end with at least some credibility, by stopping that bonus point.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The Force showed a lot of integrity, considering the way they played their final match after poor results earlier. They didn’t just deny the Rebels of a bonus point: they nearly kept the Rebels out of the playoffs altogether. It took that last minute try and score-difference-tie-breaker conversion to put the Rebels through.

The last games should be pretty entertaining. Then comes the real guesswork. What will Super Rugby look like in 2021?

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[kiwiz]

Thanks for all your input Ray
Much appreciated

[kiwiz]

Then comes the real guesswork. What will Super Rugby look like in 2021?
At this point in time Ray with Covid-19 continuing to make international travel an unlikely conveyance through the early part of next year,,at the very least,,it seems likely that both NZ & Australia will open the 2021 season with “local” franchise competitions

[kiwiz]

Then possibly conclude with a trans-Tasman finals-type playoffs series.
Maybe Japan could also be included in this,,should the pandemic,,politics & timing allow.

[Raystef5845]

Here comes the last prediction for the “season” or whatever we just had. We should see a really competitive final.

So, what will 2021 bring for super rugby. Here is what I would like to see, so much so, that I sent a detailed suggestion to SANZAAR. Considering that travel restrictions won’t be ending any time soon, I’d like to see the season start with simultaneous 10-week domestic double round robins for Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. If Australia sticks with the Force, then NZ and Australia would both have completely domestic competition. SA has to decide if they like SANZAAR or SANZAR, the extra “A” being Argentina in their 10 weeks.

Next, the top three in each country would be shuffled into three groups where the number three from one country would play at the number two in another country with the winner would play at the number one in the third country. The three number ones would play a round robin for the championship. I gave them some ways to work around quarantines. It was worth a try.

IF SA bugs out, then the Trans-Tasman AU-NZ version of what I wrote above could be played, as was suggested in comments.

Stay well everyone and I’ll see you next “season”.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Hi to all,

Here we go for another fun Super Rugby season. I suppose we can’t call the organization SANZAAR anymore because the SA (South Africa) and an A (Argentina) are gone. It’s NZAR, I suppose.

We will start the way we ended last season. There will be separate double round-robin tournaments for Australia and New Zealand. That will take 10 rounds each of two games per week. The schedule is slightly off so we start with one round of two Australian games, nine rounds of four games each and one round when New Zealand finishes their tournament.

After those 40 games comes a remarkable 25 game Trans-Tasman competition. Each Australian team plays each New Zealand team over 5 weeks of 5 games each. For weeks 1, 2, 4 and 5, teams play twice at home and twice away. In the middle comes week 3, where all games are played at one location over a weekend. The details haven’t been revealed.

The season will end with a championship game between the top two teams in the combined table, as hosted by the top team.

I am trying to imagine having a COVID breakout and trying to clear a stadium of rugby fans. There would probably be more scrums than in the game.

Good luck and good health to all!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here is our first full week of four matches.

For the first 3 rounds or so, always be cautious to see if if the teams are playing as expected from last season's ratings, since players, coaches and strategy can change. We are off to a good start, considering that both favourites won last week.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

So far so good: all six of my favourites have won.

Considering that there was so little time between seasons, it makes sense that team ratings wouldn't change much from last season’s ratings. Also, they just finished last season’s domestic round-robins and are starting this season's domestic round-robins, so again, there is continuity we don’t usually have.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

So far so good. Nine of my 10 favourites have one. Force followers cashed a value bet last week.

Here is Round 4. Good luck.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Something seems to have happened to my posting of Round 5. I don't see it. My apologies.

Here is Round 6.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The ratings got shuffled a bit due to big upsets of the Highlanders and Blues in Round 6.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The Highlanders rather spectacularly made up for their Round 6 upset loss with a major upset win over the Crusaders. I am surprised that my computer did not say "Correct score and re-enter".

Here is Round 8

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

After Rounds 9, 10 and 11 finish AU and Aotearoa, we will be treated to five rounds of Trans-Tasman matches.

In Round 8, Force supporters were treated to a value bet payoff off with decimal odds of 3.75.

Good luck with Round 9,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

The schedule I copied from SANZAAR before Round 1 was wrong for Round 9. The Rebels are home to the Brumbies in Round 9. Be sure to use this prediction and not my last one. The other three games are unchanged.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I don't usually like having half of my favorites lose but that was just fine for Round 9. The people that placed value bets on the underdog Highlanders and Chiefs cashed those bets. That made the week's profit 75% on turnover, bringing the season profit to 32% on turnover.

Good luck with Round 10.

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For Week 11, we have the only semifinal AU game and the last (8th) AOTEAROA round. In following week we will have the championship games for AU and AOTEAROA followed by five rounds of Trans-Tasman games.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

He are the two championship games to be followed by the Trans-Tasman series. Enjoy the games.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

Here are my Trans-Tasman predictions for the first round of 5. Be cautious becasue we have not had a Trans-Tasman match in over a year. Aussie teams and New Zealand teams may have shifted relative to each other while we only had domestic matches to use to update the ratings.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

I am concerned about betting on the Trans-Tasman series at this point. At the start of a typical Super Rugby season, we usually look at the first 3 or 4 weeks and wait until the ratings have adjusted from the previous year. Of course, each team has already played 8 domestic matches, but we have only had one set of Trans-Tasman matches in over a year. I am seeing really large bookmaker underdog odds offered on some AU teams. If those odds are justified as compared to the current AU ratings, then some AU team ratings should fall and become more accurate relative to the New Zealand teams. There might only be one or two Trans-Tasman weeks left after ratings have adjusted, but we don’t want to make bad bets in haste. I advise being very cautious at this point.

Best wishes,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

On one hand, having all of my last 10 favourites win was great, but at the expense of all the AU teams. This week, based mostly on AU and AOTEAROA matches, I have this year's AU winner Reds to beat the Chiefs, helped by the Reds’ home advantage. We'll see.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

All 15 of my Trans-Tasman favourites have won so far, including a bookie upset win by the Reds. The five New Zealand teams now have higher ratings than the Australian teams, but with home advantage, some AU teams can be favoured.

Good luck with Trans-Tasman Round 4.

Ray Stefani
,

[Raystef5845]

All 20 of my favourites have won in the first four Trans-Tasman rounds, including upset wins by the Reds and Brumbies, the only AU wins so far.

We have just this last Trans-Tamans round left and then the Trans-Tasman championship game.

Good luck and good health!

Ray Stefani

[Raystef5845]

For the last two seasons before COVID took over, the AU teams won 30% of Trans-Tasman games. This time, the AU teams won just 2 of the 25 Trans-Tasman games (just 4%). At least 24 of my 25 favourites did win.

Here is another oddity. Even though all 5 New Zealand teams finished ahead of all 5 Australian teams in the Trans-Tasman standings, the two teams that played in the AOTEAROA final didn't make the Trans-Tasman final.

At least the value bets following the rules I gave you, finished with a 22% profit in turnover.

All the best to my rugby friends. Have a healthy future, one and all.

Ray Stefani

[Davi]

France $3.70
New Zealand $3.75
South Africa $5.50
Ireland $6
England $11
Australia $12
Argentina $29
Wales $41
Scotland $51
Fiji $151
Japan $301
Samoa $501
Tonga $501
Italy $501
Georgia $751
Portugal $1501
Chile $1501
Namibia $1501
Romania $1501
Uruguay $1501


Scheduled to take place in France from 8 September to 28 October 2023 in nine venues across the country.